Another week in the NFL has arrived. Week 15 had some shocking upsets and created some serious changes in playoff position. Week 16 should be no different, as every game means a little bit more than it did the week before.
Last week’s upsets are still fresh in my mind, as the two games I would’ve considered to be the easiest locks of the week ended up being the only two I missed. So thank you, Los Angeles Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers, for keeping me from a 16-0 week.
Last Week: 14-2 Straight Up, 12-4 ATS
Running Total: 66-25 Straight Up, 51-40 ATS
Christmas Day: Vikings vs. Saints (-7)
Let me start this one by saying that I love that the NFL opted for a Christmas Day game on Friday rather than sticking with Thursday Night Football this week. I know the NBA typically rules Christmas, but having the one game will be a nice change of pace for avid sports watchers. With that said, I’m not sure how great of a game we’re going to get. The Vikings have hit a wall lately, and the Saints have dropped their last two as well. I think New Orleans’ pass rush will cause a lot of problems for Kirk Cousins.
The Pick: Saints 31-23
Saturday Games
Buccaneers (-9.5) vs. Lions
The Bucs became the latest team to prove that the Falcons have no idea how to hold onto a lead. After getting nothing offensively in the first half, they easily erased a 17 point deficit in the second to stay alive in the NFC South race. The Lions’ season is practically over at this point, and the focus should start to shift towards draft position. I do think they will keep this closer than people expect, however.
The Pick: Bucs 34-27
49ers vs. Cardinals (-5)
The Cardinals will try to complete the season sweep of the Niners while also looking to hold onto the 7th seed in the playoffs. Kyler and D-Hop were in sync last week, and when that happens this team is very tough to beat. The Niners are simply too depleted at this point in the season to deliver a significant loss to their division rivals.
The Pick: Cardinals 31-20
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders
The Raiders are essentially out of the playoff race, needing a miracle to sneak into the last spot. Miami is in the thick of the hunt, and with Buffalo looming in Week 17, they really need a win this week. This is a great defense for Tua to put some numbers up against as the Dolphins will continue to compete with the big boys of the AFC.
The Pick: Dolphins 30-28
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Browns (-9.5) vs. Jets
Congratulations(?) to the Jets. They pulled off a stunning upset over the Rams last week and will not be going winless. However, it might cost them the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. I don’t expect them to make it two in a row against a Browns team that suddenly has a great chance to win the AFC North.
The Pick: Browns 34-17
Colts (-2) vs. Steelers
How the mighty have fallen. That’s three straight L’s for the Steelers, and if you throw in Juju Smith-Schuster Twitter slander you might as well add a few more to the loss column. The Steelers simply have not looked good ever since losing Bud Dupree. The offense is, dare I say, bad. Indy is rolling right now and I expect them to grab another W to keep the pressure on the Titans.
The Pick: Colts 24-20
Bears (-7.5) vs. Jaguars
The Bears have life! A big win over Minnesota last week kept Chicago’s playoff chances alive, and a great matchup with the Jags gives them a chance to get back over 500. Jacksonville was just gifted Trevor Lawrence as long as they can lose out, and it makes no sense for them to win any more games after such a blessing. Knowing that, and knowing that these are the Bears, the Jags will probably win. However, I’m rolling with Mitch.
The Pick: Bears 27-20
Falcons vs. Chiefs (-10.5)
One more win locks up the bye and the top seed for KC. Atlanta’s defense isn’t exactly built to stop the Chiefs’ air raid offense, and I’m not sure that their running game is good enough to keep Kansas City off the field. The Chiefs haven’t really blown teams out, and the Falcons have a knack for making games interesting so I do think this will be closer than expected. With that said, the Chiefs should wrap things up on Sunday.
The Pick: Chiefs 34-27
Giants vs. Ravens (-10.5)
Baltimore is hot right now. Lamar Jackson has looked like the MVP version of himself the past few weeks and the Ravens have needed it. Still on the outside looking in, they cannot afford to slip up. The Giants have similar stakes, as a loss this week could be it for their playoff hopes depending on what else happens in the NFC Least. The Giants couldn’t get it going against Cleveland, and I don’t think they’ll break out against Baltimore.
The Pick: Ravens 31-19
Bengals vs. Texans (-7.5)
Shoutout to the Bengals for doing exactly what you want to see division bottom feeders do to their rivals. Their win over Pittsburgh was chippy, tough-nosed, and exactly what you want in a rivalry game. I’m not sure they’ll get up the same way for a morning game against the Texans. Deshaun Watson should have a day, and I think the Texans will win a fairly close one.
The Pick: Texans 27-23
Broncos vs. Chargers (-3.5)
The Chargers have looked a lot better ever since Bill Belichick and the Patriots humbled them a few weeks back. Justin Herbert looks more and more legit each week, and you can tell that Austin Ekeler’s presence just adds another element. Denver is baffling. I just don’t know what to make of Drew Lock at this point in his career. Changes are coming for both of these teams in the offseason, and that’s about the only thing I’m sure of when it comes to this matchup.
The Pick: Chargers 31-30
Panthers vs. Football Team (-1)
Another close game that the Panthers just couldn’t come out on top in. If I’m a fan, I have to be encouraged by Matt Rhule in year 1 despite the record. I think at full strength, Carolina can be a solid team over the next few years if they find the right QB. Washington really needs a victory. There’s been a lot going on outside of football lately, and that further complicates the QB situation with Alex Smith likely out again. The defense will have to will them to a win, and I think they get it done.
The Pick: Washington 23-20
Eagles (-2.5) vs. Cowboys
Philly looks like they’ve got their guy. Despite the loss, Jalen Hurts shined yet again and the Eagles just look better offensively when he’s at the helm. The loser of this game is out of the race while the winner might be able to survive until the final week depending on what Washington and New York do. Dallas has looked better these past few weeks, but I have to go with the rookie sensation.
The Pick: Eagles 30-26
Rams vs. Seahawks (-1.5)
It’s hard to truly state how bad of a loss the Rams just had to the Jets. Not only was it to possibly the worst team of the past 10 years, but with games against Seattle and Arizona left, it could really haunt them in the playoff race. This is a must win for Los Angeles. They handled the Seahawks earlier this year, but that’s tough to do twice. I love Week 17 chaos, and solely for that reason, I will pick the Rams to respond with a statement victory.
The Pick: Rams 24-21
Sunday Night: Titans vs. Packers (-3.5)
Derrick Henry needs to average 160 rushing yards over the final two weeks to hit the 2000 mark on the year. For a guy like him, that is certainly in range. Not only would those numbers reach a milestone, but it would likely translate in the W column as well. The Packers looked off in the second half against Carolina, but Aaron Rodgers just knows how to win. With that said, the AFC West is coming down to the wire, and I think the Titans steal a victory here to bring it down to the final week.
The Pick: Titans 35-31
Monday Night: Bills (-7) vs. Patriots
The Patriots are officially out of playoff contention and how strange a sight it is. The Bills winning the AFC East feels perfect for the year that 2020 has been. They have an outside shot at the top seed, but that goes away if they slip up in Foxboro. Josh Allen has been phenomenal in the second half of the season, and he’ll keep it up with a nice Monday night victory.
The Pick: Bills 30-24
MVP Race
5. Derrick Henry: Yeah, he’s back in here. A shot at 2k is remarkable, and deserves serious recognition.
4. Russell Wilson: Russ made just enough plays to get the win last week against Washington, and that’s what great QBs do. I really would love to see him finally win an MVP, but this year just isn’t gonna be the one.
3. Josh Allen: Incredible season all around. 3rd place in this year’s race is nothing to be ashamed of. Allen is going to be the guy in Buffalo for a long time.
2. Aaron Rodgers: He came back down to earth a little bit last week against the Panthers, but his numbers are still absurd and his team keeps winning.
1. Patrick Mahomes: The odds-on favorite was at it again last week against the Saints. Even with a beaten up offensive line and a crazy good pass rush breathing down his neck, Mahomes always finds a way to make a play. We’re witnessing greatness, and it’s time to enjoy the ride that’s about to come.
*Our odds are provided by our friends at BUSR. If you want to get in on the action and place a bet today, head over to Busr.com/StudentUnionSports.
Fantasy Advice
Five to Play With Confidence:
- Gio Bernard- Running backs have done it all year against Houston. Bernard had one of his better games last week, and should keep it going against a bad rushing defense.
- Tua Tagovailoa- Tua’s been an interesting fantasy play throughout the year, but the matchup against Vegas paired with his rushing upside makes him a viable QB1 this week in my opinion.
- J.D. McKissic- With or without Antonio Gibson, I like McKissic this week. Carolina gives up numbers to RBs, and his versatility only helps his fantasy production.
- Darnell Mooney- If your league is deeper, or you’re dealing with injuries, I really like Mooney this week as an upside pick. He’s had a touchdown each of the last two weeks, and the Jags have struggled against receivers all year.
- Jeff Wilson Jr– Raheem Mostert was just placed on IR, meaning that Wilson will be the guy for the Niners this week. Splitting carries he had 60 yards and a touchdown last week. I think he could have another solid day this week.
Five to Hesitate On:
- Curtis Samuel/Robby Anderson- I’m not big on either of Carolina’s secondary receivers this week. The matchup against Washington is a brutal one, and when it’s tough like that, teams tend to look for their best guy, which in the case of the Panthers, is DJ Moore.
- Le’Veon Bell- Bell isn’t a terrible play this week, and I still think he may be worth a start, but I would be wary about jumping the gun with him. The carries should be there with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out for the rest of the regular season, but you just never know with Andy Reid. The Chiefs could go very pass heavy against a bad Atlanta secondary, and they might also lean on Darrel Williams more than they have before.
- Amari Cooper- Cooper was clamped the last time he met Philly. Darius Slay will likely be following him for most of the game. While I don’t think it’ll be as bad as his 1 catch for 5 yards like last game, I’m not expecting a monster day either.
- DJ Chark- Chark is perplexing. The breakout potential each game is certainly there, and you never want to see him go off on your bench. On the other hand, he’s had some pretty rough games as well, and the matchup with Chicago isn’t a favorable one.
- Kenyan Drake- Drake saw his share of carries go down as Chase Edmonds found more touches than usual last week. That creates a sense of uncertainty, and then you factor in the fact that the Niners have been tough on RBs all year. That’s a lot of risk in fantasy championship week.