In the Wednesday slate of MACTION games, we took the ugly under and it did not hit. We are now 24-20 (+1.49u) on the season. The best bets are hitting at a 54.5% clip this season and we have a busy Saturday slate ahead of us. With that being said, here are my four best bets for this Saturday’s slate of college football games.
Kansas State vs Texas (-3.5) (O/U 49.5) 12 PM EST
This Big 12 matchup between Kansas State and Texas has Big 12 title implications on the line. Kansas State’s offense has been fantastic this season so far. They average 472.9 total yards of offense per game (17th) and 37.4 points per game as well (13th). The Wildcats convert 55% of their third down attempts this season and have been effective. As good as Will Howard has been this season, DJ Giddens has been that much more important to the Wildcats. Giddens has rushed for 722 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry and adds 7 touchdowns.
The Wildcats offense is run-heavy and against a good run defense like Texas they could be in some trouble. Defensively, the Wildcats allow 15.9 points per game and give up 361.1 total yards of offense per game as well. Kansas State is good against the run as they allow 109.4 rushing yards per game. If Kansas State is going to win this game, they will have to control the tempo and not let Texas’ offense get in any sort of rhythm.
Texas could be without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers who has a shoulder injury. If he is out, Maalik Murphy will be in line for the start. With Murphy at quarterback, the Longhorns will focus on the run and they have a good guy to lean on. Jonathan Brooks has rushed for 923 rushing yards (t-7th in the nation) on 6.4 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns on the season. The Longhorns average 34.5 points per game and rank in the top 25 in total yards of offense per game (468.3). Defensively, the Longhorns allow 16 points per game and they have been good at holding opponents on third downs. Only 27.8% of third down attempts are converted against this good Texas defense. Texas also allows under 100 rushing yards per game. If the Longhorns are going to win they need their defense to put on a good show.
Betting Trends
-Kansas State is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against Texas.
-Kansas State overs are 4-2 in their last 6 road games overall.
-Texas unders are 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
-Texas unders are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs Kansas State.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking Kansas State +3.5 at -115 odds for one unit. The Wildcats are poised to win this game here at Texas. No Quinn Ewers makes me believe that this Kansas State team has a real chance to win this game outright. Will Howard and this offense will struggle out of the gate, but once they get going the Longhorns are going to struggle to get them off the field.
Oklahoma (-6) vs Oklahoma State (O/U 61.5) 3:30 PM EST
This is a crime that the potential final Bedlam Battle is a 3:30 pm kickoff. However, the Sooners and the Cowboys are poised for a big Big 12 showdown here. Oklahoma averages 41.9 points per game while the Cowboys average 31.1 points per game. The Sooners offense is led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel who has thrown for 2,302 passing yards to go along with 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Oklahoma ranks top 15 in passing yards per game and total yards of offense per game on the season. The Cowboys are good at rushing the football as they average 184.4 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma State’s offense is led by running back Ollie Gordon who has rushed for 1,087 rushing yards on 7.7 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns.
The battle that everyone will talk about is the Oklahoma State rushing offense vs the Sooners rush defense. Oklahoma allows 132.6 rushing yards per game. The Sooners haven’t faced a running back like Ollie Gordon. Gordon is going to cause that Sooners defense some issues. Both defenses are horrible at defending the pass, so as much as Ollie Gordon is going to be vital to the Cowboys offense, Alan Bowman is going to be an x-factor in this one. One key factor here is the defense allowing a first down on third down attempts. Oklahoma allows 28.1% of third down attempts to succeed which is top 50 in the country. The Cowboys allow 42% of third down attempts to succeed. This game will have it all and will be a must-watch in the 3:30 PM slate of games.
Betting Trends
-Oklahoma is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Oklahoma State.
-Sooners overs are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall.
-Oklahoma State is 18-2 straight up in their last 20 home games.
-Oklahoma State overs are 4-1 in their last 5 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bets
I am taking Oklahoma State +6 -111 odds for one unit. The Cowboys are coming off a game where they covered 14+ points in their last game. In the games following that, they are 9-0 straight up and ATS since November 2018. Oklahoma State at home is looking to send the Sooners to the SEC with a loss in what looks to be the final Bedlam battle. I think the Cowboys keep it close and have a chance to win outright.
Washington (-3) vs USC (O/U 77) 7:30 PM EST
This Pac-12 showdown had a lot of potential earlier on this season when this game was originally announced. Now, this game has a lot of pressure on Washington and slim to no pressure on USC. These are two of the best offenses in the country. Washington is first in the nation in passing yards per game while USC is ranked 9th. The Trojans rank 2nd in the nation in points per game and Washington is ranked 9th. Michael Penix Jr is the leader in the Heisman race right now and has thrown 2,945 passing yards to go along with 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams has thrown for 2,646 passing yards to go along with 25 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. This quarterback battle will be the best of the season.
Defensively, both sides have struggled. USC gives us 32.6 points per game and struggles defending the pass. Washington isn’t great against the pass either and the Huskies allow 407.3 total yards of offense per game as well. The Huskies allow 20.6 points per game this season, but they have looked good against the bad teams. Against the good teams, Washington allows a lot of points. This will be a battle of two talented teams that will go toe to toe from the first whistle to the last whistle.
Betting Trends
-Washington is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against USC.
-Washington is 6-0 straight up in their last 6 road games.
-USC is 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games.
-USC is 6-2 straight up in their last 8 home games against Washington.
The Don’s Best Bets
I am taking USC +130 for one unit and under 77 -106 for two units. Washington has everything to lose in this one. All the pressure is on the Huskies in this matchup. USC has nothing to lose, they can’t get to a national title game. Caleb Williams has stunk in the “Big Games” this season. However, at home in this one I love the Trojans to win this game outright and this game to go under as well.
