Before the season kicked off, the Penn State Nittany Lions were my pick to win the national championship. Their defense is elite, and I jokingly said Drew Allar could be an elite option as well. I was half right. The Nittany Lions are currently ranked second in total defense, behind only this weekend’s foe Michigan. Penn State’s defense is great at all three levels, led by LB Abdul Carter, sack master Adisa Isaac, and shutdown CB Kalen King. The pieces are all there, but the offense was no help in their 20-12 loss to Ohio State. James Franklin failed his first test of 2023. But can he finally win a big game this weekend?

Franklin by the numbers

Since arriving at Penn State in 2014, Franklin has been damn good. He is 86-37 overall and 54-31 in Big 10 play. For most programs, that is more than acceptable. And to be honest, I’m not a Penn State fan so I’m not sure how the majority of the program feels about Franklin. I know if he was Ryan Day he would be burned at the stake by now. As a Syracuse fan, Franklin would be a dream come true. Sign me up for 10 wins a season, a constant New Year’s Six bowl, and at least the hope of a national championship game.

The big games have been the problem. Franklin is 12-25 against Top 25 teams. The real trouble, however, comes against the Top 10. In those games, Franklin is 3-17. Penn State won the Big 10 in 2016 and during that season beat two Top 10 teams in No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Wisconsin. They also lost two games to top 10 teams in No. 9 USC and No. 4 Michigan. That means that since 2016, Franklin is 1-13 against Top 10 teams with his lone win coming in last year’s Rose Bowl against Utah. That Utah team was without starting QB Cam Rising.

Franklin Against Michigan and Ohio State

Michigan and Ohio State have been a huge thorn in the side of Franklin. This explains why 2016 was the lone Big 10 title for the Nittany Lions despite the overall positive record. The Buckeyes have Franklin’s number to the tune of a 10-1 record, while Michigan holds a 6-3 advantage. Ryan Day is DESPISED by Ohio State fans and is 12-6 against Top 10 opponents. Harbaugh is just 5-13 but did inherit a much messier program. Lately, the Wolverines have picked up the slack. Now, in Franklin’s defense, his one win over Ohio State was truly epic.

Can he beat No. 3 Michigan this Saturday?

Michigan looks unstoppable this year. They have the nation’s best defense and their closest win was 30-3 over ECU Week 1 without Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. J.J. McCarthy looks legit and Blake Corum is doing Blake Corum things to the tune of 649 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. Michigan has even used an ongoing sign-stealing scandal as fuel. That us against the world mentality could lead to a national championship.

This is a line in the sand game for my relationship with Penn State. This line SCREAMS at me. After all I listed about Michigan, they are only 4 point favorites. I know the game is in Happy Valley, but you would expect Michigan to be favored by 6-7 points here. Therefore I am IGNORING my entire article and backing Penn State and James Franklin with one unit on Penn State +4 and a half sprinkle on PSU ML. Is this smart? No. It is moronic. BUT, Franklin is 3-6 against Michigan in his career. That’s actually a lot better than his Ohio State record. That home crowd is going to be bumping to Mo Bamba. Michigan has not played a real team yet. It’s all coming up Nittany Lions this weekend (or else James Franklin is DEAD to me).

Also, this is me holding myself accountable. I told the “Is It Saturday Yet?” group chat to not allow me to bet Penn State on Saturday morning. By taking it on Friday, we are in the clear.