Photo via Associated Press
The best month of the year is here. No, it’s not because of my birthday on March 18th, but rather because the prime of the college basketball season is here. Yet, this season March feels a lot different in college hoops, for better or worse.
There is the elephant in the room: the uncertainty of how everything will play out in College Basketball with the FBI investigation, to go along with the palpable uncertainty on the court. This may be one of the most-wide open NCAA Tournaments we’ve seen in a while. There are teams that will be seeded from one to even ten that are talented enough to run the table.
Ohio State: Contender or Pretender?
The Buckeyes went 15-4 in Big 10 play, but three of those losses were to Penn State, including one in the Big 10 tournament. This may be a red flag, but remember that last season’s Florida team lost three times to Vanderbilt, and still made the elite eight. Regardless, Ohio State is an interesting team to watch this month. Chris Holtmann took over the Buckeyes in the summer, after the abrupt firing of long-time head coach Thad Matta, and the Big 10 Coach of the Year led OSU to a phenomenal season no one saw coming, finishing 24-8 overall to go along with that conference record.
But just how far can Ohio State go?
We’ve seen games like February 7th, where the Buckeyes went on the road and beat Purdue, but we’ve also seen the OSU team that lost three to Penn State, including a 79-56 beat down in State College, PA. Keita Bates-Diop has developed into one of the top forwards in the country, and there is some surrounding talent, but question marks remain if Ohio State is talented enough to be consistently good. March will reveal a lot about this interesting Ohio State club. One way or another, Buckeye fans have plenty to be excited about for the future in Columbus.
What’s Good with Arizona?
Although we got more clarity on the situation Thursday night when Sean Miller denied any wrongdoing and returned to the sidelines to coach Arizona, there are still major questions remaining about the situation. What we do know is that the Wildcats should be at full strength the rest of the way, after Allonzo Trier returned Thursday, as well. That means the Wildcats are back to having arguably the most talented roster in the country. The big question is: can they block out the outside noise?
There will still be noise from the FBI investigation, and whether it’s true Miller discussed a $100K payment to secure DeAndre Ayton signing with Arizona or not remains to be seen, but it still may affect U of A on the court. The Wildcats are overloaded with talent and on Saturday locked up yet another Pac-12 title with a win over lowly California at home, but it will be interesting if they can match the pre-season hype still and reach their first ever final four. Only time will tell if Arizona can turn this off-the-court turmoil into a March Madness success story.
Which Duke Team Will We See?
Like Arizona, the Blue Devils are arguably the most talented team in the land with Marvin Bagley back from injury to go along with a tremendous core of Gary Trent Jr., Grayson Allen, Wendell Carter, Trevon Duval, and others. But Duke has had its fair share of inconsistencies this year, mostly because of defense. The Blue Devils lost three games from December to February to inferior opponents because of horrid defense. Boston College put up 89 in a win over Duke in Chestnut Hill, NC State pulled off the upset in Raleigh with 96 points, and St. John’s beat Mike Krzyzewski’s club, 81-77 at Madison Square Garden after entering the game 0-11 in Big East play.
Times have changed as of late, however. Coach K has taken a page out of old friend Jim Boeheim’s playbook and is going with the 2-3 zone, and it’s starting to take shape. Duke has won five of its last six, and the most it hass let up in that span is 69 points in an 11-point win at Georgia Tech back on February 11th. The Blue Devils let up just 64 and 52 points in two matchups with Virginia Tech, which ranks 33rd in the nation in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, during the span. If Duke can keep playing this way defensively, it will be one tall task for anyone to beat the Blue Devils throughout March and maybe into April.
Who Will Rise from the Pack in the SEC?
The SEC is literally wide open this season. Auburn (yes this is basketball) and Tennessee lead the conference at 12-5 each in league play, but both have had their fair share of ups and downs throughout the year. It’s really anyone’s league to win in the tournament. John Calipari has his young Wildcats playing their best ball at the right time, as Kentucky has won four straight, but this is perhaps one of Calipari’s least talented teams he’s had at UK, shown by seven losses in SEC play. Florida, too, is playing good ball with recent wins over Auburn, Alabama, and a sweep of Kentucky, but the Gators have been extremely inconsistent, with losses to Ole Miss, Georgia, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. A team to watch here may be Missouri, which has lost three of its last four, but is an extremely talented group that could have star freshman Michael Porter Jr. returning any day now. It will be fun to see which team rises out of the pack in this evenly matched league.
Which Mid-Majors Are for Real?
Every year, there is at least one mid-major squad that has a dominant regular season and is armed to make a deep run in March. We’ve seen it over-and-over again with Gonzaga, which lost in the National Championship last year, Wichita State, Dayton, and others. Who will it be this year? Gonzaga and Wichita State are definite possibilities, with the Shockers sitting at 24-5 in their first season in the American Athletic Conference, and Gonzaga at 27-4. Rhode Island is a candidate, as well, as Danny Hurley’s club has dominated the Atlantic-10 all season, and has tournament experience after nearly reaching the Sweet 16 last year. Nevada and Saint Mary’s also should receive quality seeds on Selection Sunday and could make some noise this month. It will be interesting to see which mid-majors can make a run in 2018.
Who Is the Clear Favorite, If Any?
As wide open as this NCAA Tournament could be, there are still a few teams that will stand out from the pack, but who are they? Virginia should be a clear favorite, currently the consensus top overall seed at 28-2 overall and 17-1 in ACC play, but for some reason, people have been hesitant to go all-in on the Cavaliers. Sure, their defense is beyond outstanding, but UVA has yet to find a consistent leading scorer, which could leave them vulnerable to an upset in March. Maybe Sophomore Kyle Guy or Redshirt Freshman De’Andre Hunter, who just hit a game-winning three at Louisville, could step up and be that guy. Villanova is stellar too, the most offensively efficient team in the country according to KenPom, led by the formidable duo of Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson. But Nova, too, has hit some bumps in the road with losses to St. John’s at home, and Butler, Providence, and Creighton on the road.
Kansas and Xavier also have their question marks, as do most teams being considered National Title contenders right now. I think it’s safe to say there’s no clear favorite, although Virginia could separate itself from the rest of the group with an ACC Tournament championship.
