The 2023 First Responder Bowl takes place at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The matchup puts the 7-5 Texas State Bobcats up against the 6-6 Rice Owls. Texas State comes into this one losing three out of their last five games. The Bobcats have become bowl eligible for the first time in school history since joining the FBS back in 2012. Rice comes into this one winning their final two games to become bowl eligible in back-to-back seasons since they were bowl eligible three years in a row from 2012-2014. The Owls have appeared in 13 bowl games and have a 7-6 record in those games. The Bobcats come into this one as a 3.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 59.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 First Responder Bowl.
Texas State Bobcats
The Texas State Bobcats have put together a great season in 2023. Offensively, the Bobcats average 36 points per game (t-16th) and average 482.1 total yards of offense per game (12th). The Bobcats have TJ Finley at quarterback and he has been great for them this season. Finley has thrown for 3,287 passing yards to go along with 24 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has been the signal caller that this team has needed for many seasons. However, running back Ismail Mahdi needs to get some credit for how good this offense is as well. Mahdi rushed for 1,209 rushing yards to go along with 6.1 yards per carry and 10 rushing touchdowns. This offense should be due for a huge day against a suspect Rice defense.
Defensively, the Bobcats are not even as close to as good as their offense is. They allow 33.8 points per game and give up 435.8 total yards of offense per game. Texas State allowed 30+ points in eight of their games this season. They have a 4-4 record in those games and they are lucky that their offense is as dynamic as they are. If the Bobcats offense wasn’t good, this team wouldn’t even have sniffed the bowl game. Texas State’s defense is going to give up points, but if they can make the key stop then they will be in a good spot to win this game.
Rice Owls
The Rice Owls struggled for years, but they are bowl eligible in back to back seasons. Offensively, this Owls team averages 30.3 points per game to go along with 391.8 total yards of offense per game. They will be without starting quarterback J.T. Daniels, who medically retired. AJ Padgett will be the one to likely get the start in this one. Padgett’s best target will be wideout Luke McCaffrey. McCaffrey has 68 receptions to go along with 963 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns on the season. He was JT Daniels’ number one target and he is due for a field day against a bad Texas State defense. Look for McCaffrey to be the name you hear over and over offensively.
Defensively, the Owls struggled in 2023. They allow 26.7 points per game and 381.7 total yards of offense. Rice has given up 30+ points in seven games in 2023. They have a 1-6 record in those games. The Owls are 5-0 in games that they allow under 30 points in a game. That is the key target number that they need to keep the Bobcats high-powered offense off the board. Rice is going to need to give their best effort if they want to walk out with a bowl victory for the first time since 2014.
Betting Trends
-Texas State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
-Texas State is 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games as a favorite.
-Rice is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
-The under is 4-2 in Rice’s last 6 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
In this game I have two plays here and they will be easy ones to cash. They are over 59.5 -110 and Texas State -3.5 -108 for one unit each. Both of these offenses are going to have their way with the opposing defenses. I think Texas State’s offense is better than Rice’s. The Bobcats have better weapons and I think they can get to the point where they blow this Rice defense out of the water. Ride both of these plays here as I plan on taking a nice trip to the cash counter.
