Welcome back to another week in the NFL. Storylines will always dominate this league, and the big one this week is the potential trades for Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson being back on the table. There’s quite a bit going on off the field right now for Watson, so for a team to take a gamble on him despite that says quite a bit about the where those teams are, as well as Watson’s talent. Whether he lands somewhere or not is hard to say (though I would lean towards it not happening,) but with or without him there’s still football to play!
Some divisional matchups highlight the docket this week. Eyes will be on Joe Burrow and Bengals as they continue to try and make some noise in the AFC. There will also be a lot of buzz about Patrick Mahomes vs. Derrick Henry: round 3. Henry got the best of him in their regular season matchup in the 2019-2020 season, but Mahomes took the last laugh in the AFC Title game that same season. Expect points there.
Last Week: 9-5 Straight Up, 7-7 ATS
Running Total: 63-30 Straight Up, 50-43 ATS
Thursday Night: Broncos at Browns (-3)
What does it say about the Broncos that they still enter as underdogs despite the fact that the Browns will roll out a backfield of their backup QB and 3rd string RB? After a 3-0 start against some weaker competition, Denver appears to be coming back down to earth, as the defense has taken a step back and the offense continues to be stagnant at times. The Browns really need Case Keenum to step up against his former team. Another loss could put them well behind the Ravens, or even the Bengals, in the AFC North hunt. Thankfully for them, they should be able to get it done behind Myles Garrett and the defense.
The Pick: Browns 24-20
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Bengals at Ravens (-6)
Sunday morning gets started with a big-time divisional matchup. Cincy continues to impress, handling inferior teams and playing competitively with top-tier squads. If they can go into Baltimore and take down Lamar, people are going to start looking at them in a whole new light. It’s worth noting just how awesome the Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase connection has been as well. That will be fun for years to come. The Ravens happen to be the hottest team in football outside of Arizona right now. Their defense confused Justin Herbert all game on Sunday, and they rolled to a big win over a contender. They keep it going at home this weekend.
The Pick: Ravens 31-27
Panthers (-3) at Giants
Like the Broncos, the Panthers have taken a step back after their 3-0 start. Sam Darnold looks more like the Jets version of himself, and with no Christian McCaffrey to help out in the backfield, he’s got to be better if Carolina is going to climb back to contender status. Danny Dimes has also had a rough go lately, tossing 3 picks in a blowout loss to the Rams last week. It’s unfortunate that he still has barely had any chances to play a game with all of his skill position players on the field. It’s an unlucky circumstance for the Giants, and it hits them again this week.
The Pick: Panthers 26-23
Football Team at Packers (-9.5)
In case you hadn’t heard; Aaron Rodgers still owns the Bears. The hall-of-fame sound byte from the legendary QB is all over social media, and it’s also pretty true. Rodgers has given fans of each NFC North team headaches over the years, and his reign extends to most of the NFC in general. Washington is next up. The Football Team continues to disappoint, and it doesn’t get any easier on the defense heading into Lambeau. This one could get ugly.
The Pick: Packers 35-20
Chiefs (-5.5) at Titans
The first half of the Chiefs’ matchup with Washington was every nightmare fans have had during the season put into 30 minutes. Defensive breakdowns, fumbles, and the worst interception Patrick Mahomes will likely ever throw in his career had the Chiefs in a hole against a league bottom feeder. The second half, however, was everything fans expect. Mahomes was nearly perfect, the defense pitched a shutout, and KC stormed to a blowout victory. Things get a little more challenging when Derrick Henry lines up in the backfield next week. Henry is doing it again this year, and he’s putting the Titans on his back. KC is awful against the run, and Tennessee is awful against the pass. This has shootout written all over it.
The Pick: Chiefs 42-40
Falcons (-2.5) at Dolphins
The Dolphins’ slide hit a new low following a London loss to the winless Jaguars. They’ve dropped 5 straight, and now they have to brush off the jet lag from an international flight with no bye week. That seems like an unfair situation, given that every team that goes abroad is treated to a bye week in the following week. Meanwhile, the Falcons will be fresh off of their own bye week. The level of attrition makes the difference in this one.
The Pick: Falcons 28-24
Jets at Patriots (-7)
Mac Jones almost got his moment against the Cowboys last week. Responding to what looked like a game-sealing pick 6 with a touchdown pass on the first play of the next series is big time. Unfortunately, Dak Prescott marched the Cowboys right back down the field, then won the game in OT. The game should still be encouraging for Patriots fans. I’m not sure many thought they’d be competitive in this one, and nobody thought they’d limit Zeke like they did. New England gave Zach Wilson fits in the first matchup of the year, look for them to do it again.
The Pick: Patriots 27-17
Lions at Rams (-15.5)
The Lions have been unlucky in a few games this year, but they’re also just a bad football team. Props to Dan Campbell for his heart and getting this team up each week, but things aren’t going to get much better soon. Matt Stafford should have an absolute field day in his first game against his old franchise.
The Pick: Rams 38-17
Eagles at Raiders (-3)
This stands out to me as one of the most interesting matchups of the week. The Raiders got back on track amidst the off-field drama with a divisional win, and now they welcome Jalen Hurts and his squad to Vegas. Philly played Tampa very tough, and they get the mini-bye that comes with playing on Thursday night. The extra prep time lands them what I think many will see as a surprising victory.
The Pick: Eagles 30-27
Bears at Bucs (-12.5)
The last time these two teams met, we got one of the best sports memes in recent history. How can this years’ matchup possibly top that? It’s hard to say, but I think one thing we can be confident in is a strong showing from Tampa. Tom Brady actually looks like he’s playing in his prime right now. It’s infuriating, insane, and also amazing. The Bucs continue rolling along.
The Pick: Bucs 34-24
Texans at Cardinals (-17.5)
The Texans have been on the bad side of a few lopsided spreads this year. It’s been a long year, and now off-field drama will stir back up with reports of a Deshaun Watson trade swirling around again. None of this equates to a good matchup with the NFL’s lone unbeaten team. Kyler Murray should coast to an easy W this week.
The Pick: Cardinals 35-17
Sunday Night: Colts at 49ers (-3.5)
Gucci Garoppolo likely returns to the field for the 49ers this week, and San Fran is going to need him to get back with Trey Lance also dealing with some injuries. Feeding Deebo Samuel has become the go-to for this offense, and it’s their best shot again this week. The Colts appear to have realized that maybe Jonathan Taylor is a pretty special running back. He’s finally been utilized properly, and the offense looks much more explosive because of it. Indy is better than their record lets on, and I think they steal one in primetime.
The Pick: Colts 33-30
Monday Night: Saints (-5.5) at Seahawks
The Seahawks get yet another primetime game without Russell Wilson at the helm. We saw last week just how much he means to the offense, as Geno Smith really struggled against the Steelers. Their defense did enough to keep them in the game, but New Orleans has a better offense than Pittsburgh does. If Seattle wants to grab a win, they simply have to get Tyler Lockett going. He was unstoppable early in the year, and he was actually getting targets outside of his typical deep balls. Keeping the offense balanced and utilizing him is essential to this teams success. It’s hard to say if we can trust Geno to do that just yet.
The Pick: Saints 26-21
MVP Race:
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): I’m not the biggest Tom Brady fan out there, and even I can’t figure out why he isn’t being talked about more for MVP. He has the Bucs at 5-1 and his numbers, especially at this point in his career, have been absurd. This is his to lose in my book.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Murray had another tremendous performance last week against Cleveland, and it launches him back up my board. Kyler is simply electric on the field, and the Cardinals look like legit contenders.
- Lamar Jackson (QB- BAL): Lamar didn’t need to have the best week last week in order to cruise to a blowout over the Chargers. As long as he keeps doing what he’s doing, especially given the weapons around him are all either injured or dealing with injuries, he will be in the thick of this race.
- Josh Allen (QB- BUF): Allen put up big time numbers against Tennessee on Monday night, but he just fell short (literally). He’s still a big favorite for this award, and with the group around him, he should post some serious stat-lines in the coming weeks.
- Derrick Henry (RB- TEN): Finally time to put The King in this list. The first non-QB of the year to make this list had to be Henry. His performance again this year has been historic. He is entering the territory of true greatness at his position, and he should be in line for a monster week against the Chiefs’ run d.
On The Cusp: Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford
