For those of you that are followers of The Campus Cover podcast, you will know that we have some rules. There is one commandment in particular that is extremely important in college sports. We talked about it in our Pilot episode briefly, and throughout the season at length. On my official list, it is three, but for this week, it should be number one.
Thou shalt be wary of home underdogs in conference games!
Of course, like anyone that was raised as a good Catholic boy or girl, commandments are often broken. Cody and I know this very well, and generally when you break the commandment, the god of college football reigns down from the heavens and takes your money.
This week, there are many, many options to watch out for this extremely important commandment. So be extremely careful when betting on these games.
Indiana +7.5 against Michigan.
So supposedly, Jim Harbaugh is a bad coach, according to Ventura. I have been saying for a while now that Michigan as a football team kinda sucks. They play into my theory that Wisconsin is a playoff team (I won’t get into that right now), and they are the third-best team in the Big Ten East. They will still probably win this game, but I was all over this game when Indiana was only getting 7 at the opening of the line. Now, I really like this line. It’s going to be low-scoring and boring like all of Michigan’s games, but I think it won’t get too out of hand for the Hoosiers.
Duke +7 against Florida State
For some reason, I have been all over the Blue Devils all year. They have actually made me a reasonable amount of money this year, going 4-2 against the spread. This week, they are playing a Florida State team that is reeling from the loss of their preseason hype. No one is going to move the ball in this game. This game is going to suck. These teams are both extremely average and their defenses are far better than their offenses. Duke might gain like 6 yards the entire game. Still, I believe they can cover that 7 with relative ease, on the losing end of a 10-7 score line or something.
Maryland +3 against Northwestern
This is another line that has moved, but in the opposite direction. The public seems to be following the commandment on this one, betting Maryland’s line down from 3.5 to 3. Northwestern has been painfully average all season long despite the preseason hype they were getting, and Maryland has shown flashes of a pretty decent football team. I think they are going to win this game outright, so if you want the +150 then win your extra money. But, if you aren’t a greedy bastard and you like the simple thrill of winning a bet, then take the points on this lock.
Texas +8 against Oklahoma
I know what you’re thinking. “Woah, PJ, slow your roll, big man. You don’t think Texas is back, right? Do you?” To that, I can give you a solid no, like I said here. Now you’re thinking, “But PJ, Oklahoma just lost a game to Iowa State! Don’t you think they are going to score like 75,000 points this week? Isn’t Baker Mayfield going to shoot molten lava out of his eyes and turn the defense into the victims of the ancient Pompeii volcano eruption?” I really want to think so. I have been very vocal about my unconditional love of Baker Mayfield. But, Tom Herman’s tenure thus far has been characterized by a Texas team that has looked better each and every week on both sides of the ball. Also, Oklahoma looked like they were hungover during their game against the Cyclones. They were disinterested and lazy on defense. Hook ’em.
UAB +5 against Middle Tennessee State
I am the driver of the UAB bandwagon. I have said it over and over and over again. If you follow El Pollo’s picks, I have established I am picking them every week for the whole year. They wear jerseys with the names of kids with cancer on the back. Paralyzed men walk because of them. They win as 11 point underdogs. This is the best football team in the country and I will not hear otherwise. Unfortunately for you, I got this like at UAB +6.5. Now, the line has been bet down to +5 because all of America is jumping on the bandwagon I have been driving for 4 weeks now. Go Blazers. And listen to The Campus Cover, official podcast of the UAB Blazers.
