The 2023 New Mexico Bowl is a great matchup between the 10-4 New Mexico State Aggies and the 8-4 Fresno State Bulldogs. The Aggies are coming off a C-USA Championship loss to Liberty. Before that, they won eight straight games including a win at Auburn. New Mexico State has 10 wins in a season for the first time since 1960. The Aggies are 4-0-1 all time in bowl games. The Fresno State Bulldogs come into this one with three straight losses. Fresno State is 15-14 all time in 29 bowl games, but they have won their last four dating back to 2017. In those four wins they have a New Mexico Bowl victory in there as well. New Mexico State is a 3.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 51.5. This is going to be a good battle and with that being said here is my preview for the 2023 New Mexico Bowl. 

New Mexico State Aggies

The New Mexico State Aggies went above and beyond expectations in 2023. A 10-4 record and a C-USA conference title appearance was something I didn’t see coming, especially after a Week Zero loss to UMass. However, this team recovered and have shown great flashes all season long. Offensively, they average 28.7 points per game to go along with 203.1 rushing yards per game (21st in the nation). This offense goes as well as quarterback Diego Pavia. Pavia has thrown for 2,915 passing yards to go along with 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He is also their leading rusher with 853 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry and 6 rushing touchdowns. One loss that they will have offensively is wide receiver Trent Hudson who had 10 receiving touchdowns this season. Hudson is entering the transfer portal and will not play in the bowl game. This offense is going to have to rely heavily on Pavia’s skill to try and beat Fresno State.

Defensively, the Aggies are average. They allow 21.8 points per game to go along with 400.5 total yards of offense allowed per game. New Mexico State has given up 30+ points only three times this season, but they are 0-3 in those games. The Aggies defensively have been good against their opposition when it comes to keeping them off the scoreboard. One thing they will need to do in this game is to create turnovers which they have struggled to do all season long. If they can create turnovers, the Aggies extend their bowl winning streak for sure. 

Fresno State Bulldogs

This Fresno State team has struggled since winning eight out of their first nine games. Their head coach Jeff Tedford stepped away due to health concerns, so there will be an interim head coach. Offensively, they have lost starting left tackle Jacob Spomer for the season. However, this Bulldogs offense did average 29.9 points per game while averaging 397.9 total yards of offense per game as well (96th in the nation). They are led by quarterback Mikey Keene who threw for 2,596 passing yards to go along with 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. As good as Keene was, they got the passing game going due to the success that running back Malik Sherrod has had in 2023. Sherrod rushed for 877 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry and 9 rushing touchdowns. If this Fresno State offense is going to have success in the New Mexico Bowl, they are going to need their running game to get going early on.

Defensively, the Bulldogs started off the season strong but they have struggled in their last three games. On average, they give up 24.6 points per game and allow opponents to convert on just under 40% of their third down attempts. The struggle that they have defensively is stopping the run. They allow 168.2 rushing yards per game which is t-183rd in the country. Fresno State will be without starting defensive tackle Gavriel Lightfoot, who was limited to four snaps in the last two games, as well as safety Chrishawn Gordon and linebacker Raymond Scott, who are entering the transfer portal. One thing that Fresno State has done well defensively is creating turnovers. They have 16 interceptions and 6 forced fumbles with 3 fumble recoveries. If they can force this Aggies offense to turn the ball over, then they will be in a good spot to win the New Mexico Bowl. 

Betting Trends

-New Mexico State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

-The under is 9-3 in New Mexico State’s last 12 games overall.

-The over is 4-2 in Fresno State’s last 6 games overall.

-Fresno State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. 

The Don’s Best Bet

I have one official play for this New Mexico Bowl matchup. Under 51.5 -110 for one unit. New Mexico State has been good all season long at covering the spread, but the thought of Fresno State wanting to play for their interim head coach scares me from that number. I would lean towards New Mexico State -3.5 if you want to take a side on this game. However, I just have my doubts about a team like New Mexico State showing up for a game like this after a conference championship loss. Take the under 51.5 for this New Mexico Bowl matchup.