We’re firmly into October as the NFL season continues to heat up. Just like players begin to get in the swing of things around this time of the year, so do writers as we learn more about each team and are able to make more informed picks. I’m coming off a better week in my picks, hitting on my highest number of the year despite forgetting to include the Seahawks-49ers contest last week. Let’s keep the magic alive this week.
Last Week: 12-3 Straight Up, 8-7 ATS
Running Total: 42-21 Straight Up 31-32 ATS
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Jets vs. Falcons (-3)
Two of the less talented teams in league head across the pond this week for a morning kickoff in London. A lot of people in the U.S. might sleep through this one, and that’s probably ok. The Jets have to be feeling good after stunning the Titans last week, while the Falcons continue to look for answers after gagging one away to Taylor Heinicke and Washington. The Jets keep the momentum going overseas.
The Pick: Jets 27-24
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Eagles at Panthers (-3.5)
The big talk in this game will be about a player not on the field. The Panthers made a splash this week by landing Stephon Gilmore from New England. Should he return at full strength, he transforms Carolina’s secondary in a win-now move. Christian McCaffrey returned to practice this week, and if he plays, expect a big one from him. The Eagles have really struggled against the run in the past two weeks, and CMC is as explosive as they come. After taking their first loss last week, Carolina bounces back at home.
The Pick: Panthers 31-24
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Dolphins at Bucs (-10.5)
The Dolphins appear to be headed down a tough road this season. There were high aspirations entering the season, and without Tua, their offense has really struggled to find any rhythm. Things don’t get any easier with the Bucs up next. Tampa hasn’t looked great over the past two weeks, but they’ve walked out 1-1 and still appear to be top contenders in the NFC. They should take care of business at home this week.
The Pick: Bucs 28-17
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Saints (-1.5) at Football Team
The Saints have a lot of questions to answer heading into this week. After squandering a lead against the winless Giants, New Orleans sits at 2-2, a game back of both the Panthers and Bucs with a direct loss to Carolina as well. They have to get Alvin Kamara more involved, particularly in the passing game. Washington also sits at 2-2, though their season has felt like a mess as well. Their offense had to pick up their defense yet again after they couldn’t stop Atlanta. This expected vaunted unit seemingly can’t stop anyone. Terry McLaurin has been sensational, but how much can a WR do? This is a great opportunity for the Saints to get it going again on offense, and I think Jameis has a nice day.
The Pick: Saints 31-23
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Titans (-4) at Jaguars
Titans fans have to hope that where they are right now is rock bottom for the season. In a weak division with a talented roster, this is team that realistically should be competing for a top seed in the playoffs. Losses like the shocker against the Jets last week can really hurt them down the road. I think they will figure it out, but there are definitely concerns. Trying to figure out what’s going on in Jacksonville right now isn’t even worth it. Urban Meyer felt like a bad fit from day 1, and off-field circumstances are making that even truer. This will be an incredibly long season for DUVAL nation.
The Pick: Titans 35-24
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Lions at Vikings (-7.5)
I expected a shootout between the Vikings and Browns last week and got… not that. Kirk Cousins and his group were stuffed by Cleveland’s defense and they couldn’t generate much offense. I think things will be different against Detroit this week. Expect Minnesota’s talented skill players to show out, and snag an important W for the Vikings.
The Pick: Vikings 34-27
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Broncos at Steelers (-1.5)
In what should be another defensive battle this week, I don’t expect a ton of firework in Pittsburgh. Teddy Bridgewater’s status is up in the air, and if he doesn’t play, the Steelers could feast on mistake-prone Drew Lock. These are two top-shelf defenses playing against two mediocre offenses. Advantage to the team playing at home.
The Pick: Steelers 20-17
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Packers (-3) at Bengals
After another win last week, the Bengals continue to impress and stay among the top of the AFC North. The bad news is that the schedule is about to pick up quite a bit. The Bengals could be a surprise team, but winning games like these are the ones that matter most to prove that. Joe Burrow has played great football this year, and I think he’ll have another nice game on Sunday. The Packers look to be hitting their stride, however. Aaron Rodgers is still Aaron Rodgers, and for that reason, I’m sticking with the Packers in Cincy.
The Pick: Packers 31-23
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Patriots (-9.5) at Texans
This might be the least appealing of the matchups this week. Both of these teams have struggled to get it going in the past few weeks, and the upside appears limited. The Davis Mills era in Houston hasn’t included many positives, and I think it may be on its’ way to an abrupt end. Mac Jones looked encouraging on Sunday night, and I think he makes enough plays to beat one of the league’s worst teams.
The Pick: Patriots 24-17
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Bears at Raiders (-5.5)
The Raiders attempt at a ferocious comeback fell just short on Monday night. They were able to turn it on after getting nothing on offense for the first half. Joey Bosa shared some choice comments about Derek Carr that ruffled a few feathers. Can Carr bounce back this week? He lines up against an interesting opponent in the 2-2 Bears. This is officially Justin Fields’ team, and last week we saw what he could do when the playbook opens up. If the O-Line can contain Maxx Crosby, I think the Bears have a chance to pull off a shocker on the road.
The Pick: Bears 27-24
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Browns at Chargers (-1)
One of the best games of the week goes down in LA. Justin Herbert has looked every bit the part in his sophomore campaign. He really commands his offense, and he’s making some throws that only a number of QBs in the league can make. Baker Mayfield had a tough day last week. Cleveland scraped out the W, but Mayfield missed a few throws that could’ve been big plays. He’ll have to tighten up this week to keep pace with Herbert.
The Pick: Chargers 30-27
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Giants at Cowboys (-7)
The Giants showed a great deal of guts in their comeback win over the Saints. A career day from Daniel Jones paired with Saquon being Saquon gave fans a glimpse of what this offense can be at its peak. It was nice seeing 1st rounder Kadarius Toney get involved as well. Dallas looks like a legit contender in the NFC through 4 weeks. The defense was the big concern, but budding stars like Trevon Diggs have anchored that side of the ball. The offense continues to roll, as Dak and Zeke are picking up where they left off. The NFC East is theirs for the taking.
The Pick: Cowboys 34-24
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49ers at Cardinals (-5.5)
Who had the Cardinals as the NFL’s last unbeaten team? After an exciting but disappointing 2020 season, Kyler Murray and his crew have opened this year with a vengeance. Arizona went into Los Angeles and picked apart the Rams. They’ve been dominant in a few games this year, and look like a real threat in the NFC West. The Niners might be turning to Trey Lance for his first career start this week. If Lance can take down the top team in the league on the road, he might just wrap up the starting gig for the year. Not sure that happens, however. Expect a big game from Kyler and DHop.
The Pick: Cardinals 37-30
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Sunday Night: Bills at Chiefs (-3)
Sunday night features a rematch of the AFC Championship game. Buffalo is one of football’s hottest teams, while Kansas City got back on track with a victory in Philly last week. The Bills have suffocated teams on defense, but they’re in for a bigger test with the KC offense. The Chiefs defense can’t stop anyone right now, and it’s hard to imagine that changes against the red hot Josh Allen. Expect a high-scoring contest where a primetime Arrowhead crowd makes the difference.
The Pick: Chiefs 42-38
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Monday Night: Colts at Ravens (-7)
Baltimore took care of unbeaten Denver and looks to move to 4-1 after a primetime date with Indy. The Colts finally got in the win column last week. With the current state of the AFC South, it isn’t crazy to say that the Colts very well could still compete for a division title. This would be a signature road win if they were able to pull it off. Baltimore has had its fair share of primetime games early on this year, and I think they secure another win on the big stage this Monday.
The Pick: Ravens 30-24
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MVP Race:
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Murray currently leads the field by a big margin. He has clearly taken a step forward this season and as long as the Cardinals keep winning, this spot will be his to lose.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Stafford remains in the top two despite a shaky effort last week. He’s still been fantastic overall in his first year with the Rams and the numbers are there.
- Justin Herbert (QB- LAC): The Chargers’ franchise QB of the future re-enters the discussion this week after a few huge games in a row. Herbert really looks like he’s taken his game to another level, and he has the Chargers winning games as well.
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Brady wasn’t stellar in his return to New England, but his overall season has been pretty solid. His 10-2 TD-INT ratio is fantastic, and he’s keeping the Bucs at the top of the NFC.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB- KC): Mahomes is back in my top 5 after a 5 touchdown effort against Philly. He leads the NFL in TD passes by 3 through 4 weeks and it’s a safe bet that he’ll finish the year atop the leaderboard.
