Welcome back to another weekly NFL Preview! Week 12 has phenomenal matchups, and significant playoff implications for both the NFL teams, and many fantasy managers as well.
Thanksgiving weekend always signifies that we’re truly in the heat of the NFL season. There are few traditions I love more than watching average Lions and Cowboys teams take on subpar opponents on Thanksgiving. The NFL blessed me yet again this year, as Detroit gets the Texans while Dallas will take on Washington.
While I hit on my fantasy picks last week, I’m in need of a bounce back on my game picks. Let’s get to it.
Last Week: 7-7 Straight up, 6-8 ATS
Running Total: 17-11 Straight up, 13-15 ATS
Thanksgiving Games
Texans (-3) vs. Lions
We were treated to a vintage Deshaun Watson performance last week in a win over the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Lions were shutout against an average Panthers defense. Matt Stafford has had some crazy circumstances this season, but he has to be better than what’s done when he is on the field. Quarterback play will be the difference in this one.
The Pick- Texans 24-16
Washington vs. Cowboys (-3)
Possibly the first time in history that two 3-7 teams will be fighting for the division lead. Watching the NFC East teams feels like a punishment at this point, but both of these teams did show signs of life last week. Andy Dalton looked competent enough at quarterback in a surprising win over the Vikings for Dallas. The Football Team jumped the Bengals as soon as Joe Burrow had to be carted off the field. If the version of the Cowboys that showed up last week can continue to show up, I think they’re probably the new team to beat in the division that changes every week.
The Pick- Cowboys 26-17
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Raiders (-3) vs. Falcons
Don’t let the loss fool you; the Raiders are legit. Derek Carr carved up the Chiefs secondary and had them a Patrick Mahomes money drive away from a season sweep of the defending champs. The defense has holes, that is clear, but that is a tough football team that will make noise in the playoffs. Atlanta’s offense was silenced by the Saints last week, and I think while I think they will put up some points this week, I’m not sure it’ll be enough.
The Pick- Raiders 30-24
Chargers vs. Bills (-5.5)
Well, the Chargers did their best to blow another game late. Thankfully, the Jets are even better losers than the Chargers are. Justin Herbert is on pace to have the greatest rookie quarterback season of all time, and his team might not win 5 games. That is absurd. The Bills were gifted some breathing room during their bye week after Denver upset Miami. I think this game will be closer than the line indicates, but I trust Buffalo and Josh Allen to close out a victory.
The Pick- Bills 34-30
Giants (-6) vs. Bengals
Seeing the Joe Burrow injury was one of the worst moments of the season for me. I can’t remember a time there’s been a #1 pick quarterback that has been as universally respected and liked as Burrow has been this season. All year people worried that the Bengals line would be his demise. With both Burrow and Joe Mixon on the shelf, the Giants have a great opportunity to snag a key win. Look for Danny Dimes to use his legs as a weapon in this one.
The Pick: Giants 20-17
Titans vs. Colts (-3)
The rematch with huge playoff implications. Both of these teams scored huge wins last week over quality opponents to keep pace with one another. A Colts victory could wrap up the division, as it gives them a season sweep over the Titans. Two weeks ago I trusted Tennessee in this matchup and they got blown out. I’m sticking with them, and hopefully they reward my trust.
The Pick- Titans 27-24
Panthers vs. Vikings (-4)
This is probably the toughest game of the week for me to get a read on. I cannot get a read on either of these teams. The Vikings were on such a roll, only for the Cowboys to bring them back down to earth a little bit. PJ Walker looked like he definitely has some value in the league as he orchestrated the Carolina offense in Teddy Bridgewater’s absence. Bridgewater should be good to go this weekend, but my gut tells me that Minnesota gets it done, regardless of who’s under center.
The Pick- Vikings 27-24
Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Patriots
The Pats reeled me back in, and then seriously let me down with an uninspiring loss to Houston. They now face basically a more dynamic version of the Texans in the Cardinals. Arizona cannot afford to drop any games that they’re favored in if they want to keep pace in the NFC West. I expect Kyler Murray and Co. to take care of business.
The Pick- Cardinals 28-17
Dolphins (-7) vs. Jets
The Dolphins had a real opportunity at this point in their schedule to gain some ground on the Bills. The favorable matchups on the schedule have to make last week’s loss to Denver all the more frustrating. Luckily for them, they have a great chance to right the ship against the Jets. I really think we’re looking at an 0-16 team here. It’s in the best interest of both of these teams for Miami to win.
The Pick- Dolphins 31-17
Browns (-7) vs. Jaguars
Mike Glennon has been announced as this week’s starter for Jacksonville. That should tell you all you need to know about how this year has gone for the Jags. People have knocked the Steelers all year long for riding an easy schedule, but where has that energy been for the Browns? If I had to call out a pretender in the AFC right now, I’d look at Cleveland. I think they’ll nab another win against a bad team this week, but I don’t trust them at all in any game that matters.
The Pick- Browns 20-14
Saints (-6) vs. Broncos
The switch to Taysom Hill at quarterback over Jameis Winston raised some eyebrows, but it looked pretty genius in action. Hill was dynamic running the Saints offense, and he looked to have a similar level of chemistry with Michael Thomas that we’ve seen from Drew Brees. Denver picked up a quality win over Miami last week, but this group is just too inconsistent right now to pull off back to back upsets.
The Pick- Saints 35-20
49ers vs. Rams (-7)
The Rams picked up a huge road win against Tampa on Monday Night. They’re rolling right now and they’re beating quality teams. This year has just been a tough luck type of season for the Niners. Not only have they been bitten the hardest by the injury bug, but they play in football’s toughest division. I expect the Rams to stay hot.
The Pick- Rams 24-14
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers
Another very tough game to pick. I think the Chiefs are easily the better football team, but the Bucs sense of urgency might be greater in this particular week. After the loss to the Rams, the Bucs absolutely have to finish the season strong not just to stay in the division hunt, but to nab the top Wild Card spot. Winning these tough games could be the difference between seeing the a top dog in round one, or an NFC East team. The Chiefs secondary had a tough night on Sunday, and it won’t get any easier with Tampa’s core. If the Chiefs hope to catch the Steelers, I think they can only afford to lose one more game this year. With a road game ahead against the Saints, this isn’t going to be the one.
The Pick- Chiefs 34-30
Time TBD: Ravens vs. Steelers (-4.5)
News broke that this game would be moved from Thursday night to sometime on Sunday after a COVID-19 outbreak hit the Ravens. As the best game of the Thanksgiving slate, this is obviously a bummer, but thankfully we should still get a great matchup later this week. I’ve been dead wrong on the Ravens in each of the last two weeks. I still think they’re a very talented football team, but a loss this week could really affect their ability to get into the playoffs. The Steelers have to feel disrespected by the media, and the chance to sweep the season series makes this a true “prove-it” game.
The Pick: Steelers 30-27
Sunday Night: Bears vs. Packers (-8.5)
Aaron Rodgers versus the Bears. It’s a classic primetime matchup and when the Bears are competitive it’s very compelling. Unfortunately, Chicago is falling apart. The quarterback situation is a mess and you have to think Matt Nagy’s seat is getting warmer. With that defense, there’s no reason you shouldn’t always be a playoff team. The Packers getting a win could go a long way in wrapping up the NFC North.
The Pick: Packers- 24-17
Monday Night: Seahawks (-5) vs. Eagles
What happened to Carson Wentz? If his career continues on the path this season has taken him down, his injury history will create one of the NFL’s greatest “what-ifs” in history. The Eagles are one of the most frustrating teams to watch, and I can’t imagine how much tougher that is when you’re a fan of them. Similar to the Cardinals, the Seahawks just can’t afford to drop these types of games. Russ gets it done on Monday night.
The Pick: Seahawks 31-20
MVP Race
5. Aaron Rodgers- He put together another solid game against the Colts last week.I know the fumble isn’t his fault, but you’ve got to find ways to win these big games when making your MVP case. He gets another great opportunity this Sunday Night in primetime.
4. Josh Allen- Similar to Mahomes last week, I can’t knock Allen for being on bye, especially when nobody did anything to seriously threaten his place on the list. He should be able to put up big numbers on the Chargers this week.
3. Kyler Murray- One of his weaker performances of the season has Murray dropping to 3 on my list. He has shown he can duel with Russ, and he’s had a ton of signature moments, but right now I think 4 is the right spot.
2. Russell Wilson- The big win against Arizona jumps Russ back up to the top 2. The interceptions are concerning, but he was able to get the Seahawks back in the win column with a huge divisional win. That’s exactly what MVPs do.
1. Patrick Mahomes- He had his MVP moment everybody. The telltale sign of a superstar quarterback in this league is how people react when they get the ball back with only a minute or so on the clock. Not only was the general consensus on social media that the Raiders gave Mahomes too much time to work with on his game-winning drive, but he proved it. That was one of the easiest looking game-winning drives I’ve ever seen. There was never a doubt. His stats match his clutch factor. Ladies and gentlemen, here’s your 2020 MVP.
Fantasy Advice
5 To Play With Confidence:
- Taysom Hill- He was a tremendous play when he had TE eligibility last week. He’s still a great play even if it’s in your quarterback slot. He’s got good chemistry with his receivers, and the rushing yards still count the same no matter the position label. I think Hill is a viable QB1 until Drew Brees returns.
- Robby Anderson- It’s pretty amazing that Anderson has been a top 20 WR with only one touchdown on the season. That speaks to his volume in Carolina’s offense. It’s highly unlikely that a gamebreaker like Anderson finishes an entire season with only one score. A great matchup against Minnesota makes me like his chances for a huge game this week.
- Calvin Ridley- It’s been a few weeks since Ridley really had a signature game. Between the injuries and the bye week he’s been a little frustrating lately. I think we’re going to see a fully healthy Ridley get back to what he was doing at the beginning of the season with a good matchup against a poor Vegas secondary.
- Brandin Cooks- The Lions defense has offered a fantasy friendly play for just about every team this year. This week, I like Cooks to be the guy that turns in a big performance, especially with the news of Jeff Okudah being ruled out.
- Kareem Hunt- His stock obviously takes a hit with Nick Chubb back in full form, but Hunt is still a top 10 play for me. He’s a stud in the backfield and gets a great matchup against Jacksonville.
5 To Hesitate On:
- Amari Cooper- Washington actually has been one of the best defenses in the league against receivers this year. Andy Dalton definitely looked Cooper’s way more than the other QBs in Dallas have, but I don’t love this matchup.
- Mark Andrews- He’s Lamar Jackson’s best weapon, but Pittsburgh has been very tough on tight ends all season long. The inconsistency plus the matchup worries me, but I also realize that there aren’t a lot of upgrades at the TE spot.
- Deebo Samuel- Samuel is on track to return from injury this week, but that doesn’t mean you should throw him right back into your lineup. He’ll likely see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, and he doesn’t have Jimmy G throwing him the ball. All of that plus shaking off the rust worries me.
- Gus Edwards- Doubling down on Ravens in this week’s edition. There will be a lot of buzz toward starting him with JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram out with COVID. Pittsburgh is equally as tough on running backs as they are on tight ends. Be cautious rushing to the waiver wires.
- Mike Williams- The Bills have been tough on receivers all year long. Keenan Allen is on such a tear right now that I can’t see him being slowed down, but Williams could have a tough day on Sunday. He does have some touchdown potential if the Chargers are constantly playing from behind, however.
