The first Week 18 in NFL history is here! With the season extended by one week, we get another weekend of huge matchups that will set the playoff matchups in stone. Many teams are in must-win situations, with others looking to boost their seeding in their respective conference.
The 49ers, Raiders, Saints, and Chargers take the spotlight this weekend. These teams will be fighting for their playoff lives, and fans should be treated to some spectacular games as a result. There’s no way of knowing what will happen, so sit back, enjoy the RedZone watching, and let’s gear up for some playoff football.
Last Week: 12-4 Straight Up, 6-10 ATS
Running Total: 169-85-1 Straight Up, 134-120 ATS
Saturday Games:
Chiefs (-10.5) at Broncos
A tough loss in Cincy last week has the Chiefs back in Wild Card Weekend. A win in Denver paired with a Titans loss could get KC back to the bye, but the odds aren’t looking great. Playing on Saturday instead of Sunday, Kansas City will be looking at this as a must-win as they won’t know what Tennessee has done yet. For that reason, I’m thinking Pat Mahomes gets it done.
The Pick: Chiefs 24-16
Cowboys (-6.5) at Eagles
Both of these teams are firmly in the postseason, and the only thing at stake here is NFC seeding position. Just when we thought the Cowboys’ offense may be back, it regressed again versus a good Arizona defense. If the Cowboys can’t get the ball moving against playoff-level teams, it could be a short January. This will be a good test for how ready Dallas is, and I think they’ll be up for it.
The Pick: Cowboys 31-26
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Bengals at Browns (-6)
No Joe Burrow or Joe Mixon for the Bengals in the season finale. This tells me that the Bengals are comfortable moving to the 4 seed in the AFC, as the Bills will likely beat the Jets this week and could jump Cincy if they lose to Cleveland. Even with Brandon Allen at QB, I still think the Bengals aren’t getting a lot of respect with this line. Case Keenum is starting for the Browns, and the Cincy defense should get after him. If Ja’Marr Chase can make plays after the catch like he did last week, it doesn’t really matter who’s throwing him the ball as long as it gets there.
The Pick: Bengals 21-17
Packers (-4) at Lions
. With the top seed in the NFC already clinched, there’s really nothing on the line for Green Bay except for player health. Aaron Rodgers says he will be playing, but it’s unlikely he takes every snap, and this feels like a “Get Jordan Love Some Reps” game. The outcome here won’t mean much to either team, but maybe the Lions could pull some momentum into next season with a win over the league’s best. Get ready for Amon-Ra St. Brown to go very early in your fantasy drafts next year.
The Pick: Packers 27-16
Bears at Vikings (-4.5)
This game is another meaningless one, as neither team is playing for anything and both are focused towards their futures. It could be the last game we see Mike Zimmer coach the Vikings in as well. His time in Minneapolis has been a mixed bag, and I think a fresh start in the Twin Cities would be welcomed by most parties. Kirk Cousins leads them to a win to end the year.
The Pick: Vikings 30-24
Football Team (-7) at Giants
The Giants are quickly becoming the most laughable organization in the NFL. Everything going on with Joe Judge is confusing, and the results on the field are even worse. This offense cannot move the ball, and there are few signs that things will get better any time soon. Washington wins this one and the Giants enter the offseason with more questions than answers.
The Pick: Washington 25-13
Colts (-15.5) at Jaguars
The Colts need a victory in Jacksonville to remain in the playoffs. Interestingly enough, Indianapolis hasn’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. The teams are a little different this season, and I think that history is likely irrelevant, but it is definitely interesting. Jonathan Taylor has put this team on his back all season. He does it again to take the Colts back to the playoffs.
The Pick: Colts 31-13
Steelers at Ravens (-5.5)
Another week of me writing that Lamar Jackson’s status for Sunday is up in the air. Tyler Huntley has filled in admirably for the Ravens this season, but you have to imagine things would’ve been a lot better for this group had Lamar been healthy all season long. Both of these groups have a less than 10% chance of making the postseason, but don’t tell them that. A fierce rivalry with something on the line for both teams means this game should come down to the wire, regardless of who suits up. I’ll roll with the Ravens in a close one.
The Pick: Ravens 26-23
Titans (-10.5) at Texans
It’s a simple scenario for the Titans. Win, get the one seed, get Derrick Henry back for the Divisional Round. That would be a picture perfect outcome to a grueling season for Mike Vrabel’s group. They’ve flown under the radar all season and now hold a great opportunity to be in the driver’s seat of the AFC. This Texans squad has already beaten them once this season, so don’t expect the Titans to take the matchup lightly. I do think this will be close, but Vrabel will have his guys ready for the stakes.
The Pick: Titans 33-27
Saints (-4.5) at Falcons
The Saints need a win in Atlanta, paired with a San Francisco loss to the Rams to slide into the field. It isn’t a crazy scenario, and you can bet Sean Payton has a gameplan ready to go for this one. This season has been all over the place for New Orleans, but I do think there’s enough talent on this team to get this one done and sweat out what’s going on over in Los Angeles.
The Pick: Saints 25-22
Jets at Bills (-16.5)
The Bills have the potential to move even higher up the AFC standings if a few things go their way this weekend. Among those would be them beating the Jets. This feels like a no-brainer.
The Pick: Bills 35-14
49ers at Rams (-4.5)
One of the games with the most on the line. The Rams are in control of the NFC West right now, but a loss here paired with a Cardinals win would bump them back to Wild Card status. Meanwhile, the 49ers have a “Win and In” game, meaning the playoffs have officially started for them. It could be Jimmy G or Trey Lance at QB for the Niners this week, and I think that matters quite a bit. Going on the road in a must-win is tough for anyone, let alone a rookie who hasn’t played every game this year. I can’t confidently pick the Niners, even though they did dominate the first matchup of the year.
The Pick: Rams 31-27
Patriots (-6.5) at Dolphins
The Dolphins have been eliminated, but they can still play a little bit of spoiler to their division rivals. With a win, Miami could bump New England down even further in Wild Card positioning, even potentially setting them up with a first round trip to Arrowhead. I’m sure Mac Jones would rather avoid that in his first playoff game. Miami got the best of the Pats at the start of the season. I can’t see it happening twice in a year under Bill Belichick’s watch.
The Pick: Patriots 26-20
Seahawks at Cardinals (-6.5)
The Cardinals will certainly have an eye on the 49ers-Rams matchup. If things are looking good in LA, Arizona will get very loud. I don’t see the Cards losing to the Seahawks, so they’ll just have to hope for the best in the situation out of their own control.
The Pick: Cardinals 30-20
Panthers at Bucs (-7.5)
It will be very interesting to see how the Bucs come out of the gates following the week of the AB drama. If there’s a guy in the league that knows how to get his team ready for the postseason, it’s Tom Brady. I think the Bucs will set aside any distractions, take care of a Panthers team that had a nightmare season, and begin their push for another Super Bowl.
The Pick: Bucs 28-17
Sunday Night: Chargers (-3) at Raiders
The Playoffs start now for these two AFC West rivals. The winner is in, the loser is out. The stage is set for what should be a great game. What an opportunity for Justin Herbert. He’s on the cusp of being talked about with the game’s top QBs. If he thrives in primetime, the discussion will get even louder.
The Pick: Chargers 31-28
Award Picks
MVP: Aaron Rodgers
*Preseason Pick: Patrick Mahomes
It’s been a controversial season for Rodgers for a number of reasons, but there’s been no denying his play on the field. Rodgers has put together one of the most efficient quarterback seasons of all time and has the Packers sitting pretty at the top of the NFC yet again. He’s going back to back here.
DPOTY: TJ Watt
*Preseason Pick: TJ Watt
Watt simply dominated games this entire season. Despite struggling with some lingering issues throughout the year, TJ made an impact every time he stepped on the field. He set the Steelers single season sack record and should win this award unanimously.
OPOTY: Jonathan Taylor
*Preseason Pick: Travis Kelce
A remarkable season for both Taylor and Cooper Kupp. I give Taylor the slight edge because of what he means to the Colts. Without JT, there’s a legitimate shot the Colts are nowhere near the playoff hunt. With him, they look like a scary matchup for anyone.
DROTY: Micah Parsons
*Preseason Pick: Micah Parsons
The easiest choice on the ballot. Parsons was a legit contender for defensive player of the year, and looks like a future superstar for the Cowboys. What a first season for the Penn State product.
OROTY: Ja’Marr Chase
*Preseason Pick: Zach Wilson
This could’ve gone a few ways… until last week. Chase locked up this award in my opinion with his performance against the Chiefs. He proved multiple times this year that he has gamebreaking ability. He should be Joe Burrow’s top target for a long time.
Comeback POTY: Joe Burrow
*Preseason Pick: Dak Prescott
Speaking of Burrow… How about the end of the year he’s put together. Coming back off a season-ending injury, Burrow appears to have alleviated any concerns about his future as a franchise QB. He’s been fantastic for Cincy and has delivered a division title in only his 2nd year.
COTY: Matt LaFleur
*Preseason Pick: Matt Rhule
Well, I definitely missed on my preseason pick here. I think this is a real toss-up between a few coaches. Mike Vrabel seems to be the popular pick, and I can’t deny what a great job he’s done with the Titans. LaFleur just seems to be the guy for me, though. Navigating everything that the Packers have dealt with off the field this season is no easy task. Does it help when Aaron Rodgers is your QB? Sure. Could Mike McCarthy have done this? I don’t think so.
