The Armed Forces Bowl is going to be a great matchup between the Big 12 and the Mountain West. We have the Baylor Bears going up against the Air Force Falcons. Baylor is coming into this game on a three game losing streak, while Air Force has won their last four games and six out of their last eight. Baylor is a 3.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 43.5. Here is my betting preview for Thursday’s game.
Baylor Bears
Baylor comes with a thing to prove after losing three straight to Kansas State, TCU, and Texas. Quarterback Blake Shapen is the leader of this Baylor offense. Shapen, who is a sophomore, threw for 2,602 passing yards to go along with 16 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Bears average 440 total yards of offense per game and 194.1 of them come off the ground. They also average 33.6 points per game as well. Their big rushing leader is Richard Reese who averages 5.1 yards per carry. He also rushed for 962 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Baylor takes on a tough defense in Air Force and this Bears offense needs to be clicking early and often in order to win this one.
Defensively, the Bears are good against the run. They allow 137.6 rushing yards per game (83rd) in the country. Baylor allows 26.4 points per game defensively as well. This defense will have to defend the triple option which is something that they have not had to plan for all season long. If they stop Air Force’s run game, they have a real good shot to win this game. The number they want to keep Air Force at in rushing yards is around 200. Air Force averages just over 200 rushing yards per game in their three losses this season. Baylor needs to keep them at that number to have a chance in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Air Force Falcons
The Air Force Falcons won nine games this season with the triple option offense. They are the number one team in the country with 331.5 rushing yards per game. Air Force also averages 27.7 points per game as well. The Falcons are led by leading rusher Brad Roberts. Roberts rushed for 1,612 rushing yards (3rd in the country) to go along with 15 rushing touchdowns (t-11th). Air Force also has quarterback Haazig Daniels and running back John Lee Eldridge III create a three-headed rushing monster for the Falcons. Each one of those three players averaged 5 or more yards per carry (Daniels 5, Roberts 5.2, Eldridge III 7.9). If Air Force’s offense is going to be successful then these three need to get going early.
Defensively, Air Force brings one of the best defenses in the nation. Air Force is top five in passing yards allowed per game and total yards of offense allowed per game. The Falcons also allow less than 100 rushing yards per game as well (16th in the country). If the Falcons are going to win this game they will need to continue to dominate on the defensive side of the football. They give up 13.3 points per game and allow opponents to convert on third down 30.2 percent of the time. All the numbers provided show how good of a defense the Air Force defense is.
Betting Trends
-Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 neutral site games.
-Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games overall.
-Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
-Under is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games following a ATS win.
The Don’s Armed Forces Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is Air Force +3.5. I truly think that Air Force can win this game outright. The bowl games mean a lot more to the academy schools, so I expect Air Force to be locked in and ready to go in this one. My lean is the under, I think both offenses are going to try and control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. Take the Falcons and the points and ride the team who have won their last three bowl games.
