Welcome to the sixth edition for the junior season of The Hangover, where I recap the previous weekend in college football. This week, The Hangover comes to you from College Station, Texas, and Birmingham, Alabama, where I watched Alabama blow past Texas A&M and then came home to handle some medical issues (which is why this week’s column is a day late). It was the first weekend with multiple games featuring CFP contenders, and it didn’t disappoint. Let’s dive in!
Now that we’re halfway through the regular season, it’s time to take stock of where we are. When the season begins, 130 teams have a dream of being apart of that CFP top four that comes out the Sunday after conference championships. To be apart of that or to even be in the conversation, there have been two main qualifications:
- Have no more than one loss. A two-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff.
- If you’re a Group of Five team, be undefeated with a good Power Five victory (preferably on the road).
With those two bits of criteria in mind, let’s dive into all of the teams who are still alive to make it into the playoff.
The Real Contenders
Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Alabama, LSU
As noted in The Hangover a few weeks ago, the number of legitimate CFP contenders seems to hover around six and, with Georgia’s loss this past weekend to South Carolina at home, Wisconsin now slips into this category thanks to a defense that has allowed all of 29 points in six games. Frankly, it’s tough to imagine the four for the playoff not coming from this group. Clemson appears to be a lock thanks to a schedule with very few foreseeable speed bumps (the toughest remaining game may be this weekend at Louisville, which is…not great). Oklahoma has a few potential pitfalls ahead with games at Baylor (more on the Bears below), at Oklahoma State, and a potential rematch against somebody in the Big 12 Championship Game. One of LSU and Alabama will probably finish the regular season undefeated, likely locking up a playoff spot, and there’s a great chance Ohio State and Wisconsin will meet twice this year. Bottom line, these are the real contenders, but a good bit of them will face off against each other very soon. That should tidy things up in this list.
The “Show-Me-More” Group
Michigan, Notre Dame, Auburn, Georgia, Florida
All of these teams have a loss and still have to prove that they can hang with the teams in the group above. Michigan in particular has plenty of questions to answer, and the Wolverines will have a chance to show that they’re really improving this weekend against Penn State. Win that, and games against Notre Dame and Ohio State still loom. Speaking of the Irish, I’ve talked a lot in various forums about how I think Brian Kelly has a legit team this year, but I’m just not sure that I buy the thought that the Irish can or will win out. Road games at Michigan and Duke seems like chances for loss number two. The three SEC teams in this category are here because they’ve suffered either a loss where they played awful (Auburn, Georgia) or a loss to a team in the group above (Florida). Since we get Auburn-Georgia and Georgia-Florida in the coming weeks, one can assume there will only be one of these squads left with any shot at the playoff.
The Fraudulent Group
Baylor, Minnesota, Arizona State, Utah
These teams are good stories but have no real chance to make the playoff because, frankly, the schedules are too tough. Let’s start with the 6-0 Baylor Bears, who’ve squeaked past Iowa State and Texas Tech the last two weeks. We talked last week about how impressive the turnaround has been in Waco thanks to Matt Rhule, but the upcoming schedule is just too difficult (at Oklahoma State, at TCU, and Oklahoma and Texas at home). Finishing that run with just one loss would be beyond impressive. Same with 6-0 Minnesota, who has finally figured out how to Row the Boat and win some close games. While the Gophers have started hammering lesser teams the last two weeks, the final month of the season is extremely difficult (Penn State, at Iowa, at Northwestern, Wisconsin). Sorry folks, it just isn’t happening. One of Arizona State and Utah will drop out of contention because of a head-to-head matchup this weekend, so there’s that. The winner of that game will still have one loss but, come on, it’s the Pac-12. Neither of these teams has a shot at the playoff.
The Dark Horses
SMU, Penn State, Boise State, Oregon, Missouri, Appalacian State
Let’s start with the Group of Five teams here. SMU sits at 6-0 with a good non-conference win over then-ranked TCU, and potential big road games loom against nearly-ranked squads Memphis and Tulane. Throw in a possible conference title game against #21 Cincinnati as well as the redemption narrative (SMU hasn’t been this successful since the death penalty), and the Mustangs could be in good shape if they continue to win. A 13-0 SMU squad could be closer to the playoff than we expect. Similarly, Boise State has an okay non-conference win at Florida State, but that’s where the comparisons stop. The Mountain West isn’t strong enough this year to help out the Broncos (the best remaining game is either at Utah State or a potential conference title game against San Diego State), so this team will need to continue to blow out everybody on the schedule and hope for some chaos. Lastly, there’s Appalachian State, which notched a good win at North Carolina that will look better if the Tar Heels win the ACC Coastal. Unfortunately, the Sun Belt doesn’t have any other good squads, so the Mountaineers will need to win out in conference and turn their attention to a November 9th game at South Carolina. Win that and finish 13-0, and Appalachian State could be a lot closer to the top ten that we expected. As for the other teams in this squad, Penn State is a dark horse to me because I haven’t seen enough to make me think they can win at Ohio State on November 23rd. Upset the Buckeyes in that game and finish the regular season undefeated or with a loss (say at Minnesota or this weekend against Michigan), and we can talk about the Nittany Lions as a legitimate contender. Oregon doesn’t have the luxury of any teams ranked higher than them going forward. The Ducks are really still in contention because of two things: a week one loss to a top fifteen team (nowhere to go but up) and the way they’ve won since, with smothering defense and efficient offensive play. This weekend against Washington and a future road game at Arizona State provide the best chances going forward for quality wins. Finally, there’s Missouri, who’s looked much better since that weird week one loss at Wyoming. A postseason ban is still on the table (a decision on the appeal should hopefully come soon) but, if that’s overturned, we could be looking at a significant SEC dark horse with a road game at Georgia and a home contest against Florida awaiting the Tigers in November.
There you have it, the 21 teams with CFP dreams that could still become a reality. Most of the these squads will play each other in the coming weeks and upsets will surely happen, but for now be confident knowing that your playoff four will come from these groups.
-Oh, Georgia. Why? How? We’ll dig into Kirby Smart’s coaching decisions later on, but we have to talk about Jake Fromm. The Georgia quarterback looked pedestrian at best, throwing three picks and never quite getting good zip on his passes. The running game struggled too, averaging barely above four yards per rush. The Bulldogs have some clear issues, and that’s not a good sign going into the season half of the season.
-For now, Florida looks like the best team in the SEC East. Can you impress people in a two-touchdown loss? Yep, and the Gators did just that Saturday in a 42-28 defeat at LSU. Kyle Trask continues to be play smart, confident football, and right now I’d pick Florida to beat Georgia in Jacksonville in a few weeks. On the flip side, Joe Burrow continues to look special. The LSU offense notched 11.4 yards per play against a great defense and finally started to run the ball with success this past weekend. Alabama-LSU on November 9th is really looking like a surefire 1 vs. 2, undefeated matchup. Are we ready for the Game of the Century again?
-Each week, Wisconsin continues to impress me, and it’s because of something we’ve talked about on this column before. Quarterback Jack Coan was razor-sharp against a good Michigan State defense on Saturday, going 18/21 with 180 yards and a touchdown. If Coan can continue to compliment this running game like a good pinot noir with a well-cooked filet mignon, I have a hard time denying Wisconsin as a legit threat in the Big Ten and CFP race.
-Which coaches are on the hottest seats at the midpoint of the season? I see two in major danger. The first is Derek Mason at Vanderbilt, which just lost this past weekend to UNLV (!) at home 34-10. I mean, how? Mason’s a defensive guru supposedly, but the Commodores are awful on both sides of the ball. His days in Nashville may be numbered. The other is Steve Addazio at Boston College. A 3-3 start to the year isn’t awful, but a home loss to Kansas in September is inexplicable, and an extremely difficult schedule going forward makes a bowl bid look impossible. If the Eagles miss out on the postseason, Addazio may be receiving his pink slip.
Gray’s Top Ten
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
- Wisconsin
- Penn State
- Florida
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
As noted above, your six legitimate CFP contenders take up the top six spots. Eventually, one of these six teams will get pushed by an unranked team, but for now these squads all look far and away ahead of everybody else in the country. Penn State comes in seventh after a good, solid road win against Iowa, and Florida just falls one spot after the LSU loss. Georgia stays ahead of Notre Dame thanks to a head-to-head win but, honestly, you could rank Georgia, Notre Dame, Auburn, and Oregon in any order and I’d be fine with it.
Coach of the Week
Here’s to you, Scott Satterfield. Last year, Louisville was the laughing stock of the ACC, going 2-10 under Bobby Petrino and scoring over 24 points just twice in conference play on the way to an 0-8 record. This season, the Cardinals have scored over 24 points in all three ACC games, including 41 and 62 in the last two wins over Boston College and Wake Forest, respectively. Satterfield has pumped some legitimate momentum into this program, and it’s been impressive to watch the turnaround. Does that mean Louisville is really to challenge Clemson this weekend? I’m not sure, but I can guarantee this team isn’t going to lose 77-16 like last season.
Idiot of the Week
As mentioned above, it was a bad week for the state of Georgia and, in particular, Kirby Smart. Look, Smart is obviously a great recruiter, but his in-game coaching has been called into question many times during his tenure in Athens. This week, it was the decision to try and run one more play at the end of regulation with eight seconds left at the South Carolina thirty-eight yard line and no timeouts. There probably wasn’t enough time to really move much closer than the 55-yard field goal this would’ve been for Rodrigo Blankenship (well in his range, might I add), but Smart decided to roll the dice and his offense was flagged for an illegal shift. That knocked Georgia out of field goal range, forcing a Hail Mary heave. Look, Georgia has nobody but themselves to blame for a loss to 3-3 South Carolina. The Bulldogs weren’t ready for the Gamecocks on Saturday, and Smart is to blame for his lack of preparation. Poor in-game decisions didn’t help matters either.
150 Corner
South Carolina’s upset of Georgia reminded us of the many times teams with CFP, BCS, or National Championship dreams fell to unranked conference foes (although not all of the losses were fatal). Here are some of the best ones over the years.
If we forgot any, please shoot all requests to @gray_robertson on Twitter.
Random Rankings
We here at RR HQ travel a good bit, including this weekend with a late Friday flight to College Station and an early-morning Sunday flight back to Tuscaloosa to call Alabama-LSU soccer. So, with that in mind, here are our random rankings of the best airlines on which to fly. These rankings take into account ease of travel, service, pricing, and much more. Consider this list the next time you book a plane ticket.
1. Southwest
2. Delta
3. American
4. United
5. JetBlue
SEC Power Rankings
As the gap between the top and the bottom continues to widen, more and more of these programs besides Vanderbilt will start feeling uneasy about the coaches they’ve got. Looking at you, Arkansas and Mississippi State. Here’s how The Hangover sees things stacking up in the conference where it just means more.
- Alabama (LW: 1)
- LSU (3)
- Florida (4)
- Georgia (2)
- Missouri (6)
- Auburn (5)
- South Carolina (9)
- Kentucky (8)
- Texas A&M (7)
- Ole Miss (10)
- Tennessee (12)
- Mississippi State (11)
- Arkansas (13)
- Vanderbilt (14)
So Who’s Ready for Next Week?
Here’s what’s on tap for a solid week eight:
#4 Ohio State at Northwestern, 7:30 CT on FS1 (Friday)
#3 Clemson at Louisville, 11 am CT on ABC
#9 Florida at South Carolina, 11 am CT on ESPN
#2 LSU at Mississippi State, 2:30 CT on CBS
#12 Oregon at #25 Washington, 2:30 CT on ABC
Temple at #19 SMU, 2:30 CT on ESPN2
Duke at Virginia, 2:30 CT on ACC Network
#18 Baylor at Oklahoma State, 3:00 CT on FOX
Kentucky at #10 Georgia, 5:00 CT on ESPN
#17 Arizona State at #13 Utah, 5:00 CT on Pac-12 Network
#16 Michigan at #7 Penn State, 6:30 CT on ABC
Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 6:30 CT on SEC Network
Florida State at Wake Forest, 6:30 CT on ACC Network
Tennessee at #1 Alabama, 8:00 CT on ESPN
#14 Boise State at BYU, 9:15 CT on ESPN2
That’s it for this edition of The Hangover! We’ll be in Starkville this weekend for LSU-Mississippi State, and then heading to Tuscaloosa for hopefully the second half of Alabama-Tennessee. Then, we’ll be back on track to post in our usual Monday slot. Until next week, football fans!