We are going to do things a little bit differently this week. The Don’s Best Bets are usually for Saturday games only. However, I am going to give you a best bet article for every slate of games from Tuesday to Saturday for Week 7. 3-1 (+1.9u) was the best bet record last Saturday. A half point away from a 4-0 sweep of the board. Now the best bet record is set at 15-11 (+3.93u) on the season. There are plenty of games this week to talk about. Here is my best bet for the Tuesday slate of games in week number seven.
Liberty (-6.5) vs Jacksonville State (O/U 56.5)
These two teams come into this on a multiple game winning streak. The Flames have won their first five games of the season while the Gamecocks have won their last 3 games. Liberty has put up some great numbers offensively in their first season without Hugh Freeze. The Flames average 495 total yards of offense per game (16th in the nation). This offense also converts on 49.2% of their third down attempts which is (24th in the nation).
However, the bread and butter of this Liberty offense is their rushing attack. They average 255.2 rushing yards per game which is t-7th in the country. Liberty’s rushing attack will have their hands full with Jacksonville State’s rush defense which allows 112.7 rushing yards per game. This is going to be the focal point of this game for the Flames offense. If they can run the ball consistently, the Gamecocks defense will have a tough time stopping Liberty’s offense.
The Gamecocks offense averages 214.7 rushing yards per game (24th in the nation). Jacksonville State’s offense is led by running back Malik Jackson who averages 5.7 yards per carry. They are going up against a Liberty defense that is ranked top 100th in the country in total yards of offense allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, and rushing yards allowed per game. This Flames defense is no joke and the Gamecocks are going to have to bring a great game plan into this one.
Betting Trends
-Liberty is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
-Liberty unders are 8-4 in their last 12 games overall.
-Jacksonville State are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
-The under is 7-3 in the Gamecocks’ last ten games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I am taking the under 56.5 at -110 odds for 1 unit. These teams are good defensively as they allow 35.5 points per game combined. I think these offenses are going to struggle and this will be a defensive battle. This game will finish as a 17-14 score in my honest opinion. Both offenses are good at running the football which means a lot of time management will happen in this one. This under is an easy play to start the week off with a win.
