Although we are still 96 days away from the glorious Chiefs-Lions opening game (but who’s counting?), the buzz of the NFL is year-round. Looking this far ahead, we can snag great value on lines that are still months away. The fun part will be looking back on this, seeing if the lines have moved, and if playing the games this early was worth it. Here are five lookahead lines I like for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Falcons (-2.5) vs Panthers
Getting the Falcons at home at -2.5 is something we may not see come September. The Falcons may not be good, but they have in my opinion the second best chance to win the NFC South behind the Saints. The Panthers may figure it out as the season goes on, but Week 1 with Bryce Young making his NFL debut feels like a good spot to fade Carolina. The big moves made this offseason were signing Miles Sanders, a product of the Eagles offensive line, an aging Adam Thielen, and an inconsistent DJ Chark.
Atlanta is going with the fantasy football method. They took Bijan Robinson in the first round despite having some holes on defense to add to an offense already featuring Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrelle Patterson. The Falcons also added Calais Campbell to help bolster their D-line. The only question mark is at QB with Desmond Ridder set to start his second season, but I think his play will be good enough to get the Falcons to a Week 1 win and cover.
Browns (+2.5) vs Bengals
This value is two-fold. One, the Browns have owned the Bengals recently. Cleveland has taken 8 of the last 10 against their Ohio rival. Furthermore, 2017 was the last time the Bengals beat the Browns in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson had a TERRIBLE handful of games following his suspension, but I think with a full offseason and jumping right into action in Week 1, he should be a lot better.
So far, the Browns haven’t made a ton of big moves, but I do like acquiring Elijah Moore from the Jets if he can put his head down and be a good soldier. The Bengals did finally get a great LT in Orlando Brown Jr. but replacing Hayden Hurst with Irv Smith is somewhat a wash. Cincy will be very good, don’t get me wrong, but it could take a minute for them to ramp things up like last year when they started 0-2.
The second part to all of this is a hypothetical. The Browns have now moved in as favorites to land WR DeAndre Hopkins. If Cleveland can land him, they might even move to slight favorites in this game. There is a chance this paragraph looks very stupid in a couple weeks, but we do know the Watson-Hopkins connection has worked in the past.
Jaguars (-3.5) at Colts
I am not an Anthony Richardson believer. And even if I was, it is certainly not going to be clicking Week 1. Jonathan Taylor struggled last year, and while I think he’ll be better, I don’t know if we will see the rookie version of him. I like adding Josh Downs, but I still think this receiving group leaves something to be desired. The Jags defense wasn’t great last year, however they were solid against the run. Jacksonville was a surprise last year, but now the surprise would be them missing the playoffs in a bad AFC South. Add Calvin Ridley to the mix and this team is dangerous. 3.5 is a small number for a bad team taking on a legit playoff threat. Take the Jags on the road.
Texans (+9.5) at Ravens
This pick is going one of two ways. The Texans will either win straight up or lose by 30. C.J. Stroud is my favorite QB in this draft class and we will find out very quickly if he is ready to be thrown into the fire. The weapons he has are pretty mid, but I do like adding Dalton Schultz and Devin Singletary is a solid backup RB. I’m not sure how much Robert Woods has left in the tank, but Nico Collins showed some flashes, John Metchie III could be making his NFL debut, and rookie WR Nathaniel Dell was essentially drafted on Stroud’s request. This defense needs work, but adding Will Anderson after taking Derek Stingly Jr. is a good start. This Texans team will be bad but feisty.
What are the Ravens? There seems to be a lot of talk about airing the ball out this year with new OC Todd Monkey and new WR Odell Beckham Jr., but is that the right idea? I love Lamar Jackson but throwing the ball deep has been his weakness. Baltimore is at their best when they run the ball well and set up plays for Mark Andrews. J.K. Dobbins has not stayed healthy, and neither has Jackson. I think the Ravens will be in the playoff mix, but don’t be surprised if they struggle early. I like the Texans to cover a big number.
Steelers (+3) vs 49ers
If you see a plus sign next to the Steelers, hammer them. Mike Tomlin loves being an underdog, especially early in the season. Last season, Pittsburgh knocked off the Bengals to start the season to stun the world. They then rattled off 4 straight losses, but the point is Tomlin will have all offseason to prepare for this game. I don’t love Kenny Pickett, but at least I know he will be the starting QB Week 1 (knock on wood).
On the other side, I have no earthly idea who will be taking snaps for the 49ers. It seems like Brock Purdy will need some extra time, while Trey Lance is seemingly never healthy and Sam Darnold is Sam Darnold. While I do believe the whole “anyone can play QB for the 49ers” line, I see it taking a couple weeks for San Fran to get acclimated. This is a team that is known for slow starts and a sprint to their eventual NFC Championship Game loss. Take the Steelers in this Week 1 battle.
