Last year the selection committee tried to pit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish against the West Virginia Mountaineers as the 3-6 second round matchup in the West Region. As we all (sadly) remember, WVU blew it. Well, they didn’t really blow it, they just didn’t do anything to make it happen. Thomas Walkup and the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, behind Walkup’s 33 points, dominated the Mountaineers 70-56, and the committee didn’t get their matchup. So naturally, when you (the selection committee) fails once, restart and try again. This year, in the same West Region, the committee is trying for a 4-5 West Virginia vs Notre Dame matchup. This year though, I’m proud to say WVU won’t blow it, I hope, but… Notre Dame will blow it this time.
That’s right, you’re hearing it here, on Thursday at 12:15, the first game of the round of 64, will be the coveted 5-12 upset. The 12 seed Princeton Tigers have what it takes to upset the Irish this year. I know what you’re thinking, usually mid-majors need to force turnovers to win games in the tourney and Notre Dame has the least amount of turnovers per game. I don’t think it will matter. I think Princeton is good enough to beat them anyway. Princeton is currently on a 19 game win streak, the second longest in the country, only trailing Vermont. After starting off a measly 4-6, Princeton hasn’t lost since December 20th in a 96-90 lost to a good Monmouth squad, look for that streak to extend to 20, and maybe even 21.
Since Princeton is known really for their offense, let me start with their defense. Princeton isn’t exactly a massive team, and size is usually where power 5 teams take advantage of smaller mid majors, but not this Notre Dame squad. Their center is only 6’5, and while he plays well as a big, they shouldn’t create any terrible mismatches for Princeton, like say Purdue would with Caleb Swanigan. Good defense leads into good rebounding and, as a stat special, Princeton has exactly 1 more rebound on the year then their opponents, 969-968. Even with all the credit their offense gets, they aren’t a bad defensive team either, holding teams to only 61.5 PPG. With that 61.5 they hold their opponent to only 41.6% shooting with a 33.2% mark from 3. They force 13.4 turnovers per game, which against Notre Dame shouldn’t mean too much, but if they force Notre Dame into some uncharacteristic turnovers it could turn into a, dare I say, blowout.
Their offense is the wheels that keeps this Princeton train rolling. They are a stellar offensive team, but they have the potential for a letdown. 45.7% of Princeton’s total field goal attempts on the year have been 3’s. They truly do “live by the 3, die by the 3.” So far however, Princeton is living, and they’re doing it luxuriously. They make 38.3% of their 3’s, even at that ridiculous pace of attempts per game. They average an even 10.0 3’s per game. They do shoot 45.2% overall, which comes out to 51.1% from inside the 3 point line, but don’t watch the game expecting Princeton to drive into the paint. They’re perfectly content moving the ball around the perimeter and knocking down a 3 in Steve Vasturia’s face. Notre Dame’s 3 point stats are close to those of Princeton, and if Princeton can keep up with Notre Dame in the 3 point department, it could end up being a fun game. Princeton has 4 guys averaging in double digits, with another at 9.5, with 3 of those 5 shooting better than 41% from 3. If Notre Dame wants to preserve this early round victory, they will have to guard all positions, and most importantly, be able to guard the perimeter.
I do truly think Princeton will pull this upset, but I don’t want to go as far as to guarantee it, as nothing can be guaranteed in the tournament. But, if you want to get a leg up on the other guys in your poll challenge, maybe win a couple bucks, strongly consider picking Princeton to beat the Irish. (If you’re feeling extra confident, maybe even pick them over WVU).