After barely getting by the Razorbacks of Arkansas in the Round of 32, the Tar Heels head to Memphis for the Sweet Sixteen, just two games away from another Final Four berth. First though, they will have to get past the Butler Bulldogs. I feel as if a lot of national media and UNC fans are overlooking this game and rather waiting for the big match up this weekend with either UCLA or Kentucky, but they have to make it their first.
UNC is currently seven point favorites, but the spread means little in the way of determining a tourney game. All season people have pointed at Carolina’s defense as their fatal flaw, but in this game they match up well. UNC is #37 in the country in defensive efficiency, while Butler is a mere 117th. Butler is also 226th in opponent defensive rebound %, meaning that if they miss a shot, the big men at UNC will clean up the boards.
We have more of a fair balance on the offensive end. Carolina has the #10 offense in the country while Butler is right behind them at #20. One thing I’ve found is that teams with top 30 offenses tend to do well in the tournament, so it is no surprise these two teams are here. In terms of 3 point shooting, Butler is towards the middle of the pack in % of points from the three point line, while Carolina is among the lowest in the nation, to no one’s surprise. Don’t expect to see a ton of threes this game. If the game comes down to the end. Butler is a lot better free throw shooting team than Carolina, shooting 73.8% to the Heels’ 70.9%.
I watched this Butler team lose to Xavier at the Big East Tournament just two weeks ago. Little did I know that both teams would have a chance at the Elite Eight. Butler has defeated a number of the top teams in the country this season, including Arizona, Cincinnati, and Villanova (twice). This is a great team, lead by Kelan Martin. Part of me is pretty scared of Butler.
In the end, I think Carolina will pull out the dub on the heels of their terrific rebounding and size. Don’t be surprised though if they try to become too reliant on the three pointer and Butler takes advantage.