We have finally made it to the first Sunday of the 2023 NFL season. A full slate of NFL games on a Sunday afternoon is just what the doctor has ordered. Last season was a successful season as my record was here below.
We also had the Lions on Thursday night to start the season off on a 1-0 note. Now we have a full slate of games to go through, and here are my three NFL best bets for week one.
Carolina vs Atlanta (-3.5) O/U 39.5 1 PM EST
We have an NFC South clash between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons. Both teams enter a new era for starting quarterbacks and one of these guys will start the season off with a 1-0 record. Carolina has shifted things around and has some veteran guys that are willing to help this team win right now. Adding Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen helps Bryce Young in his rookie campaign. I like the direction that the Panthers offense is going and we will see it on Sunday afternoon.
Atlanta gives Desmond Ridder the key to the offense and he is ready to show that he is a starter in this league. The Falcons added Bijan Robinson who is the best rookie running back entering the 2023 season. Robinson is going to be a focal point of the offense and should end up in the conversation for offensive rookie of the year. Atlanta has had success against Carolina as they have won 11 out of their last 15 games against the Falcons. The recent success they have had against the Panthers is why they are the favorite in this matchup.
Betting Trends
-Carolina is 5-10 ATS in last 15 meetings against Atlanta.
-Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
-The under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams.
-Falcons 6-2 straight up in last 8 home games against Carolina.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the Panthers +3.5 -115 for one unit. Carolina has improved offensively and I think that they can keep it close with Atlanta and they have a chance to win the game outright. Falcons are getting 62% of the bets placed on them. They are a public play and I think that the Panthers either lose by a field goal or they win this game outright.
Green Bay vs Chicago (-1.5) O/U 41.5 4:25 PM EST
This one-sided rivalry might become a legitimate rivalry again. We have the Green Bay Packers who are entering the Jordan Love era going up against an up and coming Bears team. Green Bay comes into a season not having Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback in a very long time. They will be without Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs might be out as well. Green Bay’s offense will rely heavily on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
The Bears are ready to get back into the postseason. Justin Fields is poised for a breakout season and it should start against the Packers. He is going to have to start his breakout season with a big game against their rival. They added DJ Moore in the off-season to give Fields a number one receiver. I think this duo is going to be deadly and this is going to be the coming out party for them.
Betting Trends
-Green Bay is 4-8 straight up in their last 12 road games.
-Green Bay is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against Chicago.
-Bears are 1-12 straight up in their last 13 home games against Green Bay.
-The over is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams.
The Don’s Play
I am taking Chicago moneyline at -126 odds for one unit. Aaron Rodgers is gone and the Bears are finally ready to dominate the rivalry. Green Bay has some receivers that are out and I think the Bears defensively are going to cause Jordan Love some issues. Chicago’s offense gets hot early and the Bears start 1-0 for the third time in the last four seasons.
Dallas (-3.5) vs New York Giants O/U 45.5 8:20 PM EST
An NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and the Giants is the first Sunday Night Football game this season. We have a Dallas Cowboys team looking to continue their regular season success, while the Giants are looking to build off of last season’s success. The quarterback battle should be an interesting one here. Dak needs to limit his interception numbers and Danny Dimes is looking to prove last season wasn’t a fluke.
Both defenses are going to show up in this one. While the defenses show up, the offenses are going to have to adjust. This matchup is going to come down to what head coach can make the better adjustments.
Betting Trends
-Dallas is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Giants.
-Dallas is 5-1 straight up in their last 6 road games against the Giants.
-Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
-Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.
The Don’s Play
I am taking the Giants +3.5 -112 for one unit. The Cowboys have had their number, but I think the Giants are ready for this matchup. If this was at Dallas, I would have taken the Cowboys in this spot. New York’s defense is going to create havoc for Dak Prescott. The Giants can win this game, but I don’t see them losing by more than a field goal.
