We have officially entered the thick of the playoff hunt. With 5 weeks to go, we are finally getting an idea of where each team may slot in to the playoff field, while still having plenty of unanswered questions as well.
Week 14 has a lot of great matchups on the schedule. I’ve got my eye on Baltimore, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Tennessee. Each of these teams has been looked at as a legit threat in the AFC at some point this season. Now, all of them have significant question marks, lost their last game, and are staring down big matchups this week.
Last Week: 8-6 Straight Up, 7-7 ATS
Running Total: 125-67-1 Straight Up, 108-85 ATS
Thursday Night: Steelers at Vikings (-3.5)
A big game for two teams trying to stay in the fight for the Wild Card. The Vikings laid an egg last week, dropping one to the winless Lions on the final play of the game. Their end-zone coverage will be teared apart for weeks, but I’m more concerned with how they let Detroit dominate them out of the gate. Pittsburgh meanwhile came out on the winning end of a last second play. Escaping from Baltimore keeps the Steelers above water. This is a tough one to predict. Give me the Vikings in a close one.
The Pick: Vikings 23-21
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Ravens at Browns (-2.5)
A huge AFC North matchup in Cleveland. The Browns are trying to sneak into the playoffs while the Ravens attempt to put a stronghold on the division race. This was an ugly game two weeks ago when these two met, and I anticipate a lot of the same this time around. In these types of rivalries, I think series splits are the most likely outcome, so I’ll go with Cleveland in a bounce-back.
The Pick: Browns 20-17
Raiders at Chiefs (-8.5)
A win this week could really help the Chiefs create some separation from at least one team in their division. This week could essentially knock the Raiders out of the AFC West hunt, and with the Vegas on a tailspin and the game in Arrowhead, this feels like it may happen. The Chiefs defense has been a revelation since the calendar hit November, but the one game where we saw the offense click was against the Raiders. If both sides of the ball fire on all cylinders again, this should be a KC victory.
The Pick: Chiefs 27-20
Jaguars at Titans (-10)
The Titans need this game. Coming off their bye, Jacksonville is the exact opponent that Tennessee should dominate to get back in the win column. This team is nowhere near the juggernaut they might’ve been in October due to unfortunate injury luck. However, with a soft schedule, the Titans still have a chance to run the table and be a top seed in the AFC. It starts with this week.
The Pick: Titans 28-20
Saints (-5.5) at Jets
The Saints have had a mini-bye to prepare for the Jets thanks to a Thursday night matchup last week. At 5-7, things aren’t looking great for their playoff chances, but a matchup with the Jets and a weak bottom half of the NFC could keep them alive for another week.
The Pick: Saints 26-21
Cowboys (-4) at Football Team
Don’t look now, but we’ve got a bit of a race in the NFC East. The Football Team is hot, and they now have a huge opportunity to cut into the Cowboys’ lead in the division with a home matchup. Taylor Heinicke continues to play good football, and Washington is comfortably in the playoff picture. The defense has elevated its play as well. Dallas is the more talented team, but you never know in a rivalry… Gimme Washington in a mild upset in the first one between these two.
The Pick: Football Team 27-24
Falcons at Panthers (-2.5)
Neither of these teams have been particularly impressive this season, but both still have an outside shot at the playoffs. The loser of this game might as well be eliminated, however. Atlanta’s offense has been painful to watch at times this year. I think they struggle again Sunday and Carolina emerges with a W.
The Pick: Panthers 24-17
Seahawks (-7.5) at Texans
There’s the Seahawks! The offense finally got it going a bit last week, and Seattle delivered a crucial blow to the 49ers. They head to Houston for a matchup with the lowly Texans. This should be a great chance for the Seahawks to find some continuity in their offense, and I think they roll to another dub.
The Pick: Seahawks 31-20
Lions at Broncos (-8)
It’s hard not to be happy for the Lions. Dan Campbell’s group has been so close so many times this season. The fact that their first win came on a walk-off makes it even better. Reality does set in, however, and now Detroit is back on the road, facing a team that desperately needs a win. Denver gets the job done to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
The Pick: Broncos 26-20
Giants at Chargers (-10)
Last week we saw the version of the Chargers that had been missing for some time. Keenan Allen found the end-zone a few times, Mike Williams had a big day, and Justin Herbert looked in control. Covid concerns currently plague the Chargers heading into the weekend, as Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Chris Harris are all currently on the Covid list. Thankfully, the Chargers get the Giants this week. This is a good enough team that should these guys not be able to play Sunday, the rest of the roster can handle the load.
The Pick: Chargers 30-23
49ers (-1) at Bengals
Another one of the more intriguing games this week. How will Cincy respond after getting stomped by LA last week. Take away a few key turnovers and that game could’ve looked very different. San Francisco is also looking for a bounce-back. I’m a little surprised they’re favored on the road, and while I like the Niners a lot, I think the Bengals pull this one out to keep things interesting in the AFC North.
The Pick: Bengals 28-25
Bills at Bucs (-3.5)
The Bills are slipping quickly. A brutal home loss in insane conditions on Monday Night pushed the Patriots further ahead in the AFC East. Now, Buffalo heads to Tampa to take on Tom Brady and one of football’s hottest teams right now. This is really bad timing for Buffalo, and with the Bucs in a dogfight for the NFC’s top seed, they can’t afford a slip-up at home. Tom Brady has dealt out a lot of pain to Bills Mafia, and he delivers once more this weekend.
The Pick: Bucs 34-31
Sunday Night: Bears at Packers (-12.5)
I’m pretty surprised this game wasn’t flexed out of Sunday Night Football. There are quite a few better matchups throughout Sunday morning/afternoon. Nonetheless, it looks like we’ll get to see Aaron Rodgers make Bears fans suffer once again on national television. The Packers are gearing up for the post-season, and the Bears are likely gearing up for a new coaching search. That typically doesn’t indicate a great game.
The Pick: Packers 30-20
Monday Night: Rams at Cardinals (-2.5)
The biggest win here is that we’ve now gotten two meaningful Monday Night Football games in a row. A Cardinals win here would essentially wrap up the NFC West, while also putting them in a great position for the NFC’s top seed. Matthew Stafford got back on track against Jacksonville last week, and you know the Rams are eager to pick up the season split with Arizona. I think they do just that, as the Rams pull off a road win to shake up the NFC just a little bit more.
The Pick: Rams 35-32
MVP Race:
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Each week we get a little bit closer to this. Brady has been sensational all year, and the Bucs are running away with the NFC South. The race is his to lose.
- Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): Rodgers continues to do what he’s always done, which is not throw interceptions. His 23-4 TD-INT ratio is one of the league’s best, and the Packers continue to rack up wins.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): A big rebound game for Stafford against Jacksonville last week. There’s been ups and downs, but it’s hard to argue the overall success that the Stafford/LA connection has been so far.
- Jonathan Taylor (RB- IND): Taylor just continues to carry Indianapolis. His numbers have been video game-esque basically since October. He’s been instrumental in pulling the Colts back into playoff contention.
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): Murray’s time on the shelf will likely keep him from winning MVP, but after a great performance in his first game back, he felt like a worthy inclusion on the list. When he’s played, Kyler has been a revelation, and the Cardinals have rolled to the league’s best record.
*On The Cusp: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, TJ Watt, Matt Judon, Kirk Cousins
