After a slow 3-2 start the Big 10 play, Wisconsin found itself on the outside looking in for a Big 10 West championship. Since the conference split into East and West divisions, the Badgers had won the West division three out of five years. Northwestern shocked many by capturing the West title in 2018. But now at 6-2 in conference play, Wisconsin has a chance to go back to Indy with a win over Minnesota, a team that has become somewhat of a national darling.
The Gophers will have home-field advantage on Saturday afternoon and College Gameday will also be in town. P.J. Fleck’s squad is 7-1 in conference after dropping a game to Iowa two weeks ago. Minnesota also has 10 wins for the first time since 2003. The bottom line is that in the 129th meeting between the two teams, there is more on the line than just Paul Bunyan’s Axe. The winner has a date with No. 1 Ohio State in the B10 Championship game.
Scouting Wisconsin
Wisconsin has always been a program that prides itself on defense. But in 2019, the offense has been the story. The Badgers average 35.5 points per game and 441.6 yards per game. This is, of course, led by Heisman candidate RB Jonathan Taylor, who is second in the nation in yards rushing (1,685) and yards per game (153.2). Taylor adds 18 rushing touchdowns and four receiving to cap an incredible junior season. Slowing down Taylor is easier said than done. Minnesota does have a good run defense, but Taylor has gashed Top 25 teams to the tune of 6.8 rushing yards per carry against ranked opponents. To make matters worse for Minnesota, Taylor has rushed for over 200 yards in three straight games. This kid is stupid good. The Wisconsin offense starts and ends with Taylor.
At quarterback, the Badgers get very efficient play from Jack Coan. Coan only averages 184.5 yards passing per game, but he completes 72.7% of his passes and rarely turns the ball over. Coan’s favorite targets WR Quintez Cephus and TE Jake Ferguson both have steady hands and have been reliable all season. My concern lies with if Coan has to take control of a game. It has not happened this season much with the consistent greatness from Taylor, but Coan struggled especially in the Badgers’ first loss against Ohio State.
All this being said, Wisconsin’s defense is still among the best in the nation. 7th best, in fact. They only allow a touch over 14 points per game and are 4th in the country in defensive touchdowns. The Badgers defense has pitched four shutouts this season and is good against the run and the pass. Minnesota is going to have its hands full against one of the best defensive programs in the nation.
Scouting Minnesota
It’s crazy to think a Wisconsin-Minnesota battle could be a shootout, but the Gophers offense has been great too, averaging 431.8 yards per game. He may not be Jonathan Taylor, but RB Rodney Smith has gone over 1,000 yards this season and adds eight touchdowns to lead the Gopher run game. At 5 foot 10, 210 pounds, Smith is no picnic to bring down. But the guy I want to talk about today is QB Tanner Morgan.
When I ranked college football’s surprising undefeated teams a few weeks ago, I ranked the Gophers pretty low because I did not believe in Morgan. I’m here today to tell you I was wrong. Morgan has now thrown for 2,679 yards, 26 TD and just five picks. In the Gopher’s biggest win of the season over Penn State, Morgan was 18-20 for 339 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those numbers jump off the page. Morgan has been especially good at throwing the deep ball and finding tight windows, something he struggled with early in his career. If Morgan can be that legit, with two stud receivers in Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman, this offense is tough to stop. Both Johnson and Bateman have over 1,000 yards receiving this season, 15th and 16th in the nation, respectively.
Minnesota is pretty darn good defensively as well. Its defense ranks 10th in the nation in total yards and allows 21 points per contest. The rush defense has been solid, but stopping Taylor is a whole different animal. Overall, the balance between these two teams is very noticeable.
Prediction
It is going to be rocking at TCF Bank Stadium. Even more so than the Penn State game. This is one of college football’s oldest rivalries, with the all-time record all tied up at 60-60-8. Minnesota stopped a 14-game Badgers win streak last season on the road. Wisconsin is a very talented football team and I don’t know if slowing down Jonathan Taylor is really even an option. This is a close game that could come down the quarterback play. I like Tanner Morgan a heck of a lot more than Jack Coan. For that reason, I’m taking the Gophers to win the Big 10 West and this game, 31-27. Row the boat!