While we’re around six months away from the Oscars, we’ve seen a lot of great pieces of cinema this year. The Academy announces the nominations for the categories in January and I wanted to give an early breakdown of what I think will be nominated. There are still a lot of films waiting to be released and the SAG-AFTRA strike could alter my predictions with films possibly being pushed, but I’m ready to present my rough draft of the nominations, plus their odds to win Best Picture according to DraftKings.
The Favorites (Under +1000)
In my eyes, the four films with odds better than +1000 are all locks to receive a nomination. There’s only four and I’ve seen two thus far and I fully fathom why they are favorites. The other two have a freight train of momentum behind them and could roll into awards season ready to make some noise.
Oppenheimer (Nolan) +100
I saw Oppenheimer twice within the first week of its release and it’s a masterpiece. It’s one of Nolan’s best and deserves to be the odds on favorite, especially because Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things haven’t been released on a wide scale. Not only will Oppenheimer get a nomination, I think there’s a very, very strong chance it wins due to the thriller and horror aspects piped into a poignant biopic. If you want to know more about how I feel regarding Oppenheimer, here’s my full review.
Killers of the Flower Moon (Scorsese) +300
Here’s where things get a little tricky. Killers of the Flower Moon has not released widely yet so I can’t fully gauge how the final product will be, but when you combine Martin Scorsese’s direction with Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, John Lithgow, and Brendan Frasers acting, you’re cooking with fire. The trailers I’ve seen make this look like an epic period piece with loads of needed violence. Peter Bradshaw of The Guardian wrote that Killers of the Flower Moon is “an utterly absorbing film, a story that Scorsese sees as a secret history of American power, a hidden violence epidemic polluting the water table of humanity.” You can pencil this in as a lock for a nomination.
Poor Things (Lanthimos) +600
Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things is like Killers of the Flower Moon from the aspect that it hasn’t released widely yet. But its release at Telluride Film Festival and Venice Film Festival have given it a buzz that not many other films have garnered over the years. It’s gotten to the point that some believe it could have a La La Land-esque showing at the Oscars receiving over ten nominations. Guy Lodge of Variety wrote that “It’s (Poor Things) a vast absurdist odyssey, positively compact at a galloping 141 minutes, that takes in a groaning buffet of settings and ripe secondary characters.” While I’m really amped for Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things has me more intrigued.
Past Lives (Song) +800
Unlike Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon, I have seen Past Lives… and I loved it. I adored every second of this Celine Song romantic drama that rips your heart out and stomps all over it. I’ve struggled to connect in the past with some foreign films, but Past Lives hit me hard. The emotional twists and turns that Song brought to this through Greta Lee and Teo Yoo was dynamite and will pull on the Academies heart strings, rightfully earning a nomination at the Oscars.
Very Good, But Will They Get A Nomination? (+1100 – +2000)
Anatomy of a Fall (Triet) +1100
The buzz surrounding Justine Triets Anatomy of a Fall reminds me a lot of Aftersun last year. It was a film flying under the radar, but exploded on the scene at Cannes, essentially putting the film community on notice. Anatomy of a Fall took home the Palme d’Or at Cannes beating out The Zone of Interest, Asteroid City, and May December. It feels safe to say Anatomy of a Fall is a lock to get nominated and possibly win Best International Film. I’m ecstatic to see it and feel what everyone else is feeling about it.
Maestro (Cooper) +1400
I personally think Maestro looks like an Oscar baiting piece of garbage in the same vein as J. Edgar or Dear Evan Hansen. The trailer itself feels like a cliff notes for how to win Best Picture where there’s black and white cinematography, a clear love story, and slow pacing. Then, we saw the photos of Steven Spielberg on set with Bradley Cooper which, again, feels like Oscar bait. While I am a sucker for music biopics, I don’t have high hopes for Maestro. But my say doesn’t matter and I think the Academy will nominate it.
Barbie (Gerwig) +1600
The cultural phenomenon that is Barbie is quite amazing. It came into theaters like a hurricane, made $1.4 billion dollars, and is now campaigning to be a Best Picture nominated film. What’s interesting is we’ve never seen a niche film like Barbie get nominated. Obviously we’ve seen dystopian style films get nominated for Best Picture like A Clockwork Orange and Everything Everywhere All At Once, but never one where it’s niche about a brand. I think Barbie will change the way the Academy nominates films going forward to add a fun element to the Oscars.
The Killer (Fincher) +1600
I’m amped for The Killer. Once I heard this was being released this year, I haven’t craved another film to feast my eyes on more than The Killer. You’re bringing one of my favorite actors, Michael Fassbender, together with my favorite director, David Fincher — of course I think this film will be great. But will it get nominated? I’m not entirely sure. Fincher has three films that’ve been nominated for Best Picture, but no winners. I’m not too sure how a neo-noir thriller about an assassin will resinate with the Academy, so I’m not confident on it getting a nomination, but I’ll hold out hope.
Ferrari (Mann) +2000)
Since its debut at Venice, my favorite review of Ferrari was someone calling it House of Ferrari. I’m skeptical of Ferrari. It looks like an interesting biopic with electric racing sequences, but will the performances be serviceable? Can Adam Driver, Penelope Cruz, and Shailene Woodley convince me that they’re Italian? I just don’t know. Much like Maestro, I’m getting Oscar bait vibes from Ferrari. And that’s pretty unfortunate because I love Michael Mann and the possibility of Heat 2 being made rests on the success of Ferrari. I hope this film’s great, I’m just very skeptical.
The Holdovers (Payne) +2000
Paul Giamatti and Alexander Payne are BACK. The last time these two worked together was in 2004 when Sideways was nominated for Best Picture. Aside from those two reuniting, The Holdovers looks touching and funny. It has the looks of a Dead Poets Society meets Goodwill Hunting where we get the old prep school vibes along with unlikely relationships. One interesting note is that The Ringers Sean Fennessey remarked on the films writing. He noted how this isn’t a Payne screenplay and it shows. Fennessey said that it wasn’t bad, but you could feel that it lacks that traditional Payne factor.
Long Shots (+2200 – +15000)
Napoleon (Scott) +2200
Napoleon feels like a high risk, high reward film. It’s Ridley Scott directing the story of histories most notorious generals and the film has a runtime of 158 minutes. While Oppenheimer has a long runtime, Nolan delivers exquisite content from start to finish. There isn’t any filler. If Scott can avoid this and show us macabre and legendary life of Napoleon in a concise way with great action, it’ll 100% get a nomination. Seeing Scott’s past period pieces like Gladiator and The Last Dual tells me he can deliver on that.
May December (Haynes) +2500
The mystique surrounding May December is extremely interesting. It popped big time at Cannes in May, but then has lost steam recently. Maybe quieted down is the proper phrasing. Nevertheless, Todd Haynes as assembled an interesting concept with two stunning leads. Even if you aren’t thrilled about the film’s plot, you should be excited to see Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore sharing the big screen.
Priscilla (Coppola) +2800
Last year, we saw Baz Luhrman’s Elvis receive a Best Picture nomination. That was a flashy biopic that lacked cohesion. Now in 2023, we’re seeing the side of Elvis that wasn’t covered in Elvis. Sofia Coppola is directing a movie about Elvis’ wife, Priscilla Presley. The early reports from Venice sound promising as Amanda Dobbins of The Ringer called the film “a delight” and stressed the star power Jacob Elordi possessed on her podcast, The Big Picture.
Sound of Freedom (Monteverde) +3500
This having better odds than The Bikeriders and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is INSANE. Not only was Sound of Freedom not that great of a movie, but the Academy is filled with liberals who wouldn’t nominate this even if it was as good as Citizen Kane. I mentioned when I wrote about it that a movie can be bad, yet convey an important message. That’s what Sound of Freedom does.
Air (Affleck) +3500
I enjoyed Air when I saw it in theaters, but what hurts this Affleck directed flick is that this is a great biopic year. I’m predicting that four biopics get nominated, and even that’s ambitious. While fun, Air misses on a lot of fronts from not showing Jordan to the film making everyone but Sonny Vaccaro look dumb.
The Bikeriders (Nichols) +4000
Getting a wide release in December, Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders is a film that’s garnered mixed reviews. I’ve seen stylistic comparisons to Goodfellas, but also some that say The Bikeriders is middle of the road for Nichols. I’m personally excited to see it and I could see it being nominated as a gritty film in the tenth slot. With a cast consisting of Tom Hardy, Austin Butler, Jodie Comer, Boyd Holbrook, and Michael Shannon, this film feels like it’ll be fun.
Beau Is Afraid (Aster) +5000
The film I’ve easily soured on the most this year after viewing was Ari Asters’ Beau Is Afraid. While there is a lot of genius in it and Joaquin Phoenix gives a great performance, this felt like how I feel about Wes Anderson sometimes — Aster got too far up his own ass. He slowed the pace down, which is a staple in his past films, but he brought the film to a screeching halt with it. I like Aster as a director, but I see no scenario where Beau Is Afraid gets nominated.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Santos, Thompson, Powers) +5000
I’m pretty shocked that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is at the same odds as Beau Is Afraid. The reason I say this is because I think the Academy wants to boost viewership, and to do that, you need to offer some fanfare. Last year’s crowd favorite nomination was Top Gun: Maverick, and I’m not saying that’s the sole reason viewership was up 2.5 million from the year prior, but it sure helped. I found Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to be great, but what hurts its chances is the fact that only three animated films have ever been nominated for Best Picture with the most recent being Toy Story 3 in 2010.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Mangold) +15000
In dead last on DraftKings is Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. This upsets me because Indiana Jones is a piece of my childhood, but I understand it. It’s a solid installment of the franchise, but not one that should even come close to a nomination. It was fun, had great CGI, and injected the audience with nostalgia, but isn’t Oscar worthy.
My Predictions
Oppenheimer (Nolan) +100
Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer is the betting favorite for a reason. It’s an intense story being told in such a unique way that we’ve never really seen prior. After two viewings of it, I’m all in for the Oppenheimer Best Picture campaign.
Killers of the Flower Moon (Scorsese) +300
What more needs to be said? It’s Martin Scorsese directing Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in a period piece thriller drama. Most of the time, this 206 minute runtime would scare me, but not under these pretenses. It’s a lock to be nominated and will only add to Scorseses legacy.
Poor Things (Lanthimos) +600
The 96th Academy Awards is going to be a blood bath battle between Oppenheimer and Poor Things, but the one award that everyone as a whole cares about is Best Picture. Poor Things is picking up steam at the proper time following Venice and Telluride and will only continue to roll into everyones nomination list following it wide release in December.
Past Lives (Song) +800
I’ll pencil in Past Lives as lock number four out of five. International romantic dramas like Past Lives have historically done well around nomination time with Drive My Car getting nominated in 2021 for Best Picture. It’s emotional, gutting, and an unbelievable debut from Celine Song.
Anatomy of a Fall (Triet) +1100
Anatomy of a Fall is lock number five for me. Even though I haven’t seen it yet, the buzz is palpable around it and I can’t downplay it. It feels like a mix of a thriller and a dramatic courtroom drama coming together on an international landscape that the fans will fall in love with.
Maestro (Cooper) +1400
I hate to add Maestro to this list of my nomination predictions, but it feels inevitable. I won’t pray for a films downfall, but I don’t believe this’ll be a very good movie. I’m thinking it’ll have a solid premise, but will go over the top with emotion and lack true content relying on just filler.
Barbie (Gerwig) +1600
There’s no denying that Barbie is a tidal wave of momentum, and while it’s a sillier film, it’s one that I’m confident will get a Best Picture nomination. While it’ll be passed over for director, actor, and actress, it will fit properly in the Best Picture category. This is a revolutionary film and will get its flowers around nomination season.
Napoleon (Scott) +2200
I remarked that Napoleon felt hit or miss, but I’m all in feeling that it’ll be a hit. We’re getting one of this generations most talented actors, Joaquin Phoenix back working with Ridley Scott in a historical epic. The trailer fired me up, so I’m jacked to see the battle scenes on the big screen. If Napoleon wins, then this’d be his second film to win the award, with Gladiator being the first.
Priscilla (Coppola) +2800
If the hodgepodge, jumbled mess that was Elvis got nominated last year, then the eloquent Priscilla will be nominated. I’m putting my trust in Sofia Coppola and believe she’ll get her second Best Picture nomination.
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Santos, Thompson, Powers) +5000
The Academy is going to give the people the fanfare we deserve. If you think animated films don’t equate to being great pieces of cinema, you’re not a smart person. While I much prefer Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, the sequel was magnificent and deserves the tenth slot.
My Winner
Oh, you thought I was done? In the words of Meek Mill, “Hold up wait a minute, ya’ll thought I was finished?” I wouldn’t go through all of this predicting and analyzing and not give you who I think is going to win.
Drum roll please — duh, duh, duh, duh, duh, duh. The film that I believe will win Best Picture is Christopher Nolans Oppenheimer. It’s so pertinent and feels like a generational piece of cinema. It’ll be looked at as this generations Amadeus or JFK. And, it’ll be awesome to see Nolan win his first Best Picture award.