After a challenging loss on Friday night, our week stands at 3-3 (-0.04u), while our best bets record remains at 18-14 (+3.89u). We’re maintaining a 56.2% success rate on the season for our best bets, and we’re geared up for a promising Saturday. I’ve got four best bets lined up, including a GAME OF THE YEAR bet. With that in mind, here are my top picks for the week seven college football Saturday slate of games.
Oregon vs Washington (-3) (O/U 67) 3:30 PM EST
This Pac-12 showdown is going to be the game of the week. We have the top two offenses when it comes to total yards of offense per game. Both teams are also in the top five in points per game as well. They combined for 97.6 points per game which is absolutely crazy to think about. Bo Nix vs Michael Penix Jr is the quarterback matchup that we needed to see this season. Washington ranks first in passing yards per game averaging 446.4 passing yards per game. Oregon ranks in the top 20 in all offensive team stats including third down conversion percentage where they are converting on just under 51%. I think Oregon’s offense is the more complete team, but the Huskies air raid is a must watch.
Defensively, the Ducks have the advantage. They are very good against the pass and allow under 300 total yards of offense per game this season. Oregon is 22nd in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. The Oregon defense going up against Michael Penix Jr is the key matchup here. They allow opponents to convert just under 33% of their third down attempts. Washington isn’t a bad defense, but they aren’t on the same level as Oregon in my opinion.
Betting Trends
-Oregon is 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games against Washington.
-Oregon is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against Washington.
-Washington unders are 4-1 in their last 5 games against Oregon overall.
-Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking two plays in this one and one of them is my first GAME OF THE YEAR BET. The first bet is under 67 -111 at one unit. My GAME OF THE YEAR BET is Oregon +130 for three units. The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule as a revenge game from last season. I think Oregon is going to roll against Washington and this is an easy win on the under and then my GAME OF THE YEAR BET is going to be the best bet of the weekend.
Kansas State vs Texas Tech (-1.5) (O/U 58.5) 7:00 PM EST
We have a good Big 12 matchup in Lubbock between the Kansas State Wildcats and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Will Howard and this Kansas State offense is looking to come back after a horrible showing in Stillwater last Friday night. This offense averages 35.8 points per game and converts on 50.7% of their third down attempts (t-16th in the nation). Howard has thrown seven interceptions this season which is more than he had combined in his last two seasons. They need Howard to bounce back in a big way this week against a Texas Tech defense that is not as bad as they have been in years past.
Defensively, the Wildcats are very solid against the run as they allow 93.4 rushing yards per game. The issue with Kansas State’s defense is their secondary against the pass. Kansas State gives up 259 passing yards per game which is not a good number for the Wildcats. They contained Alan Bowman for the most part last week, their run defense let them down giving up 174 rushing yards which is almost double the average they give up usually. If Kansas State wants to win this one, they are going to need a complete defensive effort.
Texas Tech will be without their starting quarterback Tyler Shough who is out with a shoulder injury. Behren Morton is the guy filling in and he looked good last week having four total touchdowns against the Baylor Bears. The Red Raiders are having success in their offensive scheme this season. A big part of that has to be because of running back Tahj Brooks. Brooks averages 6 yards per carry and has 693 rushing yards on the season which is third in the nation. Texas Tech hasn’t had a solid running back with this kind of production in a long time. With Brooks, this offense is hard to stop.
Defensively, the Red Raiders are a lot better than they have been in years past. Yes, they allow 384 total yards of offense per game. They are good against the run and they don’t give up a ton of points. The Red Raiders allow 23 points per game and are making plays in situations that they weren’t doing so a season ago. Big key for Texas Tech’s defense is to maintain pressure on Will Howard and force him to make mistakes.
Betting Trends
-Kansas State is 14-6 straight up in their last 20 games overall.
-Kansas State is 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games at Texas Tech.
-Texas Tech is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
-Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Kansas State +100 for one unit. The Wildcats are due for a big road win and this is the one for them. Texas Tech has been good at home, however I think Kansas State matches up very well against this Red Raiders team both offensively and defensively. Lock in the Wildcats to win as a small underdog.
Miami vs UNC (-3) (O/U 56.5) 7:30 PM EST
Miami is ready to put last week behind them. One of the worst ways to lose happened last week when the Hurricanes lost to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. However, this Miami offense is very good and will put up numbers against a suspect UNC defense. Miami averages 39 points per game (13th in the nation) and 512 total yards of offense per game (7th in the nation). Big names to look out for are Tyler Van Dyke (1,330 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions) and Xavier Restrepo who leads the team in receptions and receiving yards.
Defensively, the Hurricanes rank 3rd in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (58.2) and 25th in total yards of offense allowed per game as well (282). Miami is very good defensively and they allow 37.7% of third down conversions as well. This is the big part of this team and the Hurricanes will be ready to go.
UNC’s offense averages 510.8 total yards of offense per game (9th in the country). This Tarheels offense is led by quarterback Drake Maye. Maye has thrown for 1,629 passing yards to go along with 8 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The Tarheels average 36.6 points per game and convert 56.6% of third down attempts. Nate McCollum and Kobe Paysour are the two big names at receivers for the Tarheels. Defensively, they give up 356.4 total yards per game and are a lot better against the run than they are against the pass. I smell a lot of Tyler Van Dyke stepping back in the pocket and slinging the pigskin this week. UNC’s pass defense is going to need to be a lot better this week.
Betting Trends
-Miami is 5-2 straight up in their last 7 road games overall.
-Miami is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against North Carolina.
-North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
-North Carolina is 13-4 straight up in their last 17 home games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Miami +124 for one unit. The Hurricanes definitely looked ahead last week. They have had this game circled for a while now and are ready to put their A game out there. I think UNC at home has a lot of people all over them. Miami on the road is going to fight and scarp for every little thing. Ride the Hurricanes on the moneyline.
