Everyone hates the Rockets. They hate them because they play a style that’s threatening to their ideals of basketball. People hate them because James Harden is one of few people to the play game who can draw fouls because of his outside shooting ability, mixed with ability to drive to the basket is so deadly and he knows that. People hate them because Russell Westbrook talks trash even when he’s losing–and if you hate that then you must hate Michael Jordan because he said himself that it’s a sign of a good man when you can talk trash when it’s even score or you’re behind. Just saying.
People were just ready for the Rockets to fail, so they can immediately say “I told you small-ball doesn’t work”. Even though small-ball has worked. You might remember them as the Golden State Warriors, thanks to Steve Kerr implementing a philosophy that he learned in his time in Phoenix during the ‘Seven seconds or less’ era coached by…Mike D’Antoni. Obviously, no two teams are alike and not one coach has the exact same image, but they do share those ideals.
This might be the most hated piece I will ever write, but it is a hill I am willing to die on.
Coaching Search
Mike D’Antoni is one of few coaches who would want to coach a team with this philosophy. While he is out the door, Daryl Morey is still the GM and he is as analytical as gets. So, it would be hard to imagine he hires someone that doesn’t share a similar philosophy. There has been some names thrown around, but no matter who they bring in don’t expect any sweeping changes on how the roster is constructed or what their overall goal is.
Tweaks To Be Made
There’s a corps of the Rockets that I think need to stay. However, there does need to be some changes and some retooling to help push it to the next level.
For instance, I think it’s time that the team moves on from Eric Gordon. While he can be an asset while healthy, that is a rarity these days. He has struggled to stay healthy and the product on the floor has reflected that. Next, is Austin Rivers, while he certainly is a good ball-handler, his outside shooting is lacking and is at best a neutral defender–although analytically he’s seen as a slight negative. Then, I would strongly consider moving on from either PJ Tucker or Jeff Green. My gut tells me keep Tucker, because even though they both shoot three’s below league average, Tucker is closer to league average (shooting at a lower volume than Green) and is a better defender than Green.
3 Point Shooting
So with three names out, three names must come in. Through free agency or trades–since Houston doesn’t have any first round picks. The priority should be to add guys who excel at “catch and shoot” when attempting their three pointers. These guys will compliment Westbrook and Harden with their ball-dominant traits. Because as it stands here are what their current teammates are doing on “catch and shoot” threes:
- Ben McLemore: 40.2% on 5.5 attempts per games
- Danuel House: 36.5% on 4.7 attempts per games
- PJ Tucker: 36.1% on 4.0 attempts per game
- Jeff Green: 35.7% on 3.9 attempts per game
- Robert Covington: 31.0% on 7.2 attempts per games
- Eric Gordon: 28.4% on 5.9 attempts per games
With these guys, they are shooting nearly two percent lower than league average. For this style, even league average is unacceptable. If the plan is to play heavy-isolation with your stars and have everyone else shoot threes then you need the guys who will excel at it. The guys that I believe to be objectively obtainable are Joe Harris (free agency), Davis Bertans (free agency), and Dennis Schroder (trade). There are other names to consider. If they really want to go for broke, Fred VanVleet is available this off-season and Bradley Beal is always in trade discussions. There will have to be some roster shuffling, but you go big or go home in that regard.
An Open Shot Is A Good Shot
Next, I would preach taking any open shot and not give up an open mid-range to find a three that might not be there. Every team has it’s preference on what shot they’re looking for, but that doesn’t mean you completely forbid a whole section of floor in the name of philosophy. Are mid-ranges as a whole a less efficient shot? Yes. However, if you are not getting as many open threes as you would like and the mid-range is open, then you should take the shot. Any open shot is a good shot, no matter where it is on the floor.
Can They Win With Westbrook and Harden?
Yes. Don’t be ignorant. The reason I call the people who think this can’t work ignorant–which is putting it nicely–is not only because of their obvious negative bias towards these two, but even without that there is a consensus among sports fans where if a player hasn’t won a championship by a certain point in their career that they will never win one. That these players have very obvious flaws that no other superstar has and can never overcome those flaws.
With that being said, I would try to stagger the minutes more so they aren’t on the floor as much. This will allow them to have an opportunity to the run the offense for longer stretches, which is when they are at their best. While they are a positive on the floor together they can slightly limit each other because of the fact they are both at their best when being the primary ball-handler.
With a new coach and likely a few new teammates it gives them a new opportunity to be utilized differently or have their strengths magnified.
Conclusion
The Rockets are knocking on the door at being a championship contender. They have the star power. Yes, they have their flaws, but every star has their flaws. They have strong corps pieces that can do it on both ends. Guys like Robert Covington, PJ Tucker, and Danuel House. Ben McLemore is really the only guy on the roster who can catch and shoot at a good rate, and at a higher volume as well.
Then there is the change that is going to happen within the organization. A new coach with new ideas keeps the door open as far as realizing players true potential. Potentially adding some strong shooting threats so that this philosophy can reach it’s full potential.
Ben Taylor of ‘Thinking Basketball’ said it best as far as a description of the 2019-2020 Houston Rockets. That this Rockets team is a Ferrari with a Prius engine. The promise of micro-ball is there, but the tools aren’t as strong as they can be. Meaning that if the team can add pieces that will improve their shooting, while keeping the pieces that made their defense at the very least an average one, they could post a net rating comparable to a championship contender.
So buckle up, because you haven’t seen the last of micro-ball.