Furman/Mississippi State
The Pick: OVER 137.5
We successfully cashed the last free play write up last Friday with DePaul +8.5 upsetting Louisville. But instead of a side, today I am looking at a total for the Furman/Miss St matchup, set to tip-off at 6:00 (ET) in Starkville. Currently sitting at 137.5, I believe we have quite a bit of value here to get over this total.
Furman is coming into this contest averaging 78.2 PPG, led by Senior Guard Alex Hunter, who is averaging a shade under 18 PPG. The Paladins recently came off a tough matchup against UNC and are looking to continue their treacherous trek of competition at Mississippi State, who just finished dismantling Georgia State Tuesday night. Furman has been good to O/U bettors so far this season, going 8-2, while Miss. St is 4-6, but are in the cozy confines of the Humphrey Coliseum and are averaging a touch under 74 PPG.
Both teams are in the Top 70 in Overall Offensive Efficiency and Top 80 in Team Effective FG % (per TeamRankings.com). Furthermore, The Bulldogs are stingy on the Defensive End, ranking 58th in Defensive Efficiency, while Furman is 282 with one of the Top 5 smallest lineups in the country. One of the most vital metrics that I look into for a totals play is overall possessions per game. Furman likes to push it and is 77th in Poss. Per Game, while Miss. State takes a much more methodical approach up the court, ranking in the bottom 50 in pace. Usually that doesn’t bode well for an Over, but something that got my interest was that The Bulldogs were 45th in the country in Effective Possession Ratio, in other words, they make their possessions count with points.
With Mississippi State, led by Junior Guard Iverson Molinar and 2 absolute freight trains in 6’9 Garrison Brooks and 6’11 Tolu Smith, I expect the Bulldogs to feast in the paint on this Furman interior and The Paladins playing catchup with their sharpshooting guards, who are 14th in the country in Team Points from 3 pointers. Furman has proven that they can stay in the game with big teams, so I do not see The Bulldogs stop trying to score. I think the pace will be smooth and if both teams can connect on their Free Throws (both teams over 72% from the charity stripe), I see this game getting OVER the total.
MY PICK: OVER 137.5 (up to 139.5)