The NFL is back today. What a time to be alive. There’s no better way to celebrate the return of the NFL than me shelling out some player props. Last season, I wasn’t the most reliable when it came to props but, I’ve made some tweaks to my algorithm (I’ve changed nothing) and feel prepared for the year. So without further ado, here are five player props for tonights Chiefs vs Lions game.
Record: 0-0
Isiah Pacheco Any Time TD +135
With Travis Kelce most likely out tonight, Kansas City is going to have to rely on other weapons to pick up his slack. One of those guys will be running back Isiah Pacheco. Last season, he wasn’t used too much and came on in the later part of the season, but still scored 5 touchdowns. With him assuming the RB1 role, he’ll be prone to more carries and more targets in the pass game. I’m not huge on who the Chiefs have out wide, so I think tonight could be a massive night for Pacheco where he’ll find pay dirt.
David Montgomery Over 53.5 Rushing Yards -115
It’s unclear what role Jahmyr Gibbs is going to serve in the Lions offense, but from what it sounds like, he’ll be more of an exotic player like Cordarrelle Patterson, so he won’t take away from Montgomery’s carries. In 2022, Montgomery had seven games over 53.5 rushing yards, but was also behind the Bears mediocre offensive line. Detroit has one of the best offensive lines in the league. With Chris Jones not playing tonight, the interior of the Chiefs defense is weak and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will look to target it with Montgomery, who is a physical runner.
Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.75 Sacks +170
Last season, Aidan Hutchinson dominated with 9.5 sacks and 52 tackles and he’s looking to improve from 2022. While the Chiefs have a strong interior offensive line, their tackle situation isn’t great. At right tackle is former Jaguar Jawaan Taylor, who is a mauler in the run game, but graded out at 58.7% on PFF and allowed 5 sacks last year. Left tackle doesn’t get much better. Former Buccaneer Donovan Smith graded out at 58.1% on PFF and allowed 6 sacks in 2022. Mahomes was sacked 26 times in 2022, but with new tackles, I see this number going up and it starts tonight with Hutchinson.
Alex Anzalone Over 6.5 Tackles -145
Now I don’t say something’s free money often, but this is FREE MONEY. In 2022, Alex Anzalone totaled 125 total tackles and had eleven games over 6.5 tackles. With Kelce most likely out and no real threats on the outside, the run game will be utilized by the Chiefs, which also mean that Anzalone will be active early and often. Anzalone is consistently in the mix and has proven to be one of the most efficient tacklers in the league. All the science and data tells me that this bet is CAN’T LOSE (I’m not a professional. Don’t listen to me).
Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards -120
Since entering the league, Patrick Mahomes has loved taking risks. One of those risks has been evacuating the pocket and picking up yards with his legs. In 2022, he had eleven games over 17.5 rushing yards and I don’t see him changing his play style too much entering the 2023 season. Andy Reid rarely draws up designed quarterback runs, so for this bet to hit, we need to see Mahomes bail out and look to pick up yards on his own. The Lions pass rush could lead to him spill out of the pocket and hit that rushing over. For once, I’m not betting on a Mahomes passing over.