To outside viewers, seeing the Cincinnati Bearcats in the top 10 brings up two things: 1) memories of the old Huggins teams that were consistently ranked in the late 90’s and early 2000’s or 2) a mid-major team that hasn’t played anybody and doesn’t deserve a top 10 ranking. These arguments have kind of bothered me all season (full disclosure: I am a Cincinnati student who is going to try to keep as much bias as possible out of this article). But hey, being the underdog is always kind of fun, isn’t it? Let me show you why my beloved Bearcats may just be having their best season since the Kenyon Martin years.
1. Starting lineup and depth
One of the biggest strengths of this Cincinnati team is the firepower the starting lineup brings, but they also have more depth than most would think. Strong depth serves teams well in the tournament and should do the same for UC. Outside of their strong starting lineup (4 guys averaging over 10 ppg, 3 likely All-AAC players), Cronin has the luxury of a former All-American coming off the bench (Cane Broome, transfer from Sacred Heart where he averaged 23.1 ppg). He also has a slew of other impact players off the bench, with a usual rotation of 10 to 11 players (freshman C Eliel Nsoseme is a raw defensive specialist who comes in when they need some extra size). That is a lot of players to give you production and if someone has a night off offensively, you can be sure one of the other 9 players will pick up the slack.
2. Defense, defense, and more defense
If it weren’t for Virginia, Cincinnati would be gaining many more headlines this season. Why, you ask? Cincinnati is currently breaking the Kenpom record for adjusted defensive efficiency, which has been around since the 2002 season. The problem is that Virginia is breaking the record by EVEN MORE. Think about that, there are two defenses this year that can safely be considered the best in the last decade and a half. So while the Bearcats may not get to hold the record, this defense is rock solid, nonetheless. They have given up 60 points or less in 9 of the last 10 games (the 1 that was over 60 was a whopping 62 points in a blowout win). UC is 2nd in ppg against (56.2), 13th in the country in rebounding, 23rd in steals, and 17th in blocks. There are not many holes in this defense and it has come to play every game this season.
3. “But you play such a weak schedule in a weak conference!”
This always annoys me. There have been plenty of teams from small conferences (VCU, Wichita State, George Mason, Butler) who had successful runs in the tournament. But besides that point, Cincinnati’s schedule may not be as bad as you think by selection committee standards. With the new emphasis on the quadrant system, the resume for them looks good with all of the road wins they have had. The Cats have five Quadrant 1 wins and their only two losses of the season have come in Quadrant 1 games. For reference, the Virginia team that just won at Duke has six, while the #1 team in the country Villanova currently has five, as well. As for the conference being down, about half of the conference is in the top 100 (6) and most bracketology has four tournament teams coming out. While this may not be as good as the traditional Power 5, it is much closer to that than the mid-major category.
4. Gary Clark is a problem
Man, this may be where my bias is showing, but I can not believe how underrated Gary Clark is sometimes. Dubbed by Jon Rothstein as “a Problem”, Gary Clark has been putting up some numbers in his final season. He has been one of the best and most consistent players in the AAC for the past few years, but took off this year and is still getting better. Enjoy these eye-popping numbers from Gary Clark:
- 1st this season and in AAC history in offensive, defensive, total rebounds, and average rebounds per game
- 1st in the AAC and 8th in the NCAA in PER
- 1st in the AAC and NCAA in defensive rating and defensive win shares
- 1st in the AAC and 6th in NCAA in offensive rating
- 3rd in the NCAA in win shares (1st per 40 minutes)
- 2nd in the NCAA in box plus/minus
Those are some unbelievable numbers. On the point of being underrated, this man was not even voted as a preseason first-team all conference. It did not make sense then and it makes even less sense now. I trust the conference will get it right in the postseason voting.
5. Let’s look at some numbers…
Kenpom- #6 (Offense: 60, Defense: 2)
BPI- #6
Strength of record- #11
Sagarin- #7
KPI- #12
RPI- #16
Average: 10.0, good for #7 in the country
I’ll let those numbers speak for themselves on this one.
6. History
I feel like the history of Cincinnati basketball is not appreciated enough in college basketball. The program got ranked as the #10 program in AP Poll history. They are #7 in amount of times being #1. Six final fours (sorry Xavier fans). Two national championships. 30 All-Americans. 3 Player of the Year awards. Going on eight consecutive March Madness appearances. This program has been through the ropes and has seen success, regardless of a few years of early exits in the tournament. This is the best team Cronin has had (but for real this time!) and they will be looking to cause some damage this year.
The Counter Argument
In order to make this as unbiased as possible, here is my counter argument on what could be the downfall of this team. Outside of the occasional slow start this team has had, this biggest problem seems to be the point guards. As a fan, I am not too worried about this yet. However, Cane Broome has been struggling a little with scoring and turnovers off the bench, and Justin Jenifer has not taken that leap some expected as the starting PG (to be fair, he has taken care of the ball so he is more ineffective than troublesome). In order for the Cats to book a ticket to San Antonio, one or both of these guys are going to need to step up and be a little more consistent. After all, Bearcat fans have been spoiled with Troy Caupain at that position for the last few years.