A 16 seed has NEVER beat a 1. That is not a typo, and it is also not surprising. But should it be? There have been a handful of two seeds to get canned in the first round, including a championship favorite Michigan State just last season. I think that eventually it could happen, but will this year be the year? Let’s examine.
Villanova vs. Mount St. Mary’s/New Orleans
Whichever team comes out of the play-in game in the East region should be much outmatched. Villanova is one of the strongest teams in the nation on the offensive end (4th in Off. Efficiency) while MSM and NO are 253rd and 206th respectively. Villanova is also a ton better on the defensive end. I expect Nova to roll by 20. Nothing to see here.
Gonzaga vs. South Dakota State
Maybe it’ll be the mid-major school to do it? Nope, think again. While Gonzaga is STACKED on both sides of the floor (2nd in Offense, 1st in Defense), the Jackrabbits are just 327th on the defensive side of the ball. There is no way this South Dakota State team will be able to stop Gonzaga from doing whatever they please. Next!
Kansas vs. NC Central/UC Davis
Whoever the Jayhawks face will have to go through a play-in game first, but that won’t stop the intrigue here. While on paper, Kansas will be favored by a lot, I’m here to tell you that this is the matchup to watch! NC Central is the only 16 seed that may even be on the same stratosphere as KU. While they may be under-seeded, this team is still dangerous. Kansas #14 offense will be going up against the #12 defense of NC Central. Pair that with the matchup of NC Central’s #97 offense versus Kansas’ 99th ranked defense, and this matchup is closer than it seems. While I am not calling for the upset here, I will certainly take the points in whatever the spread ends up being.
North Carolina vs. Texas Southern
Texas Southern is a very good team and should not be taken lightly. With that being said, I think they will be a bit overmatched here by the size and skill level of the Heels.
Verdict: Maybe?
If we were ever going to seed a sixteen seed win, the NC Central opportunity is as good as any we’ve seen in recent years. Now it’s highly unlikely to happen, but you can bet that I’ll be rooting for NC Central come Friday.
