It’s Christmas Eve and I know that I love to celebrate the holidays by sitting on the couch and watching the Hawaii Bowl. We have an interesting matchup between Middle Tennessee State and San Diego State. The C-USA is going up against the Mountain West. Middle Tennessee State comes in winning three straight games, while San Diego State has won five out of their last seven games. San Diego State is a 6.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 48.5.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
The Blue Raiders pulled off a massive upset against the University of Miami earlier in the season. It was an even more impressive feat because they did it on the road. Middle Tennessee State averages 267.2 passing yards per game (83rd in the nation). The Blue Raiders average 29.2 points per game (t-59th in the nation) in 2022. They are led by quarterback Chase Cunningham. Cunningham threw for 2,920 passing yards to go along with 19 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. Their leading receiver is Jaylin Lane who has 59 receptions to go along with 829 receiving yards and four touchdowns. When the Blue Raiders offense gets rolling, it is hard to stop them.
Defensively, the Blue Raiders rank 49th in the nation in rushing yards per game (121.9). Middle Tennessee State gives up 433.1 total yards of offense per game. They also give up 28.1 points per game. The Blue Raiders need their defense to step up in a huge way in order to get the job done against San Diego State at the Hawaii Bowl.
San Diego State Aztecs
The San Diego State Aztecs were a very interesting team in 2022. They won seven games and their offense didn’t put up crazy numbers this season. They average 170.9 passing yards per game which ranks 221st in the nation. The Aztecs put up 21.3 points per game and only convert on third down less than 30 percent of the time. San Diego State is led by quarterback Jalen Mayden. Mayden has thrown for 1,721 passing yards to go along with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Here is a crazy stat for the Aztecs: they don’t have anyone with over 100 rushing attempts this season. San Diego State also doesn’t have a wide out with over 40 receptions this season as well. These numbers don’t give me confidence in the Aztecs.
Defensively is where the Aztecs are at their best. They give up just a little over 20 poinnts per game and they rank in the top 100 in every yardage per game stat. Rushing yards (64th), passing yards (79th) and total yards (t-70th). They held six of their last seven opponents under 30 points per game. San Diego State has yielded scores on less than 68 percent of opponents trips inside the red zone which ranks 4th in the country. If the Aztecs want to win the Hawaii Bowl, the defense will be the big reason why.
Betting Trends
-Over is 5-0 in Middle Tennessee’s last 5 bowl games.
-Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
-Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 December games.
-Over is 4-1 in the Aztecs last 5 December games.
The Don’s Hawaii Bowl Best Bet
My official play is Middle Tennesse State +6.5. I don’t think San Diego State is going to put up points offensively. The Blue Raiders can for sure keep it within this number and even win this game outright. My lean in this one is under 48.5. Both defenses are very good, but everything goes differently on the island. That is why I am locking in the Blue Raiders with the points to head back to school with a Hawaii Bowl victory.
