We bounced back with a winning week last week. 2-1 (+0.9u) and Tennessee should have made us 3-0. The Volunteers were winning and their road woes continued with a loss to Alabama. The record is now at 21-18 (+0.68u) and we are ready to get back to back winning weeks. With that being said, here are my three best bets for the week nine slate of college football games.
Georgia (-14.5) vs Florida (O/U 47.5) 3:30 PM EST
Number One Georgia goes into Jacksonville to take on a Florida team that has surprised some people this season. This Georgia offense has not missed a beat so far this season. The Bulldogs are t-7th in points per game (40.1) and average 515.9 total yards of offense per game (4th in the country). Another great stat about this offense is that they convert 56.7% of their third down attempts. Coming into the year, I wasn’t high on Carson Beck but he has proved me wrong so far this year. Beck has thrown for 2,147 passing yards to go along with 15 total touchdowns and 4 interceptions while completing 73.6% of his passes. Defensively, the Bulldogs continue their success. They allow 171 passing yards per game and rank top 20 in total yards of offense allowed per game. Georgia will create havoc for this Gators offense.
Florida offensively has been good this year. The Graham Mertz-led offense averages 29.1 points per game and they average 442.7 total yards of offense. Mertz has thrown for 1,897 passing yards to go along with 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Florida’s offense also has a two-headed monster in the backfield in Montrell Johnson (5.2 yards per carry) and Trevor Etienne (5.9 yards per carry). Georgia’s run defense is good so these two will have to get this offense going if they want to compete against the Bulldogs. Defensively, the Gators allow 20 points per game and allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game as well. They allow 29.1% of their opponents third down attempts to succeed. If the Gators want to win this game, they need to show up on the defensive side of the football.
Betting Trends
-Over is 4-1 in Georgia’s last five games overall.
-Georgia is 4-2 ATS in their last six games against Florida.
-Over is 4-2 in Florida’s last six games against Georgia.
-Florida is 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking the over 47.5 at -111 odds for one unit. Yes, the Georgia offense will look different without Brock Bowers this week. However, I think the two offenses are going to put points up on the board. If this game was at the Swamp, I would have been all over the Gators. With it being in Jacksonville, I’ll take the over and root for both offenses to score.
Tennessee (-3.5) vs Kentucky (O/U 51.5) 7:00 PM EST
The SEC matchup between Tennessee and Kentucky will be a great game. A night game between these two teams amplifies the matchup that much more. The Volunteers average 31.6 points per game (44th) and average a little bit over 450 total yards of offense (41st in the country). Besides the quarterback play from Joe Milton, they have three guys that rush for over 5 yards per carry. Jaylen Wright (6.5 yards per carry), Jabari Small (5.2 yards per carry), and Dylan Sampson (6.1 yards per carry) are the three names that Kentucky will have to keep an eye on. Defensively, the Volunteers allow 19.4 points per game and allow 336.9 total yards per game this season. Tennessee is going to have to show out defensively to kick their road woes out of their system.
The Wildcats have been a complete offense. They average 31.3 points per game and this offense flourishes with their running game. Ray Davis is the wagon for this Wildcats offense. Davis has rushed for 781 rushing yards (12th in the country) on 7 yards per carry and 8 rushing touchdowns. Kentucky has a veteran quarterback in Devin Leary to lead this offense to the promise land in this one. Defensively, the Wildcats are fantastic against the run. They allow 95.7 rushing yards per game (25th in the nation) while also allowing just 23.6 points per game. The only issue with this Kentucky defense is their secondary. If they can contain Joe Milton, the Wildcats have a real chance to win this game outright.
Betting Trends
-Tennessee 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.
-Tennessee 17-3 straight up in their last 20 games against Kentucky.
-Kentucky is 5-1 straight up in their last 6 home games.
-Over is 4-1 in Kentucky’s last 5 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Kentucky +3.5 at -110 odds for one unit. The Wildcats at home are a good team and will put up a fight against Tennessee. We saw the Volunteers struggle in the second half and I expect this game to be close. I think Kentucky has a chance to win outright, but if they lose it is by a field goal.
Colorado vs UCLA (-17) (O/U 63.5)
The Rose Bowl is going to be rocking Saturday night as Deion Sanders’ Colorado team is coming to town to take on UCLA. Colorado offensively has been great this season. They are the third ranked team in the nation in passing yards per game (346.1) and average 479.6 total yards of offense as well. This offense is led by Shedeur Sanders who has thrown for 2,420 passing yards to go along with 21 passing touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Sanders is going to play really well in his first game at the Rose Bowl. Defensively, the Buffaloes are not good. They allow 35.9 points per game and also allow 486.6 total yards of offense per game. This defense will need to step up big time in order to beat UCLA.
UCLA offensively is a run-heavy team. They rush for 215.1 rushing yards per game and average 485 total yards of offense.
Betting Trends
-Over is 13-5 in Colorado’s last 18 games overall.
-Colorado is 0-5 straight up in their last 5 games at UCLA.
-UCLA is 11-2 straight up in their last 13 home games overall.
-The under is 5-2 in UCLA’s 7 games this season.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Colorado +17 -110 odds for one unit. Yes, the Buffaloes defense is not the best. However, the Colorado offense is going to put up a ton of points this week. UCLA’s offense has struggled in conference and I think Colorado can keep this one close. Ride Colorado +17 to the cash counter.
