There have been numerous people across the nation crowning this Alabama Crimson Tide football team as one of the best to ever grace the college football gridiron. Watching a lot of Alabama down the stretch myself, I have come to realize that they are not actually as good as many believe. In all honesty, this is in no way trashing their defense as they very well may be the best unit we’ve ever seen, but I would rather make the case that this Bama offense is far below average and was helped by an overrated schedule.
It is no secret that the SEC was pretty much trash this year. Many teams in the SEC had inflated AP and CFP rankings just for the fact that they were the second best team in the league at that point. This was the case when Bama beat #19 Ole Miss, #16 Arkansas, #9 Tennessee, and #6 Texas A&M. The reality was that none of these teams finished the regular season better than 8-4 and Ole Miss didn’t even make a bowl game. Bama was over inflated early due to these seemingly impressive wins.
Jalen Hurts has been looked at as one of the next great college QBs all year for the mere fact that he is a freshman and has “lead” Bama to a 14-0 record. The reality is that Hurts has only faced 6 top 50 defenses and in these games he is 76 for 125 with 870 yards, 7 TDs and 6 INTs. That means his average game against those teams is 145 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Not exactly the numbers of a world beater, especially when compared against Deshaun Watson for Clemson who has played ten games against top 50 defenses, averaging 297 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. Clemson had a top ten defense in the country this year, to go along with their top ten offense, and I think that will show on Monday.
Another “weakness” of Bama has been no true #1 WR. This is the first year since 2013 that Alabama has had no 1,000-yard receiver. Don’t get me wrong, Stewart and Ridley are talented, but it is Clemson who I believe to have the most talented corps of receivers in the country. Mike Williams is the type of long, athletic receiver who could give the Crimson Tide secondary defense fits, along with tight end Jordan Leggett who will test the coverage skills of the Alabama linebackers.
Lastly, Bama has struggled this year on third down. In their six games against top 50 defenses, their offense has only converted 42.5% of their third downs, which would be good for about 45th in the country this season. Meanwhile, Clemson had the #5 defense in the country this season on third downs. I think this factor will prove big as the more possessions Clemson gets, the more likely it is that Deshaun Watson can score.
All of these factors, combined with the fact that Steve Sarkisian will be serving as offensive coordinator for the first time for this team, makes me feel like Clemson has an upper hand here. My official prediction will be Clemson getting revenge in the national championship behind a 31-23 win.
