Dear Members of the College Football Playoff Committee,
I’ll put it simply: It’s time to shake things up a little bit. 2020 has been the year of irregularities, and no sport has suffered more than college football. With the late starts, various cancellations, and significant opt-outs, people will view this season with an asterisk. With that perception existing, I’d like to make a suggestion. If there were ever a year to give a non-Power 5 team a shot in the playoffs, this is the one. Today, I will present my case as thoroughly as I can, and hopefully by the end of it, I’ll have convinced some others that this just makes too much sense.
Reason 1: This Season Has Already Been Crazy
The NBA had their bubble. The MLB managed their issues and finished their season on time. The NFL is on pace to finish out their planned schedule. College football hasn’t been as smooth. The ability for each conference to make different decisions regarding the length of their teams’ seasons has created a more difficult path to crowning a legitimate champion then we’ve seen in any other major sport this year.
The Pac-12 and Big Ten just started play last month. Contenders such as Clemson have seen games canceled in the middle of their season. We could be looking at the selection committee having to pick between a 7-0 team or an 11-1 team that simply played a longer season. No matter what the committee decides on, it’s going to be contested. Enter non-traditional teams.
For years we’ve heard the argument for putting a team such as UCF into the Playoff. “Let’s see if they can compete with the big boys, or if their record is simply a product of their schedule.” Why not test that theory out in a year where everyone’s schedule is messed up? Let’s give some new blood a chance.
Reason #2: There really aren’t that many dominant Power 5 teams this year.
Go take a look at the most recent AP Top 25 list and we’ll walk through this together. Let’s assume Alabama, Ohio State and either Notre Dame or Clemson are locks. If this is the case then there’s an opening for that fourth spot.
We’ll start by going the route that the selection committee typically does, which is with an SEC bias.
You’ll see Texas A&M and Florida as the options. A&M already has a 28 point loss to Alabama and, because they’re in the same division as the Crimson Tide, they have almost no shot at a conference championship. Florida, meanwhile, could present an interesting case if they were to win out and beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC title game. However, take a look at who already beat them. That’s right, A&M. Not only does that suggest that they’d have their hands full with Alabama, but it also creates a 3-way dilemma of one-loss teams in the SEC if they were to pull off the upset.
The next place to look would be at whoever is left out between Clemson and Notre Dame.
If Notre Dame were to win out it, would mean they beat Clemson again in the ACC Championship due to the Irish joining the conference for this year only (yet another irregular aspect to this odd season). This scenario would lock Notre Dame into the two-seed. It would also give Clemson a losing record against ranked teams this season. If Trevor Lawrence doesn’t make the difference, can we justify putting the Tigers in with almost no wins against formidable competition?
The flip side of this argument would be Clemson beating Notre Dame in the rematch. If this victory is convincing, you’d have a reasonable argument to knock Notre Dame down to #5. Notre Dame’s record against Top 25 competition would either be 2-1 or 1-2 depending on how their upcoming matchup with #25 North Carolina goes (A loss here would in my mind certainly knock them out). If Clemson handles them, there will be an argument that Notre Dame’s only true signature win this year was a home overtime win against a backup QB making his second start. That could be convincing.
To finish this section, we’ll look at the other Power 5 schools and see if there’s a team that jumps out.
With the Big Ten, SEC and ACC spoken for, that leaves the Big 12 and Pac-12. Starting in the Big 12, the highest ranked team we currently have is #14 Oklahoma. The Sooners have been hot as of late, but they’ve already got two losses on the schedule, including an inexcusable one to Kansas State.
Iowa State is right behind them at #15, but they’ve also got two losses on the docket, including a non-conference opener to Louisiana-Lafayette, a ranked non-Power 5 school…
The PAC 12’s best shot is probably #9 Oregon. Unfortunately for the Ducks, they’ve played even fewer games than most teams that started late. With only three games left on the regular season schedule, the best they could finish with a conference title win would be 7-0. That would likely include zero wins against ranked teams. Is that sample size good enough to justify a bid to the CFP?
The only other scenario that could come into play would be #11 Northwestern running the table and stunning Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. If this happens, the Wildcats will probably nab the final spot. For the sake of making this work, I’m gonna assume that won’t happen. If they make me eat my words, great. Northwestern getting in to the College Football Playoff would be as shocking and amazing as a non-Power Five school pulling it off. Go Cats.
Reason #3: There are Actually Some Really Good Non-Power Five Teams This Year
BYU and Cincinnati are the two non-traditional schools that would have a shot at getting some respect from the committee. I want to use this platform to give some love to Coastal Carolina and Marshall as well. These four teams are a combined 32-0 as I’m writing this, and they are all winning convincingly.
I’ll begin with the team I’d most like to see the committee extend an invite to: BYU
The Cougars are 9-0, and they are winning games by an average margin of 35 points. Those big margins haven’t come against complete jokes of football programs either, as they’ve handily defeated Boise State, Houston and Navy. This team is competitive, fun to watch, and they would help to cover the West Coast market that the absence of a Pac-12 school provides.
Cincinnati has the next best case if they can finish off their perfect season. They almost slipped up against UCF last week, but great football teams find ways to win, and that’s exactly what the Bearcats did. Even with the narrow victory last week, they still beat their opponents by an average of 26 points and that includes a 49-10 thrashing of Memphis and a 42-13 beatdown of 7-2 SMU. If Cincy can stick it to #24 Tulsa when they match up later this year, they’ll have no shortage of quality wins on their resume.
Coastal and Marshall are long shots. However, I’d still rather see either of them get the nod if BYU and Cincy slip up.
Marshall has won every game they’ve played this year by double-digits. Coastal has nearly done the same thing. Their only single-digit win was against Louisiana-Lafayette, who, as we previously mentioned, is no schmuck given that they beat a possible Big 12 Championship game participant in Iowa State. Both teams also beat Appalachian State, who have been darlings of the mid-major football community for years. It’s not as convincing an argument with these two, but I’m still going to vouch as heavily as I can for it.
Reason #4: There’s a Marketable Star QB
This point sways heavily toward my support for letting in BYU.
Zach Wilson is currently expected to go in the top three of next year’s NFL draft as a potential franchise quarterback. He is right up there on every draft board next to Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence.
This is incredibly rare territory for a non-Power 5 school to be in.
We’ve seen great quarterbacks come from non-traditional football schools, and we’ve also seen them put together remarkable seasons. It’s not every day that the two combine. The best comparison I can draw would be when Blake Bortles led UCF to an 11-1 record in the 2013-14 season. With no playoff system in place, UCF landed in the Fiesta Bowl. Surprise surprise, they hung 52 on the Baylor Bears and won.
Who knows if Wilson is just another Bortles in the NFL? What we do know is that his game works at this level. He 100% can compete against college competition. Also, if Clemson dethrones Notre Dame, we’d get to see Wilson, Fields, and Lawrence all on the game’s biggest stage. That’s a storyline the committee cannot ignore.
Proposal:
I understand that this plan relies on some what-ifs. I’m okay with that. If my underdogs end up dropping a game, you can ignore this request. However, should things play out the way I am suggesting, then here’s how I think this would look.
- Alabama (10-0)
- Ohio State (8-0) or Notre Dame (12-0)
- Clemson (10-1) or Ohio State (8-0)
- BYU (10-0)
Cutoff
- Notre Dame (11-1) or Cincinnati (11-0)
- Cincinnati (11-0) or Texas A&M (8-1)
It’s been a wacky year, so here’s to a wacky end to the college football season.
Sincerely,
Aaron L. Swartz
