As crazy as it sounds, we’re over halfway through the NFL regular season. This year has been like no other in football history, and I think I’m just now starting to rationalize how wild it has been. With MVP conversations now very much in play, I figured week 10 would be a great time to introduce a new series!
From here on out, I will offer my picks on each game for the week, provide a short list of MVP candidates, and give a list of a few names to watch from a fantasy perspective. There’s a lot to unpack for this upcoming week, so let’s dive in.
Thursday Night: Tennessee (-2) v. Indianapolis
It’s rare that we land a good Thursday night game these days. The Colts and the Titans will play a meaningful game with serious AFC South stakes on the line. The focus for this game should be on the rushing attacks from both sides. Tennessee will likely lean more on superstar Derrick Henry than they already do, as Indy’s secondary has been lockdown all year. Meanwhile, the Colts have established a trio of sorts in their backfield between Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines. If those three can gash the Titans’ defense and keep Henry off the field, the Colts will have a great shot to steal a victory. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening this week.
The Pick: Titans 24-17
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Texans v. Browns (-3.5)
A more interesting matchup than you might expect given the difference in records. I think a lot of people are still questioning if the Browns are legit at 5-3, and Deshaun Watson makes any team dangerous, no matter the record. Cleveland will welcome Nick Chubb back to the lineup against a poor Texans defense. Expect this to be a shootout, but one that Cleveland ultimately walks away victorious in.
The Pick: Browns 38-31
Football Team v. Lions (-4)
I’m dubbing this game the matchup of the two most underappreciated quarterbacks of my generation. Matt Stafford and Alex Smith both have not been given the credit they deserve over the course of their careers. Unfortunately, this season has not reflected what either QB is capable of when at their peak. The fact that Smith is playing at all is a literal miracle, and Stafford is coming off of probably his worst game of the season. Check on your fantasy players during this one, but no need to glue yourself to the TV here.
The Pick: Lions 20-13
Jaguars v. Packers (-13.5)
The biggest spread of the week is in Green Bay. I loved what I saw from Jake Luton in his NFL debut last week, but the Texans aren’t quite the Packers. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have been clicking at an all-time level over the past few weeks, and I don’t expect that to stop against the Jags. I think the Packers roll at home.
The Pick: Packers 42-20
Eagles (-3) v. Giants
I hate that I have to say this, but there are significant playoff implications on the line in this one. A win for the Eagles could start to wrap the division up for them, whereas if the Giants steal one then they are very much in the mix. New York actually really impressed me against Tampa, then backed that up with a win over Washington. As far as it goes in the NFC East, I would consider that to be a team that’s on a roll. Give me the upset here, likely on a costly Carson Wentz turnover.
The Pick: Giants 23-17
Buccaneers (-4.5) v. Panthers
Christian McCaffrey is likely out again just one week after making his return. The Panthers played the Chiefs extremely tough, just as they’ve done to every team they’ve faced this year. When they learn to close games, they will be incredibly hard to beat. Tampa, meanwhile, needs to completely erase everything from last week from their memory. All-time greats come back from down weeks, and I expect Tom Brady to right the ship. Could an Antonio Brown touchdown be the difference?
The Pick: Buccaneers 34-28
Broncos v. Raiders (-5)
Everything about this screams trap game to me. If you’re a Chiefs fan like I am, then you know that Raiders fans have been celebrating their Week 5 win over us like it was the Super Bowl. Next week gives them a shot to pull off the season sweep on Sunday Night Football. I can absolutely see Vegas looking ahead and forgetting about the scrappy Broncos. If Drew Lock can play solid football before the 4th quarter against a bad Raiders defense, Denver has a very real chance to pull off this upset.
The Pick: Broncos 28-20
Chargers v. Dolphins (-2.5)
Some might look at this line and be surprised it isn’t bigger. Miami is rolling right now while the Chargers find a way to “Charger it up” week after week. This is a great matchup between two rookie quarterbacks who could not be in more different situations. Tua Tagovailoa looked every bit the part last week in a huge win over the Cardinals. Justin Herbert has been arguably the biggest revelation in football this year. The difference? Coaching. Brian Flores is simply better at his job than Anthony Lynn. It’ll take a herculean effort from Herbert to get it done this week.
The Pick: Dolphins 31-27
Bills v. Cardinals (-1)
One of the best games on the docket this week. Buffalo has got to be feeling great after completely dismantling Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Cardinals couldn’t have a more different feeling heading into the week. They had a real opportunity to take the division lead, but quite literally fell short after a 49-yard field goal attempt from Zane Gonzalez didn’t have the distance. I expect a lot of points in this one, and a serious MVP-caliber dual between Kyler Murray and Josh Allen.
The Pick: Cardinals 38-35
Seahawks v. Rams (-1.5)
A huge NFC West matchup in Los Angeles. The Rams have a chance to come off the bye week and even the score with Seattle. These two will meet up again in week 16, so the winner this week could be huge heading into their later matchup. This is the type of game that creates an MVP moment for Russell Wilson. His past few weeks have seen him slip up a little bit in the race. Grabbing a season-defining win over a rival is exactly what puts you back on top.
The Pick: Seahawks 34-27
49ers v. Saints (-9.5)
At the beginning of the season, this might’ve been named the matchup of the season in the NFC. Unfortunately, the 49ers are pretty much the 19ers right now given how many quality starters this team is missing. The Saints just blew out the Bucs on national TV and are getting Michael Thomas back in the groove of the offense. I don’t think this will be close at all.
The Pick: Saints 35-13
Bengals v. Steelers (-8.5)
I am so tempted to roll with Joey Burrow and the Bengals in this one. The Steelers have not impressed me all year despite their perfect record, and last week’s performance against Garrett Gilbert and Dallas did not instill any confidence. Nonetheless, when you go through half a season without losing a game, there are clearly things that are working. Pittsburgh has a phenomenal pass rush, which should obliterate the Cincy line and stifle the rook. Experience will be the difference in this one.
The Pick: Steelers 27-13
Sunday Night- Ravens (-7) v. Patriots
Flex scheduling begins in Week 11, which makes me believe we were one week away from seeing this game get bumped from primetime. The Ravens have been a form of Patriot kryptonite for a while, and that was when the two teams had some competitive balance. This year’s version of the Patriots needed a last-second field goal to beat Joe Flacco and the New York Jets. Never count out Bill Belichick, but the Ravens are the far more explosive team.
The Pick: Ravens 31-20
Monday Night- Vikings (-3.5) v. Bears
Remember when the Bears were 5-1 and the Vikings were 1-5. Funny how things change. If there were ever a matchup of two teams trending in polar opposite directions, here it is. The Bears can keep this interesting if their defense can bait Kirk Cousins into enough mistakes. With the way Dalvin Cook has been playing, not only do I think he’ll carry Minnesota to a win, but I think he’s emerging as a legitimate non-QB MVP candidate if the Vikings can get back to a playoff position.
The Pick: Vikings 27-17
MVP Race Update
5. Kyler Murray (QB- Arizona): Consider him more of a “4B” with my other 4th place selection. This week will answer a lot of questions in this debate.
4. Josh Allen (QB- Buffalo): The show-stopping performance against Seattle gives him the slight edge over Murray. Whoever wins this week will maintain this lead.
3. Russell Wilson (QB- Seattle): The first time all year I think there’s a legitimate claim to put him this low. Bad loss + 4 turnovers + other guys balling out= Tough scene for Russ. He can very easily get right back into the top spot, however.
2. Aaron Rodgers (QB- Green Bay): The baaaad man is back. The numbers have been phenomenal and he’s got the Packers humming again.
1. Patrick Mahomes (QB- Kansas City): Fight me on this. Call it a bias if you want, but I think it’s indisputable right now. A 25-1 TD to INT ratio is unheard of, he’s second in passing yards, AND the Chiefs are 8-1. I truly believe if the vote was today it would be unanimous.
Fantasy Plays
Five to Play With Confidence:
- Cooper Kupp- Kupp had a season-high in catches and yards in their last game against Miami. Along with that he received 20 (20!!) targets. He gets a great matchup against Seattle’s secondary and is fresh off a bye week.
- Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic- The new running back duo in Washington will have a great opportunity to shine against a terrible Lions defense. Gibson has great touchdown upside, and McKissic will likely be the beneficiary of a lot of Alex Smith check downs.
- Jerry Jeudy- The Denver rookie is starting to emerge. He’s gotten more than 10 targets in each of his last two games and should have a great chance to dominate a poor Vegas defense.
- Nick Chubb- The Texans are the perfect team for Chubb to return against. I expect him to shake the rust off quickly.
- DJ Chark Jr.- It looks like Jake Luton will get the start again this week. Chark exhibited chemistry with Luton that we hadn’t seen with Gardner Minshew this year. Add that to the fact that he’s getting healthier, and the fact that the Jags will likely be playing catchup all game and I think Chark is a great play this week.
Five to Hesitate On:
- Jonathan Taylor– As a guy with Taylor on multiple teams, this one hurts. It’s not as much a knock on him as it is on how he’s being used. I worry a lot about a three-headed backfield where you never really know who the go-to guy will be.
- DJ Moore- Moore’s past two weeks have been troubling. The matchup with Tampa is a tough one as well. I’d be more confident in Robby Anderson this week between Carolina’s two stud receivers.
- Josh Jacobs- Jacobs has had a tough time putting together 3 solid weeks in a row throughout this season. Denver isn’t a great matchup for him on top of that troubling trend. If you’re blessed with RB depth, this might be a week to get bold and try out someone else.
- Joe Mixon- There’s a lot that worries me about Mixon this week. For starters, I hate the matchup with the Steelers. On top of that, he’s still listed as questionable even after having a bye week to get healthy. That tells me that even if he does go, he’s not fully healthy and that the day-to-day label could be misleading. If he goes, you probably start him, but this could be a weaker week for him.
- Adam Thielen- Dalvin Cook’s hot surge has definitely taken away from Thielen and Justin Jefferson. I see no reason why the Vikings won’t continue to lean on Cook against a tough Chicago secondary, thus creating a potential tough week for Minnesota’s #1 WR.
