Season Review: 2022 Recap
Welcome back, fellow Union members! If you read and followed my college football season win totals preview from 2022, then you went a perfect 4-0. Kansas and LSU were our two biggest surprises from last season, exceeding their projected win totals by a combined 7 wins. Oklahoma State regressed as expected, and South Alabama was a pleasant surprise in the Sun Belt, recording double-digit wins, finishing 10-3, and making it to the New Orleans Bowl. It feels like we have an opportunity to replicate the same success from last season, and I have identified 5 win totals that I believe will lead us there. Let’s dig in.
1. Iowa Over 7.5
First up, lets go to Kirk Ferentz country out in Iowa City, Iowa. Cade McNamara transfers in from Michigan to lead the Hawkeyes under center, ending the atrocious Spencer Petras era. The running back core is led by Sophomore Caleb Johnson who was their leading rusher last season. They lose All-American TE Sam LaPorta to the NFL Draft, but retain Luke Lachey and should expect to have back their top WR weapon Nico Ragaini. Erick All comes in from Michigan for added depth at the TE position. The offensive line returns 114 career starts with all 5 lineman coming back to man the trenches.
On the defensive side where Iowa historically thrives, 2023 should be no exception. The D-Line loses Luka Van Ness, but return 6 of their top 8 in defensive production. A large blow occurs in the linebacking unit with the Hawkeyes losing 2nd Team All-American and Butkus Award Winner Jack Campbell. Luckily, 2nd Team All-ACC LB Nick Jackson transfers in from Virginia to man the middle and boost an already strong LB core. The secondary loses CB Riley Moss and S Kaevon Merriweather, but bring back Jermari Harris and star CB Cooper Dejean. The secondary and D-Line appear to project Top 5 projections and bringing in a 3x starter at MLB make the Hawkeyes a tough out in the B10.
Schedule and Prediction
Hosting Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois at home appears to be very favorable, along with playing Northwestern on a neutral field. In my opinion, the games against Penn State and Minnesota are “coin flips,” while Wisconsin could prove to be a tough matchup. With a better QB who has mobility and a strong defense overall, I believe Iowa has the potential to exceed expectations.
PREDICTION: 9-3
2. Clemson Over 9.5
With the DJ Era officially in the rear view mirror, say hello to QB Cade Klubnik. The highly touted Sophomore will be guided by the emergence of Garrett Riley (Lincoln’s brother) as OC coming from TCU. With the return of Will Shipley and Phil Mafah at RB, these 2 form one of the top rushing duos in the ACC. The receiving core will be young and unproven this season led by Sophomore Antonio Williams and Junior Beau Collins. Tight end Jake Briningstoll returns to support the receiving core in the middle of the field. The offensive line is the focal point of this offense as they return 4 of 5 starters from 2022 with a combined 99 career starts. The experience of the line should prove to be vital to the growth of Klubnik and his up and coming offensive weapons.
Where the Tigers will truly shine this season is on the defensive end of the ball. The D-Line loses Bryan Bresee, KJ Henry and Myles Murphy, but return Seniors Xavier Thomas and 2nd Team AA Tyler Davis. The LB core is led by Super Sophomore Jeremiah Trotter and return Barrett Carter. This core is more experienced than last season and can be a Top 10 unit in the nation. All 4 starters return in the secondary and all top 7 tacklers are back on the roster. This group will be greatly feared by offenses this season and you can expect a lot of game breaking plays.
Schedule and Prediction
I find this a very favorable schedule for the Tigers this season getting Florida St., UNC and ND at home. South Carolina will be a major revenge game after getting upset last year and could be vital come CFP time. With better QB play and a Top 10 Defense, I believe Clemson can get double digit wins and even run the table this season. I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Clemson to win the title at +2000.
PREDICTION: 10-2 (losses to NCST & ND)
3. Virginia Under 3.5
Tony Elliot is in for another tough year at the helm of The Cavaliers this season. Out is Virginia legend Brennan Armstrong who last brought them to relevance. In comes Monmouth transfer Tony Muskett (great name). From recent camp reports, he was a 2x 1st Team All Big South QB and is grasping the offense well in practice. The leading rusher of 2022 is gone for the Cavaliers who goes by the name: Brennan Armstrong. Returning is Mike Hollins and transferring in from Clemson is Kobe Pace, who played for Elliot in 2021 when he was OC. The WR core is a true mystery with all 4 starters gone from last years offense and they bring in Northwestern starter Malik Washington. The only thing that could be worse than the WR core is the O-Line with a combined 17 career starts. This position group is truly a mystery, along with every other group on offense.
The defensive line is a Vet laden group who return their ENTIRE 2 deep depth chart. The line is led by Chico Bennett and is comprised of 3 Juniors and 4 Seniors. 2022 leading tackler Nick Johnson transferred to Iowa, but the Cavs due retain their next top 2 tacklers. The secondary took a huge blow losing both of their starting corners, so regression is expected.
Schedule and Prediction
The schedule is a gauntlet starting in week 1 playing Tennessee, followed by a losable home game against James Madison. Road games at Maryland, UNC and Miami don’t prove to be any easier. With a completely new and inexperienced look on offense, I do not expect a 2nd year leap for Elliot. Expect some more tough times in 2023 for The Cavaliers.
PREDICTION: 2-10 (wins over William & Mary and Georgia Tech)
4. Akron Over 3.5
Yes you read that right; we’re placing our hard earned money on the Zips this season! 2nd year HC Joe Moorhead has hit the transfer portal hard and I think will pay dividends this season. Returning at QB is Senior Dual Threat DJ Irons for his 3rd season under center. The Zips lose their Top 3 in rushing production but bring in FSU transfer Lorenzo Lingard and Drake Anderson. Alex Adams returns at WR along with Daniel George to form an experienced offensive combo. Perhaps the biggest upgrade this season is their O-line who returns 6 rotational starters with playing experience. The offensive line has been a liability in Akron for years, so this will be a huge boost to keep Irons on his feet and run the offense effectively.
The defensive line loses 5 players with starting experience, but return 4 starters in the LB unit, including 1st Team ALL MAC Bubba Arslanian who is a 3 year starter for the Zips. Three P5 transfers come into the secondary who also retain there Top 3 in production from 2022. I think this is a very underrated defense who will be able to hold their own in the MAC.
Schedule and Prediction
With home games vs Morgan State and Kent State, I see 2 wins right of the bat. The MAC is one of the most volatile conferences in FBS, so I expect upsets this season. Akron lost 5 games in 2022 by 7 points or less, which tells me inexperience was a factor. With 15 starters back and another year under the tutelage of Moorhead, expect Akron to win more coin flip games.
PREDICTION: 5-7 (with some luck, 6-6 and a possible bowl berth!)
Final Pick and Best Bet: Arizona Over 4.5
You’ve heard of the 3rd year leap right? Well HC Jedd Fisch is in his 3rd year and I think we have found some real value with this number. At the most important position on the field, he returns Junior Jayden De Laura who was 2nd in the PAC 12 with 3,685 pass yards in 2022. Michael Wiley and Jonah Coleman return to form one of the most potent duos in the PAC-12. The position I’m most excited about for the Wildcats this season is WR. They actually lose leading receiver Dorian Singer to USC, but retain former UTEP standout Jacob Cowing and star Sophomore Tetairoa McMillan who caught 8 TD’s as a Freshman. Colorado transfer Montana Lemonious-Craig enters the mix, and Junior TE Tanner McLachlan locks down the seams after recording the 2nd most receptions ever by a Wildcat (Gronkowski, 47, 2008). This could be the most explosive WR core in the PAC-12 this season. The offensive line returns 3 starters with a combined 63 career starts and should improve with more experience in 2023.
The defensive line loses all 4 starters which is not ideal, but bring in transfers from Georgia, UCLA and Michigan. Only Sio Nofoagatoto saw starting time in 2022 so the line will remain a mystery. Oregon transfer Justin Flowe and Dan Heimuli from Washington man the LB positions to take over for Jerry Roberts. The secondary takes a huge hit by losing their #1,3 and 4 tacklers, but finishing 126th in production, it may not be a negative. A fresh look in the secondary may be just what the doctor ordered in Tucson.
Schedule and Prediction
The schedule on paper looks tough but if you take a deeper dive, I think we have some great spots. Opening up at home vs NAU can really get the offense on the right foot before going to Starkville. The Bulldogs have a new look offense and HC after the passing of football legend Mike Leach (RIP Pirate). Stanford is the worst power ranked team in the PAC-12 and Colorado and Arizona State are both adjusting to new HC’s and schemes. In a year of change in the PAC-12, having stability in Arizona can prove to be successful.
My official “Kansas” pick of 2023 is in Tucson, Arizona. Give me The W-I-L-D-CATS!
PREDICTION: 7-5 (upsets of UCLA and Utah)