I am back after a brief hiatus last week. We went 1-2 (-1.1u) last week and that puts us to 11-7 (+4.36u). I show units and unit size and we are up on a profit in 2023. We have three best bets for a great Week Five slate of college football.
Florida vs Kentucky (-1.5) O/U (44.5) 12 PM EST
We have a great SEC showdown in the 12 PM slate, as we have 22nd ranked Florida going to Kentucky to take on the Wildcats. Kentucky is 4-0 but haven’t played a tough team yet. With a trip to Georgia on the schedule next week, this is a lookahead spot for certain. This Kentucky offense does average 38 points per game which is 25th in the country. They are also just outside the top 100 in total yards of offense per game. Kentucky’s defense is fantastic against the run as they allow 77.5 yards per game which is 21st in the country.
As for the Gators, they are coming in off a great three game home stand that included a win over Tennessee. This offense found a groove, but can it carry over to their road games? They rank in the top 100 in the country in total yards of offense, passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, and points per game. Florida’s offense has been good, but their defense is their bread and butter. They rank top 30th in rushing yards allowed per game and total yards of offense allowed per game. This will be the toughest defense that Kentucky has seen this season.
Betting Trends
-Florida 1-8 straight up in their last 9 road games.
-Florida 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs Kentucky.
-The under is 11-2 in Kentucky’s last 13 games.
-The under is 7-1 in Kentucky’s last 8 home games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Kentucky -114 for 1 unit. The Gators have dominated this rivalry straight up over the last 20 games. However, the Gators have had a poor showing in their only road game this season. I think both defenses are going to play well, but I love the Wildcats at home to get the win. Take the Wildcats as I trust Leary at quarterback more than I trust Graham Mertz.
LSU (-2.5) vs Ole Miss (O/U 66.5) 6 PM EST
We have two high-powered offenses ready to go toe to toe with one another, with the LSU Tigers coming into Ole Miss looking to give them their second straight loss. The LSU offense is 7th in total yards of offense per game (542.8). They also rank 10th in points per game with 42.8 points per game. LSU is fantastic on third down conversions as they convert 58% of their third down attempts which is 7th in the country. Jayden Daniels has thrown for 1,296 passing yards (5th in the nation) and has 14 total touchdowns to go along with 2 interceptions on the season. This offense has been great, but they will need their defense to be big time in this matchup here.
This Ole Miss offense struggled last week against a good Alabama defense. However, their numbers are still very good. They average 42 points per game (12th in the country) and they average 323.5 passing yards per game. Jaxson Dart has thrown for 1,096 passing yards to go along with 10 total touchdowns and 2 interceptions. I do like this Ole Miss defense especially with the fact that they went toe to toe with Alabama’s defense for that game last week. Their defense allows less than 20 points per game and they will need to keep LSU to under 20 points to win this matchup.
Betting Trends
-LSU is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Ole Miss.
-The over is 8-0 in LSU’s last 8 games.
-Ole Miss is 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games against SEC opponents.
-Ole Miss is 13-7 straight up in their last 20 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking LSU -2.5 -115 and under 66.5 at -110 odds for one unit each. This has Ole Miss falling apart written all over it. We saw the decline from the Rebels in conference play last year against the better teams. LSU is the better team and this has a LSU 27-17 win written all over it. Ride the Tigers and the under in this SEC showdown.
South Carolina vs Tennessee (-11.5) (O/U 63.5) 7:30 PM EST
We all remember last year when South Carolina ended Tennessee’s college football playoff hopes. Tennessee walked into South Carolina and got the doors blown off last season. The Gamecocks won 63- 38 and the Volunteers were not in that game from the jump. South Carolina has a great aerial attack as they are top ten in the country in passing yards per game. Spencer Rattler leads the way with 1,242 passing yards (8th in the country) to go along with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The one thing holding back South Carolina’s offense is their running game. They average 75.8 rushing yards per game which is 245th in the country. If they get their running game going, Tennessee is going to struggle defensively.
The Tennessee Volunteers are not the team that I thought they were going to be this year. Offensively, they rush for 229.5 rushing yards per game (21st in the country). They have four 100+ yard rushers right now and they are led by the dynamic duo of Jaylen Wright who is questionable in this one (6.9 yards per carry) and Jabari Small (6.1 yards per carry). This offense needs Joe Milton to pass more. Milton has thrown for 925 passing yards to go along with 8 passing touchdowns and 1 interception. He also averages 6.1 yards per carry and 4 rushing touchdowns. Tennessee’s defense is alright, but they are going to need to be huge at home in this matchup. This should be a must-have for the Volunteers who are looking to get the ship right heading into SEC play.
Betting Trends
-South Carolina is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
-South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
-The under is 5-1 in Tennessee’s last 6 games overall.
-Tennessee is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking South Carolina +11.5 at -108 odds for one unit. South Carolina beat this team last year outright as a double-digit dog at home. This year, I think they match-up well with Tennessee and we have seen how good South Carolina can play with these top SEC teams. The Gamecocks have a chance to win outright, but they definitely can cover this spread here.
