The Holiday Bowl is always a bowl game that I look forward to. This is the first time in two seasons that I will be able to watch this bowl game. We have a power five conference showdown in this one with two talented offenses going head to head against one another. The 2022 Holiday bowl will be played between the Oregon Ducks and the UNC Tar Heels. Oregon has won two out of their last four games overall. While UNC has lost three straight games including the ACC title game. The Ducks are a 13-point favorite with the over/under set at 75 which is the highest total in all of the bowl games. With that being said here is my betting preview on the Holiday Bowl.
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks look revitalized in Dan Lanning’s first year with the team. Oregon averages 39.7 points per game (9th) and 509.3 total yards of offense per game as well (7th). The Ducks are led by quarterback Bo Nix. I have been critical of Bo Nix in the past, but he showed out in Eugene this season. Nix threw for 3,389 passing yards to go along with 27 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Nix also added 508 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.
The Ducks were very thankful that Nix came to Eugene via the transfer portal last season. They have two running backs that rushed for over 700 rushing yards this season. Mar’Keise Irving had 903 rushing yards on 6.4 yards per carry and 3 rushing touchdowns. Noah Whittington rushed for 754 yards on 5.9 yards per carry and 5 rushing touchdowns. Oregon’s dual-threat offense will light up the scoreboard tonight at Petco Park. The Tar Heels’ defense will have a tough time stopping them.
Defensively, the Ducks are great at stopping the run. They only allow 125.5 rushing yards per game (t-58th in the country). Every other aspect though they have struggled from time to time. They allow just under 490 total yards of offense per game. Oregon also allows opponents to convert on third down 48.1% of the time. Look for the Ducks to showout defensively against this Tar Heels offense in this Holiday Bowl matchup.
UNC Tar Heels
The Tar Heels were a team on nobody’s radar this season after Sam Howell left for the NFL Draft. However, this Tar Heel offense picked right up where they left off last season. They average 35 points per game and 317.2 passing yards per game (11th). UNC’s passing attack is led by Drake Maye. Maye threw for 4,115 passing yards (4th in the nation) and had 35 passing touchdowns to go along with 7 interceptions. He also added 653 rushing yards to go along with 7 rushing touchdowns. Maye accounted for 42 total touchdowns from UNC this year.
One bad thing for UNC is that Maye’s top target Josh Downs is preparing for the NFL Draft and won’t play in this one. They could go on the ground and use running back Elijah Green who broke onto the scene late in the season. However, Oregon is very good against the run. I think UNC needs to game plan well because if they rely on Maye and solely Maye it will be a long night for the Tar Heel offense.
Defensively, the Tar Heels give up 31 points per game. They also allow 447 total yards of offense per game (228th in the nation). The Tar Heels also give up 276.4 passing yards per game as well (244th). UNC’s defense has been down on their luck the past three games. They will need to bounce back in a huge way if they want to head back to Chapel Hill with the Holiday Bowl trophy.
Betting Trends
-Ducks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
-Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games following an ATS loss.
-Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 bowl games.
-Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
The Don’s Holiday Bowl Best Bet
My official play in this one is under 75. The Ducks offense is going to control this game early on. UNC is going to play catch up early, but they are going to struggle in this bowl game. I don’t like the Tar Heels chances in this one. My official lean is the Ducks -13. I think the Ducks are going to blow them out. They want to set the tone going into 2023 because they have a good team coming. Take the under in this one as I rather die on the hill of taking the under in the highest over/under of the bowl games than taking the over and it not even being close.
