Record: 12-11

Sam LaPorta Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -120

One of the big rookie surprises this season has been Sam LaPorta. Through three games, he’s totaled 18 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown. The past two games, LaPorta went for over 60 yards and on the season, he’s averaging 62 yards a game. Green Bay hasn’t been great when it comes to defending tight ends as they’ve allowed both Cole Kmet and Jonnu Smith to go for over 43.5 yards against them, and LaPorta is a better player than both Smith and Kmet.

Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions +120

“Hold up wait a minute, ya’ll thought I was finished?” I’m double dipping on LaPorta tonight. We’re taking his yards over and his receptions over. He’s averaging 6 catches a game and in every game this season, he’s been over 4.5 catches with 5 vs Kansas City, 5 vs Seattle, and 8 vs Atlanta. Again, Green Bay isn’t exceptional at covering tight ends this year so LaPorta will see favorable matchups and get open. He’s being targeted an average of 7.3 times per game and has become Goff’s favorite target.

Kenny Clark Over 0.25 Sacks +125

Over the past few seasons, one of the most underappreciated defensive players has been Kenny Clark. He’s extremely strong and explosive from the defensive tackle position and with Halapoulivaati Vatai out, the Lions interior offensive line is weak. His backup Graham Glasgow has a PFF grade of 66.2% and the Lions other guard, Jonah Jackson, has a PFF grade of 68.6%. I really like Clark’s chances to get after Goff tonight.

Aidan Hutchinson Over 3.5 Tackles +120

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the last time I took a Hutchinson prop it failed, but I’m not backing down. Personally, I think I put too much pressure on him to get a sack against Kansas City. So tonight, I’m taking the heat off him a little and taking his tackles over. Hutchinson has two games this year over 3.5 tackles and Green Bay runs the ball 45.3% of the time. He’ll have ample opportunities to make plays, especially when he lines up against right tackle Zach Tom.

AJ Dillon Any Time TD +115

You want to talk about someone who is due for a touchdown? Let’s talk about AJ Dillon. In 2022, Dillon, a New London, CT native, scored 7 touchdowns and right now in 2023, he has none. He’s due. That along with the Lions allowing 3 touchdowns to running backs through three games this season is making me feel like Dillon will find pay dirt. It’ll probably come on a run play tonight as Dillon isn’t a threat in the pass game like his counterpart Aaron Jones. It’s going to happen tonight. Believe, all we have to do is believe.