(Week 4: 3-4, Total: 11-10)
It was the day of the dogs last week in CFB, with a handful of upsets including the Mighty Clemson Tigers! It wasn’t the greatest week for me in NCAA as I ended up in the Red with a few bad beats and bad bets. I can officially say I was wrong about the King train in Miami as they have completely faceplanted this season out the gate. But one of the great things about the football season is every week we can learn more about the teams we follow and where the value lies. Let’s dig into this weeks picks!
Kent State (-15.5)
Man have I been waiting for The Golden Flashes to start Conference play because they have absolutely been through the ringer. To start the season off against Texas A&M, then follow with Iowa and Maryland is the definition of cutting your teeth in the NCAA. Bowling Green is coming off one of the biggest upsets in their program history by knocking off Minnesota as 30 point dogs!
Kudos to BG, but I can see some possible hangover potential here coming off the highest of highs, then having to go to Dix Stadium to take on the patented “Flash Fast” offense. Kent State has been waiting to see a step down in competition to sharpen their axe and with the competition that they have already faced, they are more than capable of laying this number. The Flashes are still beating The Falcons in P/Yds per game (7.6-5.7) and R/Yds per game (4.9-1.9). I see Kent taking out a lot of their frustration on BG and starting off Conference play with a win and a solid cover to set the tone.
BET THE GAME HERE AT BUSR.com/StudentUnion
Arkansas (+18.5)
Arkansas is the poster child for this years Cinderella team. They were not considered as a powerhouse in the SEC, but this team led by their voracious leader Sam Pittman has overcome the odds this year. The beloved coach has led the Razorbacks to a 4-0 record and 4-0 ATS. Meanwhile Kirby Smart sees that this can be the year his team can be in the driver seat to make it to the national title game.
I personally believe that The Bulldogs are the more talented and even better coached team, but their is something about The Hogs that you want to bet on. They have consistently covered the numbers and even won outright (see last weeks performance against A&M). Arkansas does not have a great pass offense with KJ Jefferson completing less than 60% on only 78 attempts and Georgia is 33rd in FBS with 277.3 pass yards per game. If Georgia can jump out to an early double digit lead, it may be too much for the hogs to keep up with, hence the large number.
There is something to be had about momentum and this Razorbacks team oozes it. I damn sure won’t stand in its way, and I am putting my money on Ark to make this a game, therefore, covering this number. I put my faith (and wallet) behind Pittman and this potential Natty dark horse.
BET THE GAME HERE AT BUSR.com/StudentUnion
Louisville/Wake Forest (Over 61)
One of my bad beats of last weekend was the Louisville/Florida State total set at 61 and finishing at 54 after the FSU score to start the second half was the last TD scored in the game. Wake Forest has become the dark horse candidate to take home the ACC crown after a fantastic win last week vs a feisty Virginia team. Sam Hartman has established himself as a frontrunner for The Heisman and this game can absolutely establish himself further into that category.
Louisville can score it anytime they want. Led by Malik “Lamar-Lite” Cunningham (thank you Tony Mejia), this Cardinals attack is averaging 31.8 PPG (54th in FBS) vs Wake’s 38.8 PPG (20th in FBS). The Over in this matchup has gone 4-1 in its L5 and I see no reason why it can’t get another one. Expect points in bunches and a really fun game to watch!
BET THE GAME HERE AT BUSR.com/StudentUnion
Air Force/New Mexico (Under 46.5)
Since been bet up from 45, this matchup should churn the clock as Air Force’s triple option attack will consume a lot of time to drive down the field, which plays in favor to a lower score. What stands in their way is New Mexico’s Defensive Coordinator and former HC Rocky Long, who is a mastermind at stopping the option. The Falcon’s have gone 12-2 to the UNDER as favorites and 6-1 in their last 7.
New Mexico is heading in the right direction, but not lighting up the scoreboards (18.5 PPG). I expect Air Force to have some lengthy, but stalled drives and not much Offense from NM to cash the ticket UNDER the total.
BET THE GAME HERE AT BUSR.com/StudentUnion
Western Kentucky (+11)
If you watched College Football last week, you saw that there were a lot of teams that won that you wouldn’t have imagined winning. Michigan State has been a pleasant surprise this season starting 4-0 and becoming the 17th ranked team in the nation. They beat a previously ranked Miami team and a dogfight at home to Nebraska last week. Now comes a 1-2 Conference USA team coming to their house that they just have to show up to win. Easy enough right?
What they might overlook is that this WKU team is 14th in the nation in PPG and YPG (41.7, 507.3). Led by Senior signal caller Bailey Zappe, this Hilltoppers team is deadly on offense and can go toe-to-toe with this Spartans defense this weekend, who could be starting to read their own newspaper clippings about how good they are. A terrible spot for Michigan St., they better bring their A game because this Houston Baptist overhauled team plays fast and furious and if given the chance, will drop 7 at will. I see this being the possible upset of the week considering the offensive motor WKU has, so I am taking the 11 and even putting a little Saturday Sprinkle on the Money Line (+325 at BUSR).
BET THE GAME HERE AT BUSR.com/StudentUnion
A Little Lagniappe
I just want to say we are already a third of the way through the College Football season and it has been a blast being able to talk sports and wagering with you all and I hope the information I have given you is useful. We are approaching mid-season and I truly feel this is where we start to see things a lot more clearly and teams for who they are. I am currently 1st in the Student Union Standings and plan to provide even more winners, so I hope you will tune in.
Follow me or Fade me, I just hope that you can cash those tickets and find value in our information and site overall! Ok for a few little nuggets of value:
- Auburn has failed to cover in 5 straight games as an underdog, and 0-4 as a dog on the road
- The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tiger Stadium
- The UNDER has cashed in 6 of BYU’s Last 7
- BYU is 4-1 SU in their Last 5 on the road
- Utah State is 2-5 ATS in their Last 7 at Home