Welcome back to another week of NFL Previews! Week 15 has some marquee matchups, and clinching situations are starting to look clearer. The MVP race is tightening up, and the frontrunners also appear to be willing their teams toward the top seeds in their respective conferences. These are the things that make the NFL so great. Let’s take a closer look at all of it.
Last Week: 12-4 Straight Up, 9-7 ATS
Running Total: 52-23 Straight Up, 39-36 ATS
Thursday Night: Chargers vs. Raiders (-3)
The second matchup of the season between these two teams is a huge one for Las Vegas. They’re on the outside looking in, and likely need to win out to have a chance at the postseason. This was a one score game earlier in the season, and I think it’ll be close again. Austin Ekeler wasn’t available the last time these two met, and I think his abilities are perfect against the Raiders defense. The Chargers put an end to Vegas’ playoff chances early with a slight upset.
The Pick: Chargers 31-27
Saturday Games
Bills (-7) vs. Broncos
The Bills came out and made a statement on Sunday night. The 1 seed is possible, if not a long shot, while the 2 seed seems very attainable now. In order to keep pace, they can’t slip up, and I don’t expect them to this week. Drew Lock was much better last week, but the Bills look like they’re on a mission right now.
The Pick: Bills 34-24
Panthers vs. Packers (-9)
With the Saints losing last week, the Packers control their own destiny in route to the NFC’s top seed. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have been on another level together this season. A full season from Adams could’ve been pretty historical. I think they’ll keep that magic going against an average Carolina defense.
The Pick: Packers 35-27
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Buccaneers (-5.5) vs. Falcons
As I often say, division matchups are unpredictable. The Bucs are probably the better team on paper, but the Falcons would love to spoil Tampa’s playoff position. With that said, Atlanta just seems to be out of gas. It’s been a whirlwind of a season for them, and the effects are showing. Save for a 43 point explosion against the Raiders, the Falcons haven’t put up over 20 in a game since November 8th. I can’t see them finding the firepower to keep up with the Bucs this week.
The Pick: Buccaneers 26-17
49ers (-3) vs. Cowboys
It’s been a disappointing season for each of these two proud franchises. Injuries have hit both of these squads harder than most this year, and the end result is an underwhelming week 15 matchup that had to be flexed out of primetime. A win last week kept the Cowboys alive for at least one more week in the playoff hunt. I think they nab one more here against a depleted San Francisco group.
The Pick: Cowboys 24-21
Lions vs. Titans (-10.5)
There couldn’t be a better matchup for Derrick Henry during the fantasy playoffs. Running backs have torched Detroit all season, and now they face the king. Ryan Tannehill has gotten back to playing at a high level as well. Detroit has looked better since firing Matt Patricia, but I don’t think they can hang with the Titans.
The Pick: Titans 34-24
Texans vs. Colts (-7.5)
The Colts just dominated one bad defense in Las Vegas, and now they get another one in Houston. I genuinely feel bad for Deshaun Watson. He deserves better, and I hope the Texans get it right next offseason for his sake. Jonathan Taylor finally appears to be getting the touches he’s deserved all year, and that could be a great thing against Houston’s run defense.
The Pick: Colts 30-23
Patriots vs. Dolphins (-2.5)
This is probably the hardest game for me to get a read on this week. We are going to find out a lot about what type of big game quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is. Miami really needs to go at least 2-1 the rest of the way, and potentially even 3-0 to make the playoffs. The Dolphins famously ruined the Patriots bye last year in week 17, and the Pats could deliver a similar blow this time around. New England has struggled with Miami in the past years, and I think Brian Flores gets a signature win against his old mentor, Bill Belichick.
The Pick: Dolphins 28-25
Bears vs. Vikings (-3.5)
Whoever wins this game can basically knock the other team out of the playoff hunt. The Bears surprised me last week with a dominating win over Houston. I’ve always been more of a fan of Mitch Trubisky than most have, and I think last week restored some of that faith I’ve had in him. The Vikings are probably the better team, but they’ve been shaky lately. Dan Bailey is a real concern right now for them. I’m rolling with the Bears in a surprise victory to keep them alive.
The Pick: Bears 23-17
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Football Team
If you’ve been following these for the past few weeks, then you know I love The Washington Football Team. They’ve been my guys in these picks and a 5.5 spread still feels disrespectful, even if they are facing the Seahawks. Is it hyperbole to say Washington boasts the best defense in the NFL right now? Chase Young looks every bit like the next great edge rusher in this league. We just saw the Seahawks struggle with the Giants two weeks ago, and Washington’s philosophy is fairly similar. With all that said, this is the week I’m finally gonna have to pick against my guys. Seattle grabs this one to stay alive in the NFC West hunt, which would help them avoid a potential rematch here in the Wild Card round.
The Pick: Seahawks 27-24
Jaguars vs. Ravens (-13.5)
The Ravens just gave us the game of the year, and Lamar Jackson easily gave us the highlight of the season on Monday night. Who’s to say why Lamar went back to the locker room? Whatever the reason, the sequence that followed felt straight out of a movie. Most importantly, the win kept the Ravens alive. A playoff birth for Baltimore would, in my opinion, make them the most dangerous lowest seed in NFL Playoff history. Ravens roll in this one.
The Pick: Ravens 35-20
Jets vs. Rams (-17)
A 17 point spread seems pretty insane, but if anyone can do it, it’s the Jets. This could be Aaron Donald’s most monstrous day yet, which would be saying something. The Rams just blew out the Patriots and are coming off of extra rest and preparation. They’ve been solid against the spread this year while the Jets haven’t. A blowout really is in the cards in L.A.
The Pick: Rams 37-17
Eagles vs. Cardinals (-6.5)
Well, this game got a whole lot more intriguing over the past week. Jalen Hurts looked every bit the part leading the Eagles to a stunning upset over the Saints in his first career start. Hurts adds another element to Philly’s offense that Carson Wentz just did not bring. More importantly, the Eagles finally got Miles Sanders going against one of the league’s toughest road defenses. The Cardinals looked great last week as well, as their defense came alive to handle the Giants. For how great the Eagles were last week, I’m still not sure they’ll have an answer for DeAndre Hopkins out wide.
The Pick: Cardinals 30-23
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Saints
This week’s game of the week goes down in the Superdome. After the loss to the Eagles last week, this game becomes that much more important to the Saints. A loss here with a Packers win on Saturday night would all but end their bid for the 1 seed. Despite the firm hold on the top spot in the AFC, this game is still important for the Chiefs. A defining win here would give them some breathing room for a potential end of year slip-up. I have no clue how Kansas City will stop Alvin Kamara, but I also can’t see the Chiefs offense rolling over either. This could be quite the shootout.
The Pick: Chiefs 40-37
Sunday Night: Browns (-4.5) vs. Giants
An interesting Sunday night matchup that I don’t think many would’ve predicted to be interesting at the start of the season. Despite the loss, the Browns performance on Monday night showed the league that they are definitely for real. Baker Mayfield has quietly been fantastic over the past few weeks, and we already know they have the NFL’s best rushing attack. The Giants could not get anything going against Arizona on Sunday, and they gave up a significant game to Washington. Myles Garrett will be the difference maker in this one.
The Pick: Browns 31-20
Monday Night: Steelers (-12) vs. Bengals
I guess ESPN just can’t get enough of the AFC North. Monday Night Football will feature two teams from this division for the second week in a row, but the intrigue won’t exactly be as great for this matchup. This game is exactly what the Steelers need right now. They’ve lost their stronghold on the AFC, and probably some confidence as well. Bouncing back emphatically against a terrible Bengals team without so many of their key weapons is essential for this team.
The Pick: Steelers 28-13
*Our odds are provided by our friends at BUSR. If you want to get in on the action and place a bet today, head over to Busr.com/StudentUnionSports.
MVP Race
5. Aaron Donald- A new defensive face enters the top 5 this week. The most disruptive defensive player in recent NFL history leads the league in sacks yet again, and has been the anchor of a defense that’s 9-4.
4. Russell Wilson- Granted it was against the Jets, but last week was more of what we’re used to from Russ. His day was so solid he didn’t even need to see the field in the 4th quarter to put up numbers.
3. Josh Allen- Statement made, Mr. Allen. A phenomenal second half showed us just how legit Josh Allen can be. You have to win those types of games to be considered the best, and in a year without these top two candidates, Allen would be a great candidate for MVP.
2. Aaron Rodgers- This has basically become 1A and 1B, but for now, I’m still keeping Rodgers at 2. The race is as good as I can remember in a while, and Rodgers has been brilliant over the past few weeks.
1. Patrick Mahomes- Still sticking with Mahomes. While last week was not his best, recency bias shouldn’t play too heavy a factor in this. Rodgers does have more touchdowns, but Mahomes has still accounted for almost 650 more total yards, plus his team has the better record. It’s going to come down to the wire, but if the season ended today, Mahomes would have his 2nd MVP in 3 seasons.
Fantasy Advice:
Five to Play With Confidence:
- JK Dobbins- I think this week could be the best we’ve seen from Dobbins. The matchup with Jacksonville late in the season paired with him finally getting more carries is a combination that I really like for fantasy playoff matchups.
- Cooper Kupp- Kupp has shown up on this list a few times now, and I think he’s a no-brainer yet again this week. I’ve mentioned before how bad the Jets are against the exact style of receiver that Kupp is. He should see a boatload of targets on Sunday.
- Mike Davis- Another guy who’s been on this list before. Davis had started to underperform in the absence of Christian McCaffrey, but he bounced back last week. McCaffrey looks to be out again this week, and Packers have struggled against running backs for fantasy purposes.
- Cam Akers- The second Ram on the list this week. Akers has seen over 20 carries in each of the past two weeks, indicating that Sean McVay might’ve just been waiting for the rookie to adjust to the league before turning him into the man. He should be in line for a lot of carries against the Jets.
- Nelson Agholor- Agholor burned the Chargers for a TD last time these two met, but what I like more is that he’s actually seeing more than just the occasional deep ball lately. He’s had at least 5 catches in 3 of his last 4 games
Five to Hesitate on:
- Leonard Fournette- News just broke that Ronald Jones has been placed on the reserve list, lining up Fournette to be an intriguing play for Tampa this week. This doesn’t guarantee any success. Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, and Atlanta has been tough on running backs this season.
- DJ Chark- Chark has been frustrating this year. His production has been all over the place, which always makes him a breakout candidate. However, the inconsistency and a tough matchup against Baltimore make me think he’s a risky play.
- Todd Gurley- Gurley’s fall has been rapid. It’s tough to watch him fight for yards at certain points in time when we remember how dominant he was just 2-3 years ago. Tampa’s defense doesn’t offer a great matchup for him to buck his recent trend.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire- Clyde was more involved in the passing game last week, which was great to see. With that said, the matchup with the Saints feels like one where the Chiefs will lean on their superstars more than usual. I can’t see Edwards-Helaire having a star impact on this one.
- Noah Fant- There haven’t been a lot of options at Tight End all year, which makes Fant even more of a disappointment. After a hot start to the season, the Broncos really got away from Fant, and even with a decent matchup against Buffalo, I’d look for other options if you have them.
