Welcome to the second week of my NFL weekly previews! Last week in the National Football League was certifiably wild, and now we’re seeing some serious playoff chatter heat up for Week 11. My first week of dishing out picks and advice had some highs and some lows. Thankfully, I didn’t make enough of a fool of myself to require never running this segment again!
It’s crazy that I’m focusing on a football preview the night of the NBA Draft, but if you need that too, look no further. While we all can’t wait to see how the Knicks screw up their future yet again, this article is to make sure you’ve got everything you need heading into Seahawks-Cardinals tomorrow night.
Weekly Picks:
Last Week: 10-4 Straight up, 7-7 Against the Spread
Thursday Night: Cardinals v. Seahawks (-3)
A rematch of a Sunday Night overtime thriller earlier in the year kicks off Week 11. The Cards and the Hawks share a three-way lead for the NFC West right now with Rams. With both Arizona and L.A. owning head-to-head wins over Seattle, this game is huge for them. I said last week that Russ could have an MVP moment in a defining win over the Rams. Instead, it was Kyler Murray’s “Hail Murray” that proved to be the potential iconic moment of the week. This is a very tough game to call, but I still trust Russ under the brightest lights.
The Pick: Seahawks 31-28
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Eagles v. Browns (-3.5)
The Browns were very uninspiring in their low-scoring win over Houston last week. The Eagles continued to prove that the NFC East deserves no attention or love. In one of the upset picks I hit on, the Giants ran Philly from start to finish, throwing up serious questions about what’s going on in the City of Brotherly Love. I can’t see the Eagles righting the ship against a team that needs to win these type of games to keep their playoff push alive.
The Pick: Browns 24-13
Falcons v. Saints (-5)
This game is a whole lot more interesting than you might think initially. The Falcons always play the Saints tough, as division games are naturally more unpredictable. Throw in the loss of Drew Brees and that’s another compelling factor in the case for Atlanta. The Falcons have the air attack to pull this upset off, especially if Jameis Winston falters in his first start of the year. However, New Orleans is a great football team. Great football teams find ways to get it done through adversity.
The Pick: Saints 31-27
Bengals v. Football Team (-2)
Yeah, this game screams Sunday morning kickoff. Incredible effort from Alex Smith and the Football Team last week as they came all the way back from 24-3 to seemingly force overtime before a 59 yard field goal at the buzzer put the game away. Seriously, give Alex Comeback POTY right now. Joe Burrow is probably excited to see any defense other than the Steelers after the dismantling last week. I like the Rookie to get it done in a slight upset.
The Pick: Bengals 27-24
Lions v. Panthers (-1.5)
These are two teams that I think are probably better than their records show. Detroit is a Week 1 DeAndre Swift drop away from being in the Wild Card slot right now, and Carolina has the most offensive talent I think I’ve ever seen on a 3-7 team. With the Bears struggling, I think the Lions see a real opportunity to jump right back into the playoff hunt with a few wins in a row. The Panthers are still struggling to close, and I think Matt Stafford gets them again.
The Pick: Lions 34-31
Steelers (-9) v. Jaguars
Last week I took the Packers to smoke the Jags and cover the biggest spread of the week. To my surprise, the pesky Jaguars showed a lot of fight and not only covered, but for a strong portion of the game looked like they were about to pull off the upset of the year. While I want to say I learned from picking against them with that big of a margin, I think the Steelers are a nightmare for Jake Luton. This team isn’t going to let him or James Robinson make any chunk plays, and I’d be stunned if the Jags got a special teams touchdown two weeks in a row.
The Pick: Steelers 34-13
Titans v. Ravens (-6.5)
Probably the best game of the early window this week, and a lovely shot at a revenge game for Baltimore. Here are two teams that really, really need a win. The Titans can’t afford to lose any more ground on Indianapolis after a Thursday Night smackdown last week, while if the Ravens drop this one, it could wrap up the AFC North for Pittsburgh. Baltimore clearly was not ready for the conditions at Gillette Stadium on Sunday Night, and the result was the Patriots exposing a lot of weaknesses in their game. The Ravens need to figure out a way to get Hollywood Brown going and free their receiving core (#FreeDez). In games like these where both teams are trending in the wrong direction, I lean on the most dynamic player on the field to make the most plays. That player is Lamar Jackson, and this will be a signature win for him.
The Pick: Ravens 28-24
Patriots (-2.5) v. Texans
Are the Pats back? You just never can count out a Bill Belichick squad can you? Just when we think they’ve finally come back down to earth, they go dominate Baltimore in the rain from wire to wire. While they won’t get to see Deshaun Watson in horrible weather like they did with Lamar, I still think the defense will make enough plays. If the offense can’t bust out this week against a putrid Texans D, then I don’t think they ever will.
The Pick: Patriots 24-17
Dolphins (-3.5) v. Broncos
Boy, did the Broncos let me down last week. As my sneaky upset pick of the week, Denver got absolutely shellacked by the Raiders. Drew Lock’s time as a starting QB in this league is ticking, and he really needs to put together a string of phenomenal games to end this year to keep his (and likely John Elway’s) job safe. For a guy that turns the ball over a lot, a matchup with Miami’s opportunistic defense is probably not a great one.
The Pick: Dolphins 31-20
Jets v. Chargers (-8.5)
The Chargers being more than a touchdown favorite against anyone should really illustrate just how bad people think the Jets are. We are talking about a team that finds miraculous ways to lose football games every week, and people still expect them to not only find a way to win, but to win big. It’s me. I’m people. The Jets are awful and Justin Herbert will have a field day.
The Pick: Chargers 38-17
Packers v. Colts (-2)
I think the toughest game for me to get a read on this week. I truthfully don’t know what to make of the Colts. Their defense is absolutely legitimate, and they seem to have found something utilizing Nyheim Hines as a Swiss-army knife in their offense. The Packers looked shaky against Jacksonville, and there will be a lot of talk about the Davante Adams v. Indy secondary matchup this week. Green Bay will need other playmakers to step up, but I think Aaron Rodgers wills his team to a huge win in their quest for the NFC’s top seed.
The Pick: Packers 28-27
Cowboys v. Vikings (-7)
The Vikings just keep rolling along. If you look at the rest of their schedule, I really think they have a good opportunity to mimic the 2015 Chiefs and go from a 1-5 team to a playoff team. The Minnesota weapons against Dallas’ defense is a huge mismatch, and I don’t think Andy Dalton playing upgrades Dallas too much over Garrett Gilbert.
The Pick: Vikings 35-21
Sunday Night: Chiefs (-7) v. Raiders
As much as I dislike the Raiders, I can admit that the NFL is better when they are competitive. Having a meaningful Raiders-Chiefs rivalry makes for great football and great drama. All week the talk has been about the alleged Jon Gruden “Victory Lap” taken around Arrowhead Stadium after Vegas pulled off a shocking win earlier in the year. Here’s an opportunity for the Raiders to legitimize that win. The Chiefs have not been swept in a division series since Peyton Manning and the Broncos got them both times in 2014. Andy Reid off a bye week is historically good. I expect the Chiefs to be the team making the statement this time around.
The Pick: Chiefs 42-28
Monday Night: Rams v. Buccaneers (-3.5)
I think this game is actually historical. This kickoff will mark the first time I can remember that the NFL successfully scheduled meaningful, exciting matchups in the Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night slates. The Rams are probably football’s most underrated team. We love to hype up Seattle and Arizona, but forget this team is two years removed from the Super Bowl. Tampa bounced back emphatically against Carolina, and it looks like AB is discovering what his role in their packed offense can look like. Jalen Ramsey clamped DK Metcalf last week and he’ll get thrown right back into the fire against Tampa’s dynamic core. I think Aaron Donald will be the difference maker in this one, scoring L.A. a huge win.
The Pick: Rams 27-24
MVP Race
5. Russell Wilson- Am I overreacting to a few bad weeks. Probably? Do the guys I’m putting ahead of him all have legitimate claims over him? I very much think so.
4. Josh Allen- What a game we got in Arizona last week. Allen did everything he possibly could do set up a win for Buffalo. It was a performance that deserves a move up on these rankings despite the loss.
3. Aaron Rodgers- Drops one spot, but not a knock on him. Despite Jacksonville playing the Packers wayyy closer than they should have, Rodgers did his thing. A win over the Colts this week could launch him back up.
2. Kyler Murray- Let’s get a little crazy. You wanna talk about MVP moments? You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better one than Murray’s iconic Hail Mary to beat Buffalo. His numbers are on par with Lamar’s runaway MVP season last year. If he pulls off the season sweep of Seattle, he may find his way into the top spot.
1. Patrick Mahomes- Not knocking him because of a bye week. The numbers are still ridiculous and he’ll get a shot to remind the nation in primetime on Sunday Night.
Fantasy Plays:
Five to Play With Confidence:
- Keenan Allen- Slot style receivers have killed the Jets all year long. Keenan is one of the best slot receivers in the game, and even though I think the Chargers might be running the whole 4th quarter, he will get his targets early and could have a monster game.
- Damien Harris- I always worry about hyping up a New England running back, but Harris has been a bell cow for the Pats this year, and he’s not going to get many matchups better than Houston. In every game but one he’s averaged over 5 yards per carry.
- Mike Davis- I have Davis on a few teams as a handcuff to CMC so I know how frustrating the past few weeks have been. If you saw what the JD McKissic/Antonio Gibson combo did to Detroit last week, you’ve got to recognize the potential in giving Davis one more chance with McCaffrey still sidelined. He can beat you in the run or the pass, and this is the perfect matchup for him.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire- Gut pick here more than anything else. The Chiefs barely utilized him last time they played the Raiders, and he still got 4 yards per carry and had 80 yards from scrimmage. If you take a close look at Clyde’s game log you’ll notice that far and away his three best games this year have all been standalone primetime games. He shines when the lights are brightest.
- D’Andre Swift- I hesitate with Lions running backs just as I do with Patriots backs, but Swift is really starting to shine. The pass-catching ability is beginning to show up more in the gameplan and he’s finally been given 10+ carries in back-to-back weeks.
Five To Hesitate on:
- Ronald Jones III- I understand the potential after what he did to the Panthers last week, but the Rams present a tougher challenge. I do think he is better than Leonard Fournette and could be a viable flex option if you’re thin, but don’t expect another monster run and 20+ carries.
- Jarvis Landry- The Eagles are bad and Landry is the Browns’ top option. It should make a lot of sense, but I don’t like the matchup with Darius Slay. I’m more inclined to think Cleveland will feed its running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt yet again.
- Tyler Boyd- Washington has actually been better than people realize against receivers. On top of that, it looks each week as if Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins are starting to develop the chemistry that will make them a top combo in the league for years to come. Boyd could be the loser in that scenario.
- Todd Gurley– Gurley is perplexing from a fantasy standpoint. He has broken 100 yards only once this season, yet remains a top 10 fantasy back because of how often he finds the end zone. That obviously makes sitting him very risky. The Saints have been #1 in the league against running backs from a fantasy standpoint. If there were a team to keep him from finding pay dirt, it would be them.
- Any Rams Running Back- The Rams went similar to the Colts last week, unleashing a three-headed committee that all found success against Seattle. That approach worries me from a fantasy perspective in terms of two week sustainability. Throw in the fact that Tampa is much better against the run than Seattle is, and I’d hesitate on Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson this week.