The upcoming clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans this Saturday is all set to be a thrilling encounter, with the Ravens entering the game as heavy favorites. The Ravens are a formidable force, having won more games than any other team this season and led by the likely MVP, Lamar Jackson. They’ve proven their mettle by effortlessly defeating top-tier teams in the regular season and are pegged as one of the favorites in the Super Bowl odds.
On the other hand, despite facing a steep uphill challenge, the Texans are not backing down. Their rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud, is expected to have a busy day ahead. If he can put up numbers like he did last week against the Browns, the Texans offense could give the Ravens defense fits.
Whether Stroud’s potential game script can overcome the challenging matchup remains to be seen. This article offers an in-depth analysis of this much-anticipated matchup, looking at picks, odds, and predictions for the Divisional Round.
Texans vs Ravens odds
With the Ravens being a 9.5-point favorite, the Houston Texans’ fate depends heavily on their quarterback, C.J. Stroud. A spike in his passing frequency, particularly in the latter part of the game, could be a game-changer. Stroud’s odds of exceeding 35.5 pass attempts are promising, considering the pressure the Texans will likely face from the dominant Ravens. This mirrors the scenario from the previous week, where Stroud managed a commendable performance despite being a 2.5-point underdog.
The Ravens’ defense has been strong this year, but they aren’t invincible. The Los Angeles Rams, who pose a similar passing threat as the Texans, racked up 31 points in Baltimore in Week 14. The Ravens also give up the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt in the league (4.5), and the Texans’ Devin Singletary has helped uplift the team’s running game in recent weeks.
The Ravens carry the No. 1 seed, which has won the Divisional Round 75 percent of the time. Since the playoffs expanded to seven teams, the top seed is 4-2, with both No. 1 seeds losing in the 2022 Playoffs (Titans and Packers). The last time the Ravens were the top seed, however, they lost in the 2020 Divisional Round to Buffalo. The Texans, on the other hand, have never advanced to the AFC Championship.
To sum up, game script and pass volume will likely be the deciding factors, irrespective of who is under center. In this faceoff, the Houston Texans’ odds could be significantly impacted if Stroud can find success hitting his favorite target Nico Collins, who has surpassed 96 yards in each of the last four games Stroud has played a full game.
The weather must also be factored into the equation. The current forecast calls for a high temperature of 27 degrees on Saturday with winds of about 15 to 20 mph. This could hinder the deep passing game, forcing Stroud and Jackson to focus more on short passes and the running game. The Texans haven’t faced many mobile quarterbacks this season, so it’s hard to judge how they will be able to handle Jackson.
Ravens Betting Info
- The Ravens have a solid track record this season, boasting an 11-6-0 ATS.
- When playing as at least 9.5-point favorites, the Ravens have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS).
- Eight out of the Ravens’ 17 games this season have exceeded the total.
- The over/under in the upcoming game with the Texans is projected at 43.5 points, 0.5 higher than the average total in Ravens games this season.
- The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives the Ravens an 81.8% chance to win, reinforcing their position as the favorites.
Texans Betting Info
- The Texans are entering the game with a 22.7% chance to win, based on the implied probability of the moneyline. This underdog status reflects the challenging game that lies ahead.
- The Texans have a 9-8-0 Against the Spread (ATS) record during the regular season and a perfect 1-0 record in the playoffs. Despite the odds, their ability to cover the spread suggests resilience.
- During the regular season, six Texans’ games hit the over, a trend that continued in their postseason game.
- The average total points per game involving the Texans in the regular season was 42.8, just 0.7 points less than the over/under for the upcoming game, which is 43.5 points.
Conclusion
The Divisional Round game between the Ravens and the Texans is shaping up to be an exciting, high-stakes encounter. With their dominant season, the Ravens enter as heavy favorites, but the Texans show promise, especially with their resilient quarterback, C.J. Stroud.
The game’s outcome could hinge on pass volume and script. Betting trends suggest a potential high-scoring encounter, but as with any game, it will ultimately be decided on the field. Regardless of the result, fans on both sides can expect a thrilling game filled with strategic play and possibly surprising conclusions.
