It’s bowl season, baby. Opening weekend bowl games are exciting, regardless of who is playing. This game features the FIU Panthers (6-6) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) in a battle for a trophy commemorating Arkansas’ State Flower.
How They Got Here: Florida International
At 6-6, there obviously wasn’t a lot of room for error for the Panthers. Their statement win came as 21-point underdogs to a struggling Miami team, which clinched them a spot for themselves in bowl season.
FIU leans heavily their top running backs, Anthony Jones and Napoleon Maxwell, who combined for over 1,400 yards and 17 TDs. As a team, the Panthers average 168 YPG on the ground, fourth best in their conference.
The Panthers are one of the best teams in the country against the pass, allowing just 178.5 YPG through the air. That is good for sixth best in the country. Linebacker Sage Lewis has been the man for the Panthers, leading the team in INTs (3), is 2nd on the team with 81 tackles, and also added 3 TFLs.
The Panthers struggled to get into the backfield of opposing offenses, only tallying a combined 18 sacks, which was fifth-worst in C-USA. FIU also struggles to stop the run, allowing just over 200 YPG on the ground at around 5 YPC.
How They Got Here: Arkansas State
Interestingly enough, the Red Wolves had one win over a team with a .500 record. In the second to last game of the season, they defeated the Georgia Southern Eagles (7-5) 38-33. They followed up that victory falling to the South Alabama Jaguars (2-10) 30-34 to close out the season.
Arkansas State QB Logan Bonner injured his thumb in the fourth game of the season and was replaced by Layne Hatcher. Hatcher has completed 68.3 percent of his passes, thrown for over 2,500 yards and 23 touchdowns.
A lot of his success is due to Sun Belt POY Omar Bayless. The redshirt senior brought in 84 passes for over 1,400 yards and 16 TDs.
Defensively, they are led by rising star DE William Bradley-King. He has been a force on the line with 13.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, and 3 FFs. The Red Wolves also struggle to stop the run and allow just over 220 YPG on the ground at 5 YPC, ninth worst in the country.
Player to Watch
Florida International: Anthony Jones/Napoleon Maxwell
As I mentioned before, these guys are carrying the load offensively. They’re going up against a team that allows over 200 rushing YPG. With a QB completing 58% of his passes, you have to imagine Head Coach Butch Davis is ready to run the ball down the Red Wolves’ throats.
Arkansas State: Omar Bayless
The aforementioned Sun Belt POY and Layne Hatcher’s security blanket, he needs to put out his best work against a top ranked FIU pass defense. I can’t imagine the Red Wolves will force the pass, but having a guy like Bayless sure makes it easy to go that direction.
Gambling Picks (Arkansas State -2.5, O/U 62.5)
With both defenses less than stellar against the run, it seems like this game will be run heavy. The real battle will be between FIU’s top ranked passing defense and the Layne Hatcher/Omar Bayless connection.
Either way this shakes out, FIU seems like they’ll have more opportunities to capitalize with an overall weak Arkansas State defense. I like the over, FIU +2.5, and while you’re at it, throw some on the money line as well.
