In an article from July, I said that Jordan Montgomery “will be a key depth piece in the Yankees’ chase for their 28th title.” Well, here we are. With the Bronx Bombers trailing two games to one in the American League Division Series, they will likely need a strong outing from Montgomery to help keep their season alive.

The Yankees are in this position for several reasons. One reason is injuries (Luis Severino received Tommy John surgery before the season, James Paxton has been out since late August with a flexor strain in his throwing arm) that have severely depleted their rotation. Another factor is the change in the postseason schedule, which was done mid-season by Rob Manfred and his cronies. The current schedule does not allow off days during postseason series’, and this has already played a major role in depleting arms from both starting rotations and bullpens alike.

Decisions, Decisions

Another, more glaring factor (at least at the moment) was the decision to start rookie Deivi Garcia in Game 2. More specifically, the decision to relieve Garcia after just one inning, in favor of J.A. Happ.

Now, the strategy did make a bit of sense. The supposed idea from the Yankees brass was to start Garcia, allow the Rays to stack their lineup with left-handed hitters, then give the ball to the left-handed Happ.

However, Garcia faced three left-handed hitters in the first inning, and none of them recorded a hit. The solo home run that Garcia allowed was off the bat of the red-hot Randy Arozarena, a right-hander.

To be somewhat fair, we likely would not be discussing this had Happ pitched well. Ultimately, that was what the plan hinged on. With that being said, it still didn’t make a ton of sense to bring Happ in relief. Although he was effective out of the bullpen during the 2019 postseason, Happ has been vocal about being more comfortable as a starter. He echoed this sentiment to the media after Game 2, as well.

“[The Yankees] know how I felt about it,” Happ said regarding the decision to use him in relief. “But ultimately, I pitch when I pitch.”

Monty’s Time to Shine

Jordan Montgomery has not particularly had a strong season. There were high hopes for him as he returned to the team following Tommy John surgery in mid-2018. The surgery sidelined him for 16 months, and the Yankees were ecstatic for the consistent southpaw to rejoin the staff. However, since returning, he has struggled with that consistency, the same trait that made him stand out from 2017-18.

In 2020, Monty has recorded an ERA of 5.11 across 10 starts. He has relied more heavily on his sinker this season than ever, to mixed results. Hitters have recorded an expected batting average of .275 against Montgomery’s sinker this year, in addition to an xBA of .331 against his fastball (courtesy of Baseball Savant).

In order to be effective, Montgomery will need to have primo command of his secondary pitches (curveball and changeup). He is more of a contact pitcher, and being able to spot these two pitches in the zone, as well as out of the zone, is going to be key if Monty wants to generate soft contact.

However, as the Rays have shown, they don’t particularly struggle against left-handed pitching. As a team, Tampa Bay has an on-base percentage of .336 and a slugging percentage of .447 against southpaws this season. Both numbers are notably higher than their splits against right-handers in 2020 (.324 and .415, respectively).

Heading into the game, the numbers don’t necessarily favor Montgomery and the Yankees. But, all hope is not lost, as the Yankees could have an extremely valuable backup plan.

More Deivi?

Despite Garcia getting the start in Game 2, he could be (and should be) very much in the mix for Game 4 as well. In case Montgomery implodes, or is hit hard, Deivi Garcia is likely the primary option in terms of long-relief for the Bombers.

Garcia threw just 27 pitches on Tuesday, so he will be readily available should the Yankees need him to eat innings. However, with most of the primary bullpen arms rested, it will likely be all hands on deck for Game 4.

Chad Green threw an inning in Game 3, but all other primary relief weapons got the night off. Expect to see Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman tonight, as well. And with Green’s reputation as a workhorse, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on the bump again in Game 4.

Offensive Monotony

As much as the pitching can be discussed, and blamed, the Yankees offense will simply need to hit the ball better if they want to keep the series alive. The Bombers have left a combined total of 13 men on base in the last two games. Aside from Giancarlo Stanton, there haven’t been any particularly big, momentum-changing swings in this series from anyone in a Yankee uniform.

It sounds strange to say since the Yanks scored 5 runs in Game 2, and 4 in Game 3. Those are pretty respectable totals. However, they are still missing the “big” hit in the series. In the Wild Card series, it was the Gio Urshela grand slam. Aaron Judge had a chance for one in Game 2, batting as the go-ahead run in the 9th, but he grounded out to end the game.

Luke Voit also had a chance at one in Game 3, with the bases loaded in the 3rd inning, and the game tied at 1. However, he grounded out to shortstop to end the inning. Heading into Game 4, the Yankees need the offense to come through in those big moments. Missing those pitches in Games 2 or 3 isn’t the end of the world, it just plays a factor in the team being put in a tough position.

Well, now that the team is in a tough position. Coming through in those spots isn’t an option anymore. It is win or go home, and the Yankees offense has the ability to decide which one it will be.

All Eyes on the Pinstripes

Looking ahead to a potential Game 5, the Yankees will send out ace Gerrit Cole on three days’ rest. A winner-take-all game, with Cole on the mound, sounds pretty appealing to the Yankees, especially considering their position right now. However, a large hurdle lies ahead, and the Yankees must leap it in order to put themselves in that position.

All eyes will be on Jordan Montgomery as he toes the rubber for Game 4. But regardless of Montgomery’s outing, the Yankee offense will have to come alive if they want to force a Game 5.