Welcome back to another week of football. Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season gave us a little bit of everything. We saw some teams rise to the occasion and surprise us, while others (cough cough… the Packers) left a lot to be desired.
Week 2 gives us a chance to slow down on some overreactions that inevitably come with the season’s opening games. The sample size continues to grow, and we get to look at what carries over, and what appears to be a one time thing. Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at each game this week.
Last Week: 8-8 Straight Up, 7-9 ATS
Thursday Night: Giants at Football Team (-3.5)
These are the Thursday night games we live for. After starting the season off with a bang, TNF finally gets back to its roots with an uninspiring, gritty divisional matchup. I don’t anticipate a lot of points in this one. New York struggled to get it going against Denver on Sunday, and faces another sharp defense here. Washington is now down Ryan Fitzpatrick, and will need the Taylor Heinicke from last year’s playoffs to re-emerge to stay competitive.
The Pick: Washington 20-13
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Raiders at Steelers (-5.5)
Both of these teams emerged victorious last week in games that they weren’t favored in. Pittsburgh leaned on their top-notch defense to stifle Josh Allen and the Bills all game long. Vegas, meanwhile, pulled out a W in the early candidate for “Weirdest Game of the Season.” The Raiders went back and forth with Baltimore all night, concluding in a wild overtime period that could’ve been won about three different times. I can’t see the Steelers defense letting up in the Heinz field opener.
The Pick: Steelers 27-20
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Bengals at Bears (-3)
The LSU connection was in full swing for Cincy on Sunday. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase picked up right where they left off at school, connecting for a big score and leading the Bengals to an upset over the Vikings. Burrow made very few mistakes and played a smart game, while also allowing Joe Mixon to wear out the Minnesota defense. The Bears, on the other hand, struggled. Chicago ran into the buzzsaw that was Matt Stafford’s first game in LA. The Justin Fields usage felt odd. If he’s going to be in specialty packages, why not try him out a little bit more? Until the Bears figure out the QB situation, I don’t see them winning many games.
The Pick: Bengals 24-21
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Texans at Browns (-12.5)
Despite Cleveland losing, both of these teams emerge from week 1 as big risers in my eyes. Many perceived the Texans to be the worst team in football heading into the season. Tyrod Taylor responded by smacking the Jaguars for 60 minutes. Sure, Jacksonville isn’t top tier either, but not many expected Houston to win. Cleveland, meanwhile, went toe-to-toe with the class of the AFC in their home stadium. For a while, the Browns controlled the Chiefs. This is a team that will seriously contend this season. I like the Browns in this one by a fair margin.
The Pick: Browns 34-24
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Rams (-4) at Colts
The highest risers of the week have to be the Rams. Sunday night was everything we could’ve hoped for and more from the Stafford/McVay duo. Matt Stafford shined in his new system in LA, and the deep ball was working to perfection. The Colts ran into a tough first opponent in Seattle. I still think they will contend for the AFC South title, but boy, they aren’t opening with any softies.
The Pick: Rams 27-23
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Bills (-3.5) at Dolphins
When I look at all of the matchups this week, this one feels like the most important. It’s hard to say that a team needs a win so early in the season, but Buffalo might need this win. Dropping to 0-2 with a direct loss to Miami digs the Bills into a hole, and they face a 1st place schedule this season. Neither of these two offenses really got it going in week 1. I expect that to change over the course of the season, especially for the Bills. Josh Allen rights the ship in Miami.
The Pick: Bills 31-24
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Patriots (-5.5) at Jets
The Pats were a red zone fumble away from opening the season with a win. Losses like that really sting, especially for Bill Belichick. The Jets took a while to get going against Carolina, but the Corey Davis/Zach Wilson connection eventually got rolling. The Jets will not be pushovers this season. If this game were later in the year, I’d like New York, but they’re catching the Pats at a bad time.
The Pick: Patriots 23-17
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49ers (-3.5) at Eagles
How about the Birds? Jalen Hurts dominated the Atlanta Falcons, and the Eagles coasted to one of the biggest wins of week 1. Atlanta didn’t show many signs of life, but Philly operated at a high level from start to finish. The 49ers nearly completed what would have been one of the biggest chokes in recent memory. San Francisco was in complete control of Detroit, until they weren’t. A ferocious comeback from the Lions fell just short, and the Niners were able to escape. I still have questions about the 49ers QB situation, as well as what’s up with Brandon Aiyuk. For those reasons, I’ll roll with the Eagles once again for an upset at The Linc.
The Pick: Eagles 31-28
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Saints (-3.5) at Panthers
We’ll learn a lot about the Panthers this Sunday. Carolina controlled the Jets, but the offense wasn’t rolling as I expected it might. Meanwhile, they face the team with probably the most confidence in the league. The Saints just steamrolled the Packers, and Jameis Winston was nearly flawless. Sam Darnold needs to take care of the ball for Carolina to have a shot in this one.
The Pick: Panthers 28-25
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Broncos (-6) at Jaguars
Denver took care of the Giants last week, and now they’ll head to Florida to take on the Jags. Jacksonville looked like one of the league’s worst teams against Houston, and I’m not sure they’ll right the ship against the Broncos. Denver has one of the toughest defenses in the league, and Trevor Lawrence can’t make as many mistakes as he made last week if the Jags want to have a chance.
The Pick: Broncos 30-20
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Vikings at Cardinals (-3.5)
The Cardinals are another big winner from week 1. Kyler Murray shined on the offensive end, while Chandler Jones wrecked havoc on the defensive side. Arizona dominated Tennessee from the jump. The Vikings dropped an OT thriller at Cincinnati. I think the Bengals are a little better than people realize, but it’s still probably a game this team should’ve won. The Minnesota D has their hands full this week with Murray and Co.
The Pick: Cardinals 38-27
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Falcons at Bucs (-11.5)
The Falcons head down to Tampa after being dismantled by Philly. Not the best reward for a team looking to bounce back from a tough loss. Tom Brady had it rolling in the Thursday night opener. When he got the ball last, it felt like everybody knew what was going to happen. It appears Father Time will have to wait another year with this guy.
The Pick: Bucs 38-20
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Cowboys at Chargers (-2.5)
One of the better matchups of the week goes down in LA. The Cowboys lost a thriller to open the season, but proved that their offense is a legitimate top 5 unit. The Chargers weren’t special in their victory at Washington, but they got it done. Justin Herbert really had it going on with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. If both of them have big years, look out. I think Herbert has a big one against an average Dallas D.
The Pick: Chargers 30-27
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Titans at Seahawks (-4.5)
You can’t draw up much more of a rough start for the Titans. They were dominated on their home field for an entire game, and now they head to Seattle to play another contender in a LOUD stadium. Russ and Tyler Lockett were in full swing against Indy, and that will open up a lot for the rest of their offense when defenses have to be wary of their connection. The Seahawks typically come racing out of the gates, and I think that’s bad news for Tennessee.
The Pick: Seahawks 28-24
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Sunday Night: Chiefs (-3.5) at Ravens
If you watched even a little bit of the Chiefs/Browns game, then you probably saw at least one absurd Patrick Mahomes statistic. I’ll focus today on his career September numbers. He’s thrown as many INTs in the month of September as the amount of games he’s lost in that month. That would be 0 of each. This surely won’t last forever, but it’s pretty remarkable how well Mahomes kicks off each season. Baltimore dropped a golden opportunity to open the season with wins. Early on, they also look like the team getting hit the hardest by the injury bug. It’s tempting to think this is the year Lamar breaks through against KC, but for now, I simply can’t bet against Mahomes in September.
The Pick: Chiefs 35-31
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Monday Night: Lions at Packers (-11.5)
One of these teams showed a lot of heart after falling behind big time last week. The other team was the Packers. Aaron Rodgers simply looked disinterested against the Saints, and the defense didn’t put up much of a fight either. No one is really giving the Lions much of a chance this season, which is why it was awesome to see them fight back against the 49ers. Jared Goff and TJ Hockenson found instant chemistry. I’d love to say the fighting Lions make this a game, but I just can’t see the Packers rolling over for their home opener on MNF.
The Pick: Packers 34-24
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MVP Race:
*It’s important to note this early in the season that these rankings reflect who I believe would win the award if it was handed out TODAY. Rather than say who I think will have it by the end of the year, this is simply a recognition of who shined brightest last week, and positioned themselves as early candidates.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Murray was fantastic against the Titans. He dazzled with his arm and his legs, and made plays that only guys with his speed and athleticism can make. If he keeps winning games, expect him to hang around this list for a while.
- Matt Stafford (QB- LAR): Stafford’s first game as a Ram went according to plan. Posting a nearly perfect passer rating of 156.1, Stafford literally made 0 mistakes. He looked happier than ever, and could be in line for a career year.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB- KC): Including Mahomes on this list has become a formality at this point. 3 passing TDs, a rushing TD, and 337 yards with 0 picks will do that though. Mahomes’ ability to calmly make big plays when his team falls behind is special.
- Jameis Winston (QB- NO): You’re darn right he’s on this list. Winston didn’t throw for too many yards, but he played the most efficient game of the week. 5 TDs on 14 competitions is nearly unheard of. The best part? No INTs for a guy who’s been plagued by them most of his career.
- Russell Wilson (QB- SEA): This was a toss-up between Russ and Tom Brady. Consider it a 5A-5B situation. Russ played a little bit of a cleaner game against a tougher defense, so we’ll give him the edge for now. Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater also deserve some recognition for their week 1 performances.