We have unfortunately reached the tail-end of college football season, which means that there is only a finite amount of games to still bet. There are still a few games to watch during the holiday season though and there are plenty of lines to jump on early.

Obviously, things will change with coaches moving, players sitting out for the draft, and varying degrees of motivation for the bowl games, but I believe that I have identified some of the best bets of bowl season.

SMU -3.5 vs. FAU

Sonny Dykes and the Mustangs garnered a good amount of national attention this year when they started the season undefeated, eventually earning a national spotlight on College GameDay. After faltering against Memphis and Navy, SMU still managed to finish the year 10-2, the first time they have reached the ten-win mark since 1984. Texas transfer Shane Buechele threw for 3,626 yards with 33 TDs to 9 INTs.

Florida Atlantic had a good season themselves, winning ten games en route to a CUSA Championship. The looming factor in this game is that Owls Head Coach Lane Kiffin has departed for Ole Miss, leaving FAU without their head ball coach for this game.

Without adjusting for the absense of Kiffin, my numbers still have a spread on this game of about 6.5, in favor of SMU. I think that Buechele should be able to get the job done against the 73rd ranked passing defense by yards per game.

Boise State +3.5 (+155 ML) vs. Washington

In a similar situation, Chris Petersen has decided to step away from Washington. That motivation could be the one thing working against this pick. I believe that Boise State is the better team and they have had a strong season, but the Huskies could get up for this game.

The 12-1 Broncos had one of their strongest seasons under Bryan Harsin in his tenure there, since the departure of Petersen. With the only loss of the season being a three-point slip up at BYU, this team has shown that they do not go down easily. Boise State has eight wins this season by ten points or more, showing how dominant they are capable of being.

Meanwhile, Washington has been overwhelmingly average this season as they replaced a large number of starters this season in a “rebuilding” year and sputtered to the finish line. The offense struggled against most of the good defenses they faced and I expect this game to be no different.

I like taking the Mountain West Champions +3.5 here, in addition to a moneyline sprinkle, as they seem to be the better team by a good margin. A fairy-tale ending for Chris Petersen may put this play in jeopardy, but I believe the juice will be worth the squeeze.

Louisiana Tech +7 vs. Miami (FL)

Miami has the looks of a team that has given up. After a late-season resurgence, they ended up dropping the last two games of the season to FIU and Duke. After dropping these two games, I doubt that the Independence Bowl is going to get the juices flowing for the Hurricanes. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz took his Bulldogs to a 9-3 record this season, all while dealing with some key suspensions.

Miami’s defense could slow down Louisiana Tech’s attack, but I think that LA Tech will take this game much more seriously than Miami. This would also take into account the possibility that Miami may have some players sit out before going to the draft. Overall, I think Miami probably still wins this game, but plan on it being closer than seven points.

Illinois +6.5 vs. Cal

I’ve been on the Lovie Smith train all season and I won’t let bowl season change that. Not only do I think that the Illini can cover 6.5.. I think they could win outright. My AGI model has Illinois being favored by 8.5, which is obviously far off the market view of the game. However, my numbers have loved them all season and had them finishing with a 7-5 record this year. Despite laying an egg against Northwestern in the series finale, Lovie Smith and his crew should be able to win their first bowl game since 2014.

Auburn -7.5 vs. Minnesota

As we saw when Auburn played Purdue last year, talent wins out. The overwhelming talent on Auburn’s defensive line should be able to neutralize Minnesota’s attack. The Gopher offensive line this season was 123rd in the country in passing downs sack rate and likely won’t be able to stop Derrick Brown and Co. My AGI model says the spread of this game should be closer to 13-points, in favor of the Tigers. If everyone on Auburn plays, I would expect that they get the job done.

Louisiana -14 vs. Miami (OH)

I went against Miami (OH) heavily in the MAC Championship and I will continue to fade them in this spot. Billy Napier has established the Ragin’ Cajuns as a force in the Sun Belt, finishing this year as a runner-up to the mighty App State Mountaineers. The 10-3 Louisiana team should march into the Lending Tree Bowl and dismantle Miami (OH) for the frauds that they are. This team played more like a four-win team in the regular season than the MAC Champions they became, based on Bill Connelly’s Second Order Win Totals. This seems like the kind of game where things correct and the Redhawks finally get rolled.