Welcome to the thirteenth edition for the junior season of The Hangover, where I recap the previous weekend in college football. This week, The Hangover comes to you from Auburn, Alabama, where I watched the 84th Iron Bowl once again come down to a field goal. There is a ton to parse through from this past weekend and what the results mean, so let’s dive in!
Well, things are pretty straightforward now. The two “wildcards” for the College Football Playoff, Alabama and Minnesota, both lost on Saturday, meaning that we’re down to seven teams (Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Georgia, Utah, Baylor, and Oklahoma) for four spots. As we did last year, it’s time to lay all of the possibilities out for the world to see. Here are the various CFP scenarios and who we think would make the playoff based on the results.
LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Utah, and Oklahoma all win.
This seems to be the scenario for which most are preparing. It’s no secret that at this juncture, LSU and Ohio State are locks. Barring 59-0 losses in the SEC and/or Big Ten Championship games, the Tigers and the Buckeyes are in the College Football Playoff. Clemson is probably close to that status, but a loss to likely-ranked Virginia in the title game wouldn’t be the greatest look. Still, it seems that most folks are ready for a debate between Utah and Oklahoma for the final spot. Frankly, I think that the eye test is going to come in huge here. Which team looks better and more dominant during their conference title game? Obviously, that answer is not yet known, so we just have to go off of resume and what we’ve seen so far. That makes me lean Oklahoma right now (and I think we’ll see that for sure tonight when the updated rankings come out and the Sooners move to five). Why? Utah’s best win this year is…7-5 Washington? Oklahoma has a road win at top ten Baylor, a win at 8-4 Oklahoma State, plus a better loss (the rankings will probably agree with us, but a road loss over 8-4 Kansas State instead of 8-4 USC with a third-string quarterback isn’t as damaging). Plus, the big question about Oklahoma has been the defense, but that’s actually been the side of the football that’s won games for the Sooners the last three weeks. Alex Grinch’s defense shut down Baylor in the second half, came up with big fourth quarter stops against TCU, and held the nation’s leading rusher Chuba Hubbard to 104 yards on 24 carries (4.33 ypc) in the finale against Oklahoma State. I know Utah has looked dominant in the second half of the season, but the fact is that the Utes have played one team this season currently ranked in the CFP Top 25. They lost that game. Lastly, I think LSU is more deserving of the number one seed, but I have a hard time seeing the committee bumping down Ohio State unless the Tigers go out and beat Georgia 50-7.
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
Georgia beats LSU, and Ohio State and Clemson both win.
This scenario leads to an utter lack of drama. All four get in. The only question would be if the committee tries to finagle a way to make sure there isn’t an all-SEC national championship. I know they’d like to try, but I don’t think you could rationalize that decision considering the dominance of Ohio State and Clemson. So, here’s what it’d look like:
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Georgia
- LSU
LSU and Ohio State both win, Clemson loses, and Utah and Oklahoma win.
As noted above, Clemson is probably fine. Also, Clemson ain’t losing to Virginia (sorry, various friends I have that go to school in Charlottesville and/or are on the football team). Still, if this beyond wacky situation goes down, here’s what I think the four would look like:
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Oklahoma
- Clemson
LSU and Ohio State both lose, Clemson wins, and Utah and Oklahoma both lose.
Ah yes, the absolute chaos sequence (again, Clemson isn’t losing to Virginia). Who gets in here? As we’ve covered, LSU and Ohio State are both safe, so this opens the door for Baylor, who would’ve avenged their lone loss of the year. The Bears would slide into the four spot.
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Baylor
Finally, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Utah, and Baylor all win.
Here’s the other debate–would Baylor have an argument over Utah? Yes, the Bears would have a better “best” win over Oklahoma at a neutral field, but is avenging their lone loss of the season enough? I don’t think so. Baylor got knocked from the conversation during the first ever College Football Playoff because of their non-conference strength of schedule. This year, the same reasoning may be used since Matt Rhule’s team beat Stephen F. Austin, UT-San Antonio, and at Rice before Big 12 play (yuck). I think the only way Baylor gets in is with a win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game and a Utah loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship. Unless the Bears can whip out a 42-10 drubbing of the Sooners, a win and a Utes loss may be their only shot.
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Clemson
- Utah
So that’s the breakdown. That’s how it’ll shake out. As I see it, LSU and Ohio State have spots locked down, with Clemson right there. The question is, who will join them in the playoff? We’re less than a week from finding out.
More Week Fourteen Thoughts
-I guess I should write about the Iron Bowl, huh? Saturday’s game was a microcosm of the Alabama season–undisciplined play with youth rearing its ugly head at the worst possible times. 13 penalties is insane, but think about when those flags happened. One negated a first half touchdown for Alabama, multiple others extended Auburn drives, false starts littered the fourth quarter for the Crimson Tide, and there was the final flag, of course, on the illegal substitution (the same penalty that wiped off an interception in the LSU game). For the first time in the Nick Saban Era, Alabama looked like the team panicking much more on the big stage this season in both of the huge, marquee games. Now, does this mean the dynasty is over? Of course not. Folks writing that the game has passed Nick Saban by are forgetting the run that occurred after the last two year championship drought. Still, this one admittedly feels different. There’s uncertainty on staff (Pete Golding may have to go), and a good chunk of the offense is about to head off to the NFL. Was Saturday’s Iron Bowl the end? I don’t believe so, but I’ll say this–I’m not picking Alabama to win the National Championship next year.
-As many of you know, I work on the weekends. Saturday, my job took me to Jordan-Hare Stadium, where I had to quickly get over Alabama’s loss and complete my duties. That, along with some unintentional screen time, led to some hilarious pictures.
-As folks in Starkville are calling it, the “Piss and Miss” in the Egg Bowl was legendary. Think about this: wide receiver Elijah Moore’s dog peeing celebration, which led to a missed extra point, cost Matt Luke his job. Had Ole Miss made the PAT and won in overtime, there’s a chance Joe Moorhead would’ve been let go by Mississippi State. Life comes at your fast.
-Ohio State once again dominated Michigan 56-27, proving that it’s not that Jim Harbaugh can’t beat Urban Meyer, it’s that he can’t beat Ohio State. Will he ever do it? I’ll have to see it to believe it. That being said, the Michigan offense did show some flashes in the first half, moving the football well against a terrific Buckeyes defense. The Wolverines might not have won, but they certainly showed some things that future opponents (ahem, LSU and Clemson) can exploit.
-Remember when the biggest knock against LSU was the defense? Well, the Tigers absolutely obliterated Texas A&M on Saturday 50-7. Aggie quarterback Kellen Mond was 10/30 for 92 yards and three interceptions, and LSU held Jimbo Fisher’s squad to 162 total yards and 2/13 on third down. If the LSU defense keeps playing like that, Ed Orgeron is winning a national championship.
-Wisconsin may have beaten Minnesota on Saturday to lock up a spot in the Big Ten title game, but it’s hard to look at the foundation built by P.J. Fleck this season and not think the Golden Gophers will be back soon. His postgame press conference provided a window into why he’s had so much success in his career so far and why he gets so much out of his players.
-One last player to highlight–Kentucky quarterback/receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. has been on another level since taking over under center because of various injuries. When Bowden came in, the Wildcats were 2-3. Kentucky finished the year 7-5, capping off the season with an impressive 45-13 win over rival Louisville. Bowden himself rushed for 284 yards and four touchdowns on 22 carries against the Cardinals, pushing him to 1, 235 yards for the year. Oh, and he’s still Kentucky’s leading receiver. Is it too late to get him an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony?
Gray’s Top Ten
- LSU
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Utah
- Oklahoma
- Baylor
- Florida
- Alabama
- Auburn
I’ve got LSU still in the top spot because of what I saw from the defense against Texas A&M. Nobody would confuse the Aggies with an offensive juggernaut, but they aren’t inept. LSU made them look like Northwestern. Ohio State moves back up to second place after handling Michigan in Ann Arbor, and Clemson falls slightly back to three despite crushing South Carolina 38-3. Georgia takes over and four, and Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor fill in behind the Bulldogs. Florida takes the eight spot after destroying Florida State. Dan Mullen’s already got ten wins in his first two seasons in Gainesville. Finally, yes I still have Alabama slightly ahead of Auburn. Auburn getting the win moved them into the top ten, but I’m still pretty convinced Alabama is a better team than the Tigers, even with Mac Jones at quarterback. If they played on a neutral field tomorrow, I’d take the Crimson Tide.
The Gray Robertson Coaching Search Firm, INC.
It’s that time of year again, folks! Head coaches are getting fired left and right, so the Gray Robertson Coaching Search Firm, INC. is back to help some of these schools make decisions, or just comment on decisions already made! Let’s dive right in:
Washington
In: Jimmy Lake
Out: Chris Petersen
This one came out of nowhere. Petersen, long-regarded as a top five coach in the sport, announced on Monday that he is going to step into an administrative role and “re-charge.” That says to me that we’ll see Petersen leading a program again in a few years. As for Lake, the Washington defensive coordinator has often been mentioned for jobs, and the fit seems perfect. We’ve seen the “head coach retires and gives the job to a top coordinator” game played well at Oklahoma and Ohio State, so I have no doubt this one will work too.
Rutgers
In: Greg Schiano
Out: Chris Ash
Rutgers finally got their guy in Schiano, who’s had the most high-profile success at any time in recent years for the Scarlet Knights. Can Schiano now win in the Big Ten? Not likely, but he can get this program back to bowls in the next three or four years.
Missouri
Out: Barry Odom
Frankly, I didn’t even consider Odom on the hot seat until whispers started to come out prior to the Arkansas game. I’m not totally convinced this had to happen, but the deed is done. So, who do the Tigers go after? Popular names include Mike Norvell, Bryan Harsin, Billy Napier, and Luke Fickell. I actually like the idea of Josh Heupel, the former Missouri offensive coordinator, coming back to Columbia. He had a good first season at UCF, and had the Tigers’ offense rolling back in 2017. Still though, this is a weird job. Nobody really came to mind immediately once Odom was let go, and I could see just about anybody getting this gig.
Ole Miss
Out: Matt Luke
This one seems pretty clear-cut, in my opinion. Ole Miss should hire Billy Napier, the head coach at Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in the Sun Belt Conference Championship in this, Napier’s second season. Before going to Lafayette, Napier was a wildly-successful offensive coordinator at Arizona State and a great receivers coach at Alabama under Nick Saban. He’s from Georgia and has coached all over the south, which would help with recruiting. This seems like the right choice.
Florida State
Out: Willie Taggart
Again, this one seems straightforward. Why hasn’t Florida State made an announcement yet? Could it be because they’re waiting on their main target to coach in a conference title game? I think so. If the Seminoles don’t bring in Memphis coach Mike Norvell, it’ll be a travesty. The guy is 37-15 at Memphis and has won the West division of the AAC three seasons in a row. He was a successful offensive coordinator well before his stint at Memphis, and he’s well-respected as a strategic coach and as a recruiter. This is a no-brainer.
Arkansas
Out: Chad Morris
Didn’t we just do this with the Razorbacks? Two years ago, I threw out the name Lane Kiffin, and I’m sticking with it today. The rumor is that the Arkansas brass has already been to Boca Raton to visit Kiffin, and the trail has been quiet since. Could it be that Kiffin, who coaches at Florida Atlantic, has said yes but is waiting for the Conference USA title game to make it official? Maybe. If Arkansas isn’t bringing in Kiffin, the obvious candidate is his C-USA opponent Bill Clark from UAB. Literally no other coach in the country has done as good a job as Clark has the last three seasons, and UAB is back in the conference championship for the second straight year. Somebody needs to hire this man.
Boston College
Out: Steve Addazio
This is a weird one, because what exactly goes into a Boston College coaching search? This isn’t a place of history, and there are pretty strict academic requirements to consider. The three names being tossed around that make sense are Luke Fickell, Don Brown, and Mike Elko. Fickell might be a bit of a pipe dream (he seems destined to take over a Big Ten job, perhaps Michigan State once Dantonio leaves), and Brown is a 64-year-old defensive coordinator at Michigan who’s been having tons of success (although not against Ohio State). Yes, Brown is from Massachusetts and coaching at Boston College for three season, but I’m not sure the Eagles will pull the trigger or that Brown will take the job, although I think it’d be a great hire. So, in terms of realism, I’m leaning Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mike Elko, who has done a good job in College Station and is used to coaching at places with strict schooling standards in Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Plus, he’s just 42-years-old, and he’s well-liked in the industry. Either Brown or Elko would be a good hire, but I’d lean Elko.
150 Corner
It’s SEC Championship week! My favorite event to attend is coming up once again, and we’ve got a solid contest coming down the pike in LSU vs. Georgia. Will it compete with some of the other classics we’ve seen over the years? Who knows, but let’s take a trip down memory lane and recall some of those great SEC title games.
Random Rankings
One more week until we give you a sneak peek at our movie rankings! Until then, we here are RR HQ have a bucket list of sporting events. Luckily, one of those will be checked off next Saturday when we attend Army-Navy, but there are still plenty to go. Here are our top five sports bucket list items. If it’s a college event and you don’t see it on here, assume that we’ve been.
- Masters Sunday
- U.S. Open Tennis
- U.S. Open Golf
- Super Bowl
- Ohio State-Michigan game at either stadium
SEC Power Rankings
The regular season is over, so we finally have a full sample size from everyone in the conference. Here’s how The Hangover sees things stacking up in the conference where it just means more:
- LSU (LW: 1)
- Georgia (3)
- Alabama (2)
- Florida (4)
- Auburn (5)
- Tennessee (7)
- Kentucky (8)
- Texas A&M (6)
- Mississippi State (10)
- Missouri (11)
- Ole Miss (9)
- South Carolina (12)
- Vanderbilt (13)
- Arkansas (14)
So Who’s Ready for Conference Championship Week?
It’s time to see who will win all of the conferences, and there are plenty of tasty contests. Here’s what’s on tap (Note: the rankings shown are from this week’s AP Poll, since the updated CFP Rankings will come out Tuesday):
Pac-12 Championship Game: #5 Utah vs. #13 Oregon, 7:00 CT on ABC (Friday)
Big 12 Championship Game: #8 Baylor vs. #6 Oklahoma, 11:00 am CT on ABC
Sun Belt Championship Game: Louisiana at #20 Appalachian State, 11:00 am CT on ESPN
MAC Championship Game: Miami (Ohio) vs. Central Michigan, 11:00 am CT on ESPN2
Conference USA Championship Game: UAB at Florida Atlantic, 12:30 CT on CBS Sports Network
AAC Championship Game: #21 Cincinnati at #16 Memphis, 2:30 CT on ABC
SEC Championship Game: #4 Georgia vs. #1 LSU, 3:00 CT on CBS
Mountain West Championship Game: Hawaii at #19 Boise State, 3:00 CT on ESPN
ACC Championship Game: #22 Virginia vs. #3 Clemson, 6:30 CT on ABC
Big Ten Championship Game: #2 Ohio State vs. #10 Wisconsin, 7:00 CT on FOX
That’s it for this edition of The Hangover! I’ll be at the SEC Championship for the 22nd time in my life next weekend, and then I’ll be calling women’s basketball on Sunday with an eye on the CFP Selection Show. Until next time, football fans!