With the NFL regular season concluding teams have begun the more darkest stage of the off-season, firing coaches and executives, if they haven’t already.
So far the Jaguars, Falcons, Jets, Chargers, Lions, and Texans are all in search for a new head coach.
So which teams has the most to offer? Which team will draw the most interest? Who should each team hire?
Best To Worst Openings
1. Atlanta Falcons
Draft Picks: Rounds 1-6 (Own)
Cap Space (according to Spotrac): -$24.7 million
Key Pieces & Draft Picks: 4th overall pick, Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett, Keanu Neal (Pending UFA)
Overview
I am sure people would have the Jets and Jaguars on here. But as I have noted in the past articles, those places are not as highly desired as one might think. Even though Atlanta does not possess a lot cap space or draft capital they can easily improve on both fronts if they wanted to. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Jake Matthews aren’t getting any younger. However, if you wanted to go in a direction where you want to compete right away then you certainly have some of those pieces. That’s where the desirability comes in. Having the option to keep Ryan and Jones in order to compete next year, or trading them and building draft capital that also gives you a lot of cap relief.
Then they can use the 4th pick to fit the direction the teams wants to go in. Want to win now? Try to fill out the defense by getting Surtain or Parsons. Want to start over? Trade Ryan, Matthews, and Jones. Then draft QB, WR, and LT in the first couple of rounds.
Who would I hire? I would probably go with 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. This past seasons work might be his most impressive. With no continuity and without a lot of his key guys he still found a way to put a respectable defense together. That says more to me than what the defense did last year when everyone was healthy. That’s the kind of coach this team needs.
2. Houston Texans
Draft Picks: Rounds 3-7 (Own), 4th (via Ari), 6th (via Mia), and 6th (via NO)
Cap Space: -$16.4 million
Key Pieces & Draft Picks: Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, JJ Watt, Larmey Tunsil, David Johnson, Zach Cunningham, Whitney Mercilus, Will Fuller (Pending UFA)
Overview
The Texans have a lot of backtracking to do in order to get this ship back on the right track. However they can handle this in a couple of different ways. They can either try to compete right away or they can go with the rebuild. It would probably be a lot easier to compete for the long-term if they took a few steps back in regards to the roster and try to build a competitive team in 2022. This approach would probably include releasing JJ Watt, Brandin Cooks, and Duke Johnson–which would clear about $35 million in cap space with no penalties. It would also include trading guys like David Johnson, Randall Cobb, and Whitney Mercilus.
Then they need to make a decision on if they should Fuller walk or not. That would depend on whether they value the compensatory pick they would get for him more than his actual services. However, I say they should re-sign him.
Who would I hire? I think Raheem Morris would be a good pairing with this team. It makes hiring defensive-oriented coaches easier when you have your quarterback and left tackle of the future already locked up for at least three more seasons. The defense is obviously in much worse shape and allowing Morris some time to build the defense the way he sees fit could be more beneficial down the road, rather than rushing to win immediately
3. Los Angeles Chargers
Draft Picks: Rounds 1-7 (Own), 6th (via Ten)
Cap Space: $22.0 million
Key Pieces & Draft Picks: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Kenneth Murray, Derwin James, Joey Bosa, Austin Ekler, Melvin Ingram (Pending UFA), Hunter Henry (Pending UFA), 13th overall pick
Overview
The Chargers for the last few years have underperformed given the talent they have on paper. A lot seem to believe Anthony Lynn was the reason behind it, hence why they are on this list. So, if you’re a coach looking for a team that doesn’t really need that much to improve on, the the Chargers are it. However, the window with a good chunk of the current corps is closing. Casey Hayward, Melvin Ingram, Linval Joesph, Chris Harris Jr, Bryan Bulaga, and Mike Pouncey (Pending UFA) are all at least 30.
If the Chargers do want to get a bit younger they won’t have to make some drastic overhauls. But it will be in some key positions like the offensive and defensive line, as well as the secondary.
The reason they are a bit lower despite having the least amount of work to do is because of ownership. Dean Spanos being a cheapskate has been well documented. So, the question being, is he willing to pay for a top coach? Or if does pay for a top coach will he spend money to get that coach the necessary resources in order to be successful? These questions could definitely scare a few candidates who would be interested in the job.
Nevertheless, if I were the Chargers I would probably go with Eric Bieniemy. I have been back and forth with whether or not I think Bieniemy would make a good head coach. But I think it with what little he has to do as far as roster improvements–at least on offense–he would be very successful early on. It would be more about setting a winning culture and getting the talent on the team to play consistently for 60 minutes every week. Plus, inside information on your old team who just happens to be a division rival.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Draft Picks: Rounds 1-5 & 7 (Own), 1st (via LAR), 2nd (via Min), 4th (via LAR), 5th (via Cle), and 7th (via Ten)
Cap Space: $77.3 million
Key Pieces & Draft Picks: 1st overall pick, 21st (projected) overall pick, Myles Jack, DJ Chark, James Robinson, Brandon Linder, Josh Allen, K’Lavon Chaisson, CJ Henderson
Overview
Obviously a lot of people will scoff at me putting a team with four picks in the first two rounds and $77 million in cap space 4th on a list of desirability. And on the surface this is very enticing.
However, there is always more behind close doors that effects peoples decision around the league. Shad Khan–the Jaguars owner–has been viewed as a not so good owner and can’t seem to control his son from creating a twitter feud with former Jaguar Yannick Ngakoue. Ronnie Harrison said he was happy that he was with a team that only had one goal and that was winning. Players from the NFLPA had warned soon-to-be free agents to stay away from Jacksonville because of Tom Coughlin. All of this has happened in the last year. Clearly there’s dysfunction at the top. So, despite having cap space and the top pick it would be hard to see a top candidate wanting to go to Jacksonville.
As for the Urban Meyer rumors, I am sure there is legitimacy behind those. However, seeing what I have seen from this franchise over the last year, I find it hard that Urban will come out of retirement for this job barring a kings ransom. There has yet to be any reports that he is interviewing for the job.
Who would I hire? Arthur Smith. Why? Because he really might the best guy who would want the job. They are reportedly interviewing Eric Bieniemy and Raheem Morris, but I strongly believe those guys will get a better job with different teams.
5. New York Jets
Draft Picks: Rounds 1-5 (Own), 1st (via Sea), 3rd (via Sea), 5th (via NYG), 6th (via NE)
Cap Space: $68.7 million
Key Pieces & Draft Picks: Mekhi Becton, Denzel Mims, Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosely, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman (Pending UFA), Marcus Maye (Pending UFA), Brian Poole (Pending UFA), 2nd overall pick, 27th (projected) overall pick
Overview
Much like the Jaguars, culturally they are a wreck. Except with the Jets, they have slightly less cap space, slightly worse first round picks, a young corps that isn’t as talented, and are in a division where the Dolphins and Bills are young and still improving, as well as still having Belichick for at least three more years. It will be a tough climb up for the Jets.
One advantage the Jets do have is their general manager, Joe Douglas, seems to have an eye for the draft. Their rookie class seemed promising. However, they will more than likely not be a top free agent destination. So they will really have to rely on the draft to make themselves a competitive team again.
Who would I hire? I would go with Pat Fitzgerald. With more than likely having another roster that would rank towards the bottom of the league, it would be smart to get a culture coach like Fitzgerald who can get a team to play greater than the sum of it’s part.
6. Detroit Lions
Draft Picks: Rounds 1-5 (Own)
Cap Space: $10.5 million
Key Pieces & Draft Picks: Matthew Stafford, TJ Hockenson, Jeffery Okudah, Frank Ragnow, Taylor Decker, Jamie Collins, Desmond Trufant, D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones Jr (Pending UFA), Kenny Golladay (Pending UFA), Adrian Peterson (Pending UFA), 7th overall pick
Overview
Not a lot of cap space. Not a top destination. Only five draft picks at the moment. Culture problem. They have talent, but it’s aging talent. I think we are past the point where we can convince ourselves that this team can compete for a playoff spot with what’s currently on the team. Because the best players under contract are only going to get worse because they are older. There isn’t much young talent to where you can shed the veterans and just let the young guys grow. And their best free agent is about to get a paid day that the Lions can simply not match unless they make some roster moves, essentially filling one need, but creating another.
So this is going to be a full tear-down and subsequent rebuild. Unless ownership wants to continue to lie to themselves.
Who would I hire? I can’t really find a great fit for this team. In reality, it is going to be a guy, where he knows it is going to be a working progress. That they won’t win right away. If ownership can find a guy who is ok with that and will give him plenty of time to build the time in his own way then I am sure someone will emerge. Maybe not the biggest name, but somebody.