For the past three years I have worked on building a college football model that is able to separate narrative from what is actually happening on the field. This model has been able to successfully predict winners and spreads for two years now, and the third iteration should be the best ever. My model, dubbed AGI, is based on previous year production, returning production, and recruiting rankings to predict how strong teams will be this year. Measured on a scale of expected points each team would score and allow against an average FBS team, the rankings are used against each team’s schedule to figure out three things: the amount of games each team is favored, a predicted score, and the win probability of each game. The mode’s ACC projections differ slightly from the Student Union ACC Rankings that you can find here.

The ACC has become a one-team league with the emergence of Clemson from the pack. They have built themselves into a national powerhouse that the rest of the league can just not compete with. That is why once again, my preseason ACC projections have them as the number one team in the conference. It’d be silly if it didn’t. Miami’s great defense may vault itself to the top under first-year head coach Manny Diaz, but if their quarterback play is lacking, they may not be a factor in the Coastal race.