We’ve reached the final week of the NFL Season. With the year we’ve had, it’s quite amazing that the NFL was able to get through this year with only a few hiccups along the way. On top of it all, we’ve got a lot of meaningful matchups to conclude the year. Nothing is final yet, and almost every game this week can influence something, whether it be the playoffs or the draft.
There’s going to be a slight change to the format this week. I’ll make my picks for each game like usual, but instead of focusing on the MVP race, I’m just going to give you my final season picks for all of the major awards. I’ve greatly enjoyed sharing my thoughts on the season all year long, and I hope you all have taken something out of these as well!
Last Week: 8-8 Straight Up, 6-10 ATS
Running Total: 74-33 Straight Up, 57-50 ATS
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Dolphins vs. Bills (-2.5)
Kicking things off with one of the biggest games of the week. The Bills look pretty unstoppable right now, but this is arguably a bigger game for the Dolphins. Tua is going to have to bring his best stuff knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be unavailable for Miami. Buffalo is choosing to go with their starters, as they don’t want to take any chances slipping to the three seed to get them as many home games as possible in the playoffs. With how hot Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are right now, I think they deliver a significant blow to Miami’s chances.
The Pick: Bills 31-24
Ravens (-13) vs. Bengals
The Ravens might be football’s hottest team heading into the playoffs. Crazy enough, if they were to slip up against the Bengals, there’s a chance they wouldn’t even make it. Cincy has strung together a couple of wins and should certainly be taken seriously this week, but I can’t see Lamar slowing down enough for what would be a catastrophic loss.
The Pick: Ravens 35-24
Steelers vs Browns (-9.5)
The spread is likely a product of the Steelers electing to rest Ben Roethlisberger and go with Mason Rudolph. Along with that, it’s been announced that Cam Heyward and TJ Watt will also not suit up for Pittsburgh. This is probably the biggest game in Cleveland in the 2000s. Baker Mayfield has been solid all year, but getting the Browns to the playoffs would truly endure him to the city. I think the Browns defense will make enough plays against Rudolph that it will be tough for the Steelers to score, especially given their lack of a run game. Let the party begin in Cleveland.
The Pick: Browns 23-17
Vikings (-4.5) vs. Lions
A fairly meaningless game for two teams that have to feel like this season was a major disappointment. You have to respect Matt Stafford for gutting it out and planning on playing this week. He has to be regarded as one of the toughest players the league has seen in recent memory. Dalvin Cook won’t go this week after the tragic passing of his father. I still like the Vikings to close the season on a high note.
The Pick: Vikings 27-21
Jets vs. Patriots (-3)
The Patriots playing a meaningless Week 17 game is crazy. What’s crazier is that it wouldn’t be that surprising if the Jets were to beat them to end the year. The first pick is out of the picture for New York, so there’s really no need to emphasize the tank anymore. With that said, I just can’t see Bill Belichick allowing his team to end a year with a loss to Adam Gase.
The Pick: Patriots 24-20
Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Giants
The big one out of the early window. The winner of this game will immediately become big fans of the Eagles, as a win here paired with a Washington loss gives this game’s winner a playoff spot. The Giants have gone cold while the Cowboys are playing much better football under Andy Dalton. I think those trends continue and it will be Dallas sweating out Sunday Night Football.
The Pick: Cowboys 30-20
Falcons vs. Buccaneers (-7)
While the NFC South is unattainable, the Bucs still would like to finish with a win to give them the 5th seed in the NFC. A slip-up could be the difference between a matchup with the NFC East representative or one of the conference’s top 3. I don’t think Tom Brady will let his team drop this one.
The Pick: Bucs 28-24
Packers (-4) vs. Bears
Who would’ve thought the Bears would control their own destiny heading into the final week of the season. Question him all you want, but Mitch Trubisky has helped turn Chicago’s season back around, and along with David Montgomery, has made this offense entertaining to watch. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers awaits. Rodgers has crushed the hopes of this fanbase time after time, and it just feels likely that he delivers another blow this week.
The Pick: Packers 34-28
Raiders (-2.5) vs. Broncos
The Raiders have fallen off in remarkable fashion this year. It is astounding how quickly they slipped out of the playoff picture. There’s going to be a lot of questions for them to address this offseason. With that said, things aren’t much different in Denver. The focus for both these teams is on the future, but for now I’ll take Vegas to finish out the year with a win.
The Pick: Raiders 26-23
Jaguars vs. Colts (-14)
The Jags only win of the year came in the season opener against the Colts. Is there any chance they could bookend the season with another victory? I’m thinking most likely not. The Colts find themselves on the outside looking in following a second half collapse against the Steelers. They need extra help, and I don’t expect them to just bow out with what would be a stunning loss. The key? Feed Jonathan Taylor. Taylor barely touched the ball in the second half last week, and we saw what happens when you alienate one of your best talents.
The Pick: Colts 35-20
Cardinals (-3) vs. Rams
John Wolford Szn. I can’t imagine anyone expected Wolford to make his NFL debut at QB in a must-win situation. The Rams are making their fan base sweat it out more and more as they’ve been stuck at 9 wins for a few weeks now. Arizona isn’t exactly scorching either. Kyler Murray looked human in last weeks loss to the 49ers. With Goff out, Arizona should be the favorites, but I trust coaching in moments like these. Sean McVay is more experienced and will be better prepared than Kliff Kingsbury will be, and it will get the Rams to the playoffs.
The Pick: Rams 24-21
Seahawks (-6.5) vs. 49ers
The Seahawks still have an outside shot at the NFC’s top seed. Russ has played great football the past few weeks and the defense has quietly become a much better unit in the second half of the season. The Niners showed last week that it is dumb to underestimate them. Robert Saleh is going to be a head coach somewhere next year, and this team will likely be contenders again next year when they get. Despite that, I like Seattle to close out the season strong and head into the playoffs on a bit of a run.
The Pick: Seahawks 27-21
Chargers (-3.5) vs. Chiefs
The only playoff team not playing for something tomorrow is Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes is getting a break, as will many key players on both sides of the ball. Chad Henne gets the ball against a Chargers team that’s finishing the season strong. Justin Herbert has balled out all year long, and with a matchup against mostly backups, I think he’ll keep Charger fans excited about what’s to come with a win over the division champs.
The Pick: Chargers 34-30
Saints (-5.5) vs. Panthers
Alvin Kamara’s positive Covid test has thinned out the running back group for New Orleans on Sunday. The entire group has been designated as close contacts, meaning that the Saints are practically without an entire skill position. In spite of this, I still like the Saints’ potential to grab a W to end the season. The potential for a double-QB backfield of Drew Brees and Taysom Hill seems likely, and that will be a lot of fun to watch unfold. Their defense is also still suiting up, and should pressure Teddy Bridgewater all day long. Carolina has been a tough out all season, but I can’t see them handing their division rivals a loss.
The Pick: Saints 30-26
Titans (-7.5) vs. Texans
The Titans didn’t exactly show up like I thought they were going to on Sunday night against Green Bay. Tennessee practically got beaten from the jump, and were never able to get Derrick Henry going. This leaves a lot hanging in the balance for them as we enter the final week. They still control their own destiny, and seem likely to nab the AFC’s 4th seed. However, this Houston team isn’t going to let the Titans walk all over them. These two groups played a wild game earlier in the year, and I expect this one to be similar. I do think the Titans will make enough plays to win, but I think this really could go either way.
The Pick: Titans 38-35
Sunday Night: Football Team (-3.5) vs. Eagles
The grand finale of the 2020-21 regular season will decide the NFC East. Washington controls their own destiny, but has not looked like a division champ at all in the past few weeks. Getting Alex Smith back should do wonders for this team. Even though Smith hasn’t put up huge numbers in his starts, it is clear that he just has a control over this offense that no other QB has had in Washington really since Kirk Cousins. The Eagles continue to get inspiring play from Jalen Hurts, but they have plenty of other issues to address this offseason to get back to contender status. Washington gets it done behind strong defensive play and smart football from Smith.
The Pick: Washington 22-17
*Our odds are provided by our friends at BUSR. If you want to get in on the action and place a bet today, head over to Busr.com/StudentUnionSports.
Award Predictions
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
I’ve finally been convinced. Over the past few weeks, Rodgers has simply been better than Patrick Mahomes. His numbers are more impressive, and he’ll further that divide with Mahomes sitting out this week. I really hope we get to see these two in the Super Bowl, because I think it would be a truly special matchup.
OPOTY: Travis Kelce
This one comes down to Kelce and Derrick Henry, in my opinion. Stefon Diggs has made a great case lately as well, but ultimately I think it has to be Kelce. This has been the greatest season we’ve ever seen from a tight end in the sport, and I don’t think Trav is slowing down anytime soon. He has become the safety net for the Chiefs whenever they need a conversion, and his consistency has been remarkable. Oh, and he’s a great dude.
DPOTY: TJ Watt
This one probably should be unanimous. All due respect to Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett, but Watt has been phenomenal this year. All three of these guys are generational talents; Watt has just been the best of them this season. TJ’s impact on a game is amazing to watch. He has evolved into such a disruptive edge rusher, and I think he’ll be rewarded with the hardware this year.
OROTY: Justin Herbert
Justin Jefferson has been fantastic for the Vikings, but this should not be a question. Herbert has had one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons we’ve ever seen. He looks like one of the league’s next great sensations, and should have the Chargers competitive for years to come.
DROTY: Chase Young
Another no-brainer. You can already tell that Young is going to dominate lineman for years to come. His first step was so electric at Ohio State, and that speed has translated to the NFL. Young can single-handedly wreck a game and Washington has a gem to anchor their defense for a long time.
Comeback POTY: Alex Smith
There’s no need to even explain this. Name the award after him.
Coach of the Year: Sean McDermott
This might be the most exciting award race this year. A ton of coaches deserve credit for what they’ve been able to do. There’s been newer coaches like Kevin Stefanski or Brian Flores implementing culture changes to their young teams. There are the vets like Andy Reid, Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin leading their teams to great heights as usual. You’ve also got guys like Matt LaFluer and Mike Vrabel who have made great cases. Ultimately though, I think it has to be McDermott. The Bills have been trending upwards, and they’ve elevated all the way to legitimate contender this year. Josh Allen’s development has obviously been huge in that transformation, but it can’t be possible without McDermott. He’s been an awesome coach for years, and it’s time he gets the recognition.
