Late Monday night, the Chicago White Sox made the biggest splash of the offseason so far, acquiring Lance Lynn in a trade with the Texas Rangers. In return, Texas received Chicago’s #5 prospect, right-hander Dane Dunning, as well as Avery Weems (a left-handed pitcher who the Sox selected in the 6th round in 2019).
Lynn has enjoyed a bit of a career resurgence since joining the Rangers in 2019. In 46 starts across the last two years, he has posted a 3.57 ERA, as well as a combined bWAR of 9.7. In addition, Lynn finished in the top 6 in AL Cy Young in both 2018 and 2019.
He will join an already strong White Sox rotation that includes Lucas Giolito (3.43 ERA since 2019), and Dallas Keuchel (1.99 ERA with Chicago last year). They also have 23-year-old Dylan Cease, and anticipate the return of #2 prospect Michael Kopech next season. The team is also high on young right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. Suffice to say, the pitching situation on the South Side is looking pretty good.
A Surprising Return?
The return for Texas seemed to shock some people. Dunning was one of the Sox’s top prospects and impressed during his call-up last season. He posted an ERA of 3.97 (and a FIP of 3.99) across 7 starts.
However, the White Sox believe they are contenders now, and clearly do not want to waste any bit of their possible championship window. While their rotation was solid during 2019, another veteran arm could have put the team over the edge, or at least given them the upper hand in the Wild Card Series against Oakland. In the decisive Game 3, Dunning started on the mound and only lasted for 4 batters. The Sox ended up utilizing 9 different pitchers. They combined to allow 9 walks and 6 runs in the loss.
A pitcher like Lynn provides not only top-of-the-rotation stuff but also a veteran presence with plenty of postseason experience. Lynn has appeared in 26 playoff games (7 starts) dating back to 2011 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Incidentally, his manager that season was Tony La Russa, who will be his new manager in Chicago.
A playoff rotation of Giolito, Lynn, and Keuchel could potentially compete with any team in baseball, especially considering Chicago’s young, explosive lineup.
Lynn will be a free agent at the end of the 2021 campaign, so the overall outlook of this trade will likely depend on several factors: the White Sox’ results in 2021, Lynn’s destination for 2022 and beyond, or the evolution of Dane Dunning’s career.
From the Other Side
This is a very exciting trade for Chicago, but make no mistake, Rangers fans certainly have reason to be excited as well. As previously mentioned, Dunning had a great showing across seven starts in his first taste of the majors last season. He originally came to the South Side in a trade with the Washington Nationals. Dunning, along with Giolito and Lopez, for outfielder Adam Eaton.
The Rangers have missed the playoffs in four consecutive seasons and seemingly could not discover their franchise identity for a long time. While this trade undoubtedly makes the team less competitive in the short-term, Dunning projects to be a consistent middle-of-the-rotation starter. His impressive 2020 was a perfect start. Texas, finally, appears to be leaning more into the idea of a rebuild.
Not Done Yet?
The White Sox reportedly will not be satisfied with the acquisition of solely Lynn. The team is reportedly looking into acquiring more bullpen help, and have also been linked to outfielders such as Joc Pederson, and Michael Brantley.
If one thing is certain, it is that Chicago means business heading into 2021.