Record: (2-4 Week 1, 4-4 Total)
Rough one last week ladies and gents. But to quote Omar Little portrayed by the late great Michael K. Williams: “When you come at the king, you best not miss”. I learned my lesson going against Bama who literally rolled the tide over on D’Eriq King and the Miami Hurricanes. Also, to make matters worse, my best bet (LSU -3) got steamrolled by Chip Kelly’s surging UCLA Bruins. Enough dwelling on the past, it’s time to get right this week, which I believe a couple of teams I’m following will be feeling the same way.
Before we get into it, just a quick reminder that all the games below can be bet at BUSR.com/StudentUnion!
Wisconsin (-25.5)
You better believe The Badgers are pissed off after last week’s upset loss at home to the Nittany Lions. Graham Mertz had a very bad outing with only 185 pass yards and 2 late INT’s to clinch defeat. Don’t expect the Badger passing attack to be this bad against Eastern Michigan. Wisconsin controlled the ball for over 40 minutes and it’s defense held Penn State to under 300 yards of total offense.
I see an angry Badgers team coming out and delivering a good old fashioned woodshed spanking to the Eagles. This defense is a major step down from Penn State and while the Eagles have a balanced offensive attack, expect the Badgers to shut them down and establish dominance early en route to a large victory. Lay it.
UNC (-25)
Two weeks in a row? This guy must be crazy. Yes, I’m going with North Carolina again this week. The Tar Heels got absolutely stuffed by Virginia Tech last week in Lane Stadium. I forgot how much I loved “Enter Sandman” until I heard the eruption in Blacksburg.
Sam Howell had too much difficulty breaking in his new weapons against a very underrated Hokie defense and made some extremely costly mistakes down the stretch. It just seemed like everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Heels and I expect them to clean up a lot of mistakes this week against Georgia State. Georgia State got ran out the stadium against Army’s Triple Option 43-10, so I expect the Tar Heels to flex their muscles at home. I see a similar result in the previous game I just spoke about. If you play it, lay it.
Iowa (+4.5)
College Gameday will make their way to Ames, Iowa this week to see the Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State snuck by Northern Iowa 16-10 in Week 1 as 29 point favorites, while Iowa took on 17th ranked Indiana and bent them over their knee 34-6. Knee jerk reaction says that wasn’t Iowa State’s best performance and was Northern Iowa’s super bowl, so the Cyclones didn’t take the game seriously.
Let me go on the record and say this game WILL be a dogfight. Brock Purdy is a stud and I am not judging his season based on one game. But Iowa’s performance last week was too impressive to ignore. Iowa is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have won the last 3 contests against rival Iowa State. Even worse, Iowa State has lost 5 of their last 6 contests at home against the Hawkeyes. Kirk Ferentz absolutely owns Matt Campbell and I get 4.5 points as a dog? I’ll take it. Give me the points and a lean to the under in what should be another slugfest in Ames.
North Carolina State (-2.5)
N.C. State impressively shut out USF 45-0 as 20 point favorites behind the legs of running back duo Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr. Mississippi St. was down 20 at home in the 4th quarter against LA Tech before pulling off an amazing comeback to squeak out a victory 35-34. If The Bulldogs think that lightning can strike twice, they better think again. The Wolfpack look like a very balanced team with stingy defense and a double spearheaded run game with an above average QB under center.
The Wolfpack are coming into Davis Wade Stadium boasting the 18th best offense against The Bulldogs 97th ranked defense, and are meeting for the first time in the regular season since 1940! N.C. State is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 while Miss. St. is 5-6 ATS in their last 11. While not much to go on with these 2, I expect State to come into Starkville and cover the 2.5.
Best Bet: Buffalo (+13.5)
Any chance I get to go against Scott Frost I’m taking it! Buffalo handled Wagner 69-7 led by their monstrous run attack and 231 yards through the air by Senior Kyle Vantrease. Nebraska defeated Fordham at home 52-7 and impressively gained 300 pass and rush yards in the contest.
A lot of Betsperts think Nebraska is going to clean house since it’s their 2nd in a row at home. But how motivated would you be to take on 2 mid major programs in a row? I don’t see Nebraska taking The Bulls seriously this week, so it’s a prime opportunity to take the dog and even a Saturday Sprinkle on the Money Line. (+425 at BUSR) Buffalo is 10-1 straight up, 9-2 ATS and 5-1 straight up on the road. Nebraska is 4-1 straight up against MAC opponents and 4-2 ATS. I expect Scott Frost’s hot seat to sizzle after this week, so ride the Buffalo Bulls to cover the 2 touchdowns and possibly the outright win.
Honorable Mention: Ball St./ Penn St. (Over 57.5)
More of a lean here, but I smell a shootout in this contest. Maybe more of a game of catch up, but plenty of points none the less. Ball State is a rising star in the MAC with an All-MAC star in QB Drew Plitt. The problem is this is not the MAC. Penn State did not have a great offensive showing in last week’s win vs. Wisconsin, so I expect James Franklin to tune up the band and let the boys play. I see Penn State covering the number, but Ball State answering with enough points to put this game over the total. (Projection: Penn St. 45- Ball St. 21)
Once again guys, thanks so much for reading if you got this far and best of luck if you tail. Let’s get back in the green this week!
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